Looking to bet on the 2026 Australian Open? Then the below is essential reading. I’ve gone through the latest betting markets with a fine-tooth comb looking for opportunities. From the best outright bet, to value bets and dark horses that are worth a punt, I cover it all on the eve of the tournament kicking off in Melbourne.
Men’s odds & favorites at 2026 Australian Open
For context, here’s the online tennis betting odds for the men’s outright winner market heading into the 2026 Australian Open:
- Jannik Sinner – 1.72 (-139)
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2.50 (+150)
- Novak Djokovic – 13.00 (+1200)
- Daniil Medvedev – 23.00 (+2200)
- Alexander Zverev – 26.00 (+2500)
- Alex de Minaur – 41.00 (+4000)
- Taylor Fritz – 41.00 (+4000)
- Alexander Bublik – 51.00 (+5000)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime – 67.00 (+6600)
- Ben Shelton – 67.00 (+6600)
There’s a clear separation between Sinner and Alcaraz and the rest of the field, but that’s no surprise: they’ve won the last eight majors between them and are a cut above everyone else. Djokovic has the next shortest odds, while Medvedev and Zverev are considered outside chances. The remainder are at odds in excess of 41.00 (+4000) putting them as genuine longshots.
Dark horses
- Bublik – 51.00 (+5000)
- Joao Fonseca – 81.00 (+8000)
- Jakub Mensik – 101.00 (+10000)
- Lorenzo Musetti – 101.00 (+10000)
- Gabriel Diallo – 501.00 (+50000)
Considering the state of the men’s outright market, almost everyone not named Sinner and Alcaraz is a dark horse. These five are my leading contenders to defy the bookies odds and take out the title, as unlikely as it may be. What I’m looking for in a dark horse is three things: upward trajectory, form and a big weapon that has the potential to get hot. All of the above tick these boxes, albeit in varying measures.
Bublik and Diallo have wicked serves, Mensik is no mug on that front either and has a booming backhand; Fonseca can redline on both wings and plays with the crowd behind him brilliantly; Musetti has incredible defense and an increasingly sharp forehand. They’ve all tasted success recently, particularly Bublik and Mensik.
In my eyes, these guys are just as likely – if not more so – to go on a hot run and capitalize on some draw luck as the likes of Fritz and De Minaur, who are priced far shorter. If you’re after big value, these are the names you want to be taking a stab on.
Best outright bets
- Alcaraz @ 2.50 (+150)
- Djokovic to win @ 13.00 (+1200)
- Bublik to win @ 51.00 (+5000)
In my analysis of the men’s draw, I tipped Alcaraz to claim his first Australian Open crown in a fortnight’s time. I’m sticking to that prediction and actually think there’s a fair bit of value in it.
Alcaraz has won seven of his last nine matches against Sinner, his most likely opponent in the final. The Spaniard beat him when they last met in a hardcourt Grand Slam, at the 2025 US Open, and has generally had his rivals number in big matches. Yes, Melbourne is where Sinner has thrived and Alcaraz has struggled; yes, Alcaraz has just had upheaval in his camp; but no, I don’t think that will make a difference.
There’s also a world where Alcaraz doesn’t make it through, and in that case, I’m high on Djokovic or Bublik to take out the title. Each would likely require a little draw luck – it’s hard to see either beating both Alcaraz and Sinner – but should some eventuate, they’ve got the ability to capitalize.
Djokovic has lifted the trophy here 10 times and was unequivocally the next third best player in the world last year. Bublik has been the form player of the last eight months, with a winning record against the top 10 since last April. On their day, both are capable of defeating Sinner or Alcaraz – they’ve each done so in the last year.
Value bets to consider
- Diallo to beat Zverev – 6.00 (+500)
- Bublik to win quarter one – 9.00 (+800)
- Musetti to win quarter three – 10.00 (+900)
For those after some quick action, Diallo takes on Zverev this Sunday in a fascinating first-round match. Zverev is a sucker for early-round struggle in Melbourne – 2024 saw him go five sets with qualifier Lukas Klein in the second round, while the year before that, he went the distance in his opening match against lucky loser Juan Pablo Varillas. Diallo has all the tools to make this clash messy – a big serve, confidence and nothing to lose. Zverev gets through on balance, but odds of 6.00 (+500) are too juicy to stay away from a small bet.
Speaking of value bets, I suggest getting a little bit behind both Bublik and Musetti to win their quarters. I’ve already outlined Bublik’s case – high ceiling, form and proven record – but for Musetti there’s a particular angle I like that revolves around a scheduling nuance.
I expect Djokovic to win his quarter, however, he could be in trouble next Saturday. That’s when the bottom half of the men’s draw plays their third-round matches, and the weather in Melbourne is forecast to be upwards of 34 degrees. Sinner vs Fonseca, should it eventuate, would likely get the Rod Laver night session, leaving Djokovic to play during the day. Given the Serb’s increasing fragility, I’d say there’s a live chance of someone like Brandon Nakashima taking him out in this kind of heat.
Do so, and the draw opens up massively for Musetti. The Italian has been terrible at winning titles the past two years, but is brilliant at going deep in tournaments. It’s a long shot, but if this comes together, I have Musetti getting past Fritz and winning quarter three.
Women’s odds & favorites at 2026 Australian Open
Jumping over to the women’s draw, here’s how tennis bookmakers have the outright winner market priced on the eve of the 2026 Australian Open:
- Aryna Sabalenka – 2.87 (+187)
- Iga Swiatek – 5.50 (+450)
- Elena Rybakina – 7.50 (+650)
- Amanda Anisimova – 8.00 (+700)
- Coco Gauff – 8.00 (+700)
- Mirra Andreeva – 15.00 (+1400)
- Marta Kostyuk – 23.00 (+2200)
- Naomi Osaka – 23.00 (+2200)
- Madison Keys – 29.00 (+2800)
- Belinda Bencic – 34.00 (+3300)
Immediately, it’s clear that the women’s event is far more hotly contested than the men’s, with 10th favorite Bencic still priced at a respectable 34.00 (+3300). Sabalenka still has her nose ahead of the field at 2.87 (+187), but Swiatek, Rybakina, Anisimova and Gauff are all priced in single digits as realistic title contenders. Odds almost double back to Andreeva, with Kostyuk, Osaka, Keys and Bencic even longer.
Dark horses
- Victoria Mboko – 34.00 (+3300)
- Elina Svitolina – 67.00 (+6600)
- Iva Jovic – 151.00 (+15000)
- Jelena Ostapenko – 501.00 (+50000)
Similar to my men’s dark horses, here I’m looking for players with form and big weapons. Mboko and Jovic have both; Svitolina has excellent form and a proven Grand Slam track record; Ostapenko needs no introduction: she’s the queen of dark horses.
For Mboko and Jovic, both come to Melbourne off the back of playing championship matches in Adelaide and Hobart respectively. Those results aren’t through at the time of writing, but both have been playing brilliantly down under.
Svitolina is perfectly poised, having won the title in Auckland a week ago. She’s hitting the ball well, confident, well-rested, and knows what it takes to go deep in a major (she’s made the semis three times and the quarters on 13 occasions).
For Ostapenko, she has absolutely zero form to speak of. The Latvian six-match losing streak into Melbourne. But, her ultra-aggressive style of play is the type that can turn on a dime. Last year, she won two titles despite an overall poor season; the year before, she was a dual titlist for the year before the second week of February. Her ability is there, all it takes is for that momentum to switch and she’s a threat to anyone.
Best outright bets
- Sabalenka – 2.87 (+187)
- Rybakina – 7.50 (+650)
- Mboko – 34.00 (+3300)
The above needs little explanation. I predicted Sabalenka to win in my analysis of the women’s draw and I’m sticking to it. She’s won 38 of her last 40 matches in Australia, having picked up the Brisbane title again last week. Revenge will be top-of-mind for the Belarusian coming into Melbourne after the 2025 final, yet she’ll have plenty of confidence after closing the season out with the US Open title last year.
The conditions suit her big-hitting, aggressive baseline style, and I expect her to claim a third Australian Open crown this time. 2.87 (+187) won’t make anyone a millionaire overnight, but it’s still good value for a player that is the heavy, heavy favorite.
Outside of Sabalenka, Rybakina and Mboko have the best chances of lifting the trophy. Rybakina showed in her late-season tear last year that she’s capable of taking out the world’s best. She’s made the final here previously, and feels like one of the field’s best shots at stopping Sabalenka.
Another player who could spoil the party for Sabalenka is Mboko. The Canadian is seeded to meet Sabalenka in the fourth round. Catch her at this stage of the tournament is Mboko’s best chance of winning – by this stage, she could well be riding a 10+ match winning streak (depending on how she goes in Adelaide), so she wouldn’t be short on confidence.
Value bets to consider
- Quarter one to win – 2.50 (+150)
- Sabalenka vs Rybakina final – 10.00 (+900)
- Leolia Jeanjean to beat Maria Sakkari – 4.33 (+333)
Getting a bet in on quarter one to produce this year’s Australian Open women’s champion is my recommended value bet. For a slightly reduced return, it includes 31 tennis players not named Sabalenka, such as Mboko, Jovic, Kostyuk and Ekaterina Alexandrova. Covering your bases with all these additional ways to win is an excellent play – particularly since Sabalenka and Mboko are two of my tips to go deep this tournament.
As for Sabalenka vs Rybakina, I simply think this is the most likely championship match and 10.00 (+900) feels like a brilliant price. Rybakina is a better, more consistent hard-courter than the likes of Anisimova and Swiatek, who she shares the bottom half of the draw with. She seems to finally be hitting her stride in recent months, and should get through to the final match of the tournament against Sabalenka.
For those that fancy getting some faster returns, my suggested bet is against Sakkari. The Greek player has a propensity to lose first round in majors, losing her opening match of two or more majors the past three seasons. This bet is essentially all about Sakkari, and very little about Jeanjean. Regardless of who’s on the other side of the net, Sakkari finds a way to consistently throw away her opportunities at the Grand Slam level.
