The 2026 Australian Open men’s draw has been released, outlining the paths of 128 hopefuls in Melbourne over the coming fortnight. I’ve poured over every line, breaking down the draw quarter-by-quarter to give my thoughts on who has the best path, what matches to look for early, and who’s got the best shot at making the final weekend.
Men’s 2026 Australian Open draw: Key takeaways
Don’t have time to get into the nitty gritty details? No worries, here are the top-level takeaways you need to know about the 2026 men’s Australian Open draw:
- Djokovic has been drawn in Sinner’s half
- Alcaraz and Zverev are in the other half
- Medvedev has a comfortable path to the semi-finals
- De Minaur plays Berrettini first round
- Tsitsipas and Dimitrov could play in the second round
- Sinner and Fonseca are seeded to meet in the third round
Men’s Australian Open draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Piqued your interest a little? Then you’re in luck, because below, I dive into the men’s Australian Open draw in much, much more detail.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (1)
- Alex de Minaur (6)
- Alexander Bublik (10)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (14)
- Tommy Paul (19)
- Flavio Cobolli (20)
- Frances Tiafoe (29)
- Corentin Moutet (32)
Dark horses
- Matteo Berrettini
- Sebastian Korda
- Reilly Opelka
Early matches to watch
- De Minaur vs Berrettini
- Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby
Alcaraz and De Minaur are the top two seeds in quarter one, and the two couldn’t have more contrasting paths to the quarter-finals.
The Spaniard begins against Adam Walton, then faces Yannick Hanfmann or a qualifier, before taking on either Korda or Moutet, probably. His round-of-16 opponent is likely to be either Paul or Davidovich Fokina, both comfortable match ups for the world No 1.
De Minaur, on the other hand, has an absolute gauntlet from day dot. He opens against former world No 6 and Wimbledon finalist Berrettini, before likely playing big-hitting Hamad Medjedovic in the second round. Then, he’s a good chance at facing two-time major semi-finalist Tiafoe, before quite possibly playing man-of-the-hour, and new Top 10 player, Bublik in the fourth round.
All this to say, it’s hard to see De Minaur maintaining his proud record of deep runs (the Aussie has made five quarters in his last seven slams). Each of his first four opponents are a live chance at upsetting him, so I’m picking Bublik to make the quarters and face Alcaraz instead.
Bublik does need to avoid a banana skin in round one in the form of unorthodox American Brooksby. I’m high on the Kazakh’s professionalism these days though, so I don’t see him falling early. Cobolli in the third round could be tough, but on balance, I’ve got Bublik making the last eight. There, I expect he’ll give Alcaraz a good run, but fall short.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz to beat Bublik.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (7)
- Daniil Medvedev (11)
- Andrey Rublev (13)
- Francisco Cerundolo (18)
- Arthur Rinderknech (24)
- Learner Tien (25)
- Cam Norrie (26)
Dark horses
- Gabriel Diallo
- Marcos Giron
Early matches to watch
- Zverev vs Diallo
- Auger-Aliassime vs Nuno Borges
Zverev heads up the seeds in quarter two along with Auger-Aliassime. But it’s former finalist Medvedev that I’ve got progressing from this section.
Zverev has a very tough start to the tournament, facing big-serving Canadian Diallo first up, then either home favorite Alexei Popyin, or Alexandre Muller (who beat him in 2025). Survive, and it should actually get a little easier for the German, with Norrie and Rublev his next two opponents by seed, both of whom he has strong head-to-heads against.
For Auger-Aliassime, he’s got a tricky match-up initially in Borges. The Portuguese pushed him to a third set last year and has a reputation of being a tough beat, going to five in three of the four majors in 2025. Given Auger-Aliassime’s issues closing out matches at the Grand Slam level, plus the new expectations on him as a top-10 returnee, I worry for him coming into this clash. He’s also got Learner Tien in his section, a certified giant killer.
Medvedev, on the other hand, has Jesper de Jong, Alejandro Tabilo and Arthur Rinderknech as his likely first three matches. Very doable for the Russian who’s caught a bit of form over the past two months with a brace of titles. He’d have to play either Tien (who beat him here last year) or Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round, but get through that, and I fancy him against Zverev, who he’s beaten in six of their last seven.
Quarter-final prediction: Medvedev to beat Zverev.
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Quarter three
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (4)
- Lorenzo Musetti (5)
- Taylor Fritz (9)
- Jakub Mensik (16)
- Jiri Lehecka (17)
- Tallon Griekspoor (23)
- Brandon Nakashima (27)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (31)
Dark horses
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Zizou Bergs
Early matches to watch
- Bergs vs Hurkacz
- Dimitrov vs Tomas Machac
- Laslo Djere vs Stan Wawrinka
- Tsitsipas vs Dimitrov (R2)
There’s lots of exciting early-round action in quarter three – a quarter which I’m picking will give way to yet another Djokovic semi-final run.
The most exciting section to watch early on has former semi-finalist Dimitrov taking on world No 35 Machac in the opening round, with the winner facing former finalist Tsitsipas in all likelihood. Whoever wins that match will then likely take on fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti, who has a comfortable path to what will be an unpleasant third round clash for the Italian.
Elsewhere in the quarter, America’s Fritz won’t mind his placement, despite slipping down to No 9 seed. He has a straightforward first two rounds before likely taking on Lehecka in the third – unless retiring Swiss veteran Wawrinka can have one last fairytale run. Fritz has had Lehecka’s number on balance the last few years, and also won his latest clash against Musetti just a few months ago, so will feel good about getting through here – provided health issues don’t rear their head.
Whether Fritz downs Musetti feels like a moot point though, because Djokovic lurks in the lower section of this quarter and owns a combined 20-1 head-to-head against the pair. He’s got Pedro Martinez first up who may well still be recovering from the disappointment of missing out on the million in the One Point Slam last night. Terrence Atmane or a qualifier are next, with Nakashima his likely third round opponent.
Who Djokovic takes on in the round of 16 is more of an unknown, with Mensik the seed but both Bergs and Hurkacz excellent dark horse candidates. Expect him to get a good workout, but ultimately ease his way through five reasonably comfortable matches to book his fifth straight Grand Slam semi.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic to beat Fritz.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (2)
- Ben Shelton (8)
- Casper Ruud (12)
- Karen Khachanov (15)
- Denis Shapovalov (21)
- Luciano Darderi (22)
- Joao Fonseca (28)
- Valentin Vacherot (30)
Dark horses
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Sebastian Baez
- Jaume Munar
- Gael Monfils
- Marin Cilic
- Alex Michelsen
Early matches to watch
- Mpetshi Perricard vs Baez
- Khachanov vs Michelsen
- Munar vs Ruud (R2)
- Monfils vs Shelton (R2)
There’s a lot going on in this section as well, but it doesn’t change the fact that I’m picking Sinner to beat Shelton in the quarters.
This quarter is chock full of dark horses who could either all flame out in the opening round, or make a splash all the way to the start of the second week. Veterans like Monfils and Cilic will be eager to have one last hurrah, while the likes of Munar, Baez, Michelsen and Mpetshi Perricard all have a good number of wins under their belts already this season.
I suspect their placement in this part of the draw could come at the cost of some seeds going as deep as they’d like, namely Khachanov and Ruud. But regardless of whether these names create some early drama, I’m confident Sinner and Shelton will each navigate the chaos. Shelton has proven to be metronomic at going deep in slams, while Sinner is Sinner.
One speed-bump for Sinner could be the third-round clash against Joao Fonseca. The young Brazilian has been heralded as the most likely candidate to rival Alcaraz and Sinner at the top of the game, claiming two titles and cracking the top 30 as a teenager last year. But, Fonseca has had to pull out of two tournaments already this year due to a back injury. For him to have any hope of challenging Sinner, he’d need to be fully fit with plenty of momentum – neither of which is the case right now.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Shelton.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 men’s Australian Open
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Medvedev
- Semi – Djokovic beats Sinner
- Final – Alcaraz beats Djokovic
It’s a dangerous game picking against an Alcaraz-Sinner final, but that’s what I’m doing. I believe deep down in my bones that Djokovic has one last push in him, and he wouldn’t still be playing if he didn’t think he could conjure up a way to beat Sinner. On his favorite court, at the start of the season, is as good a time as any.
Medvedev could well give Alcaraz a hard run as well – remember he beat him in the US Open semi-finals just over two years ago. I’m not brave enough to predict twin upsets in this year’s semis though, so I’ve got Alcaraz getting past Medvedev in four or five.
I’m also not brave enough to back Djokovic to complete the double over Sinner and Alcaraz. The Serb got him here last year, but with the career slam within reach and Djokovic likely having poured himself out physically to get to the final, my money is on Alcaraz putting him away and bagging major No 7 to start the year.
