And here we are! It is yet time for another edition of the first Slam and players who might surprise us there. As we haven’t seen a lot of tennis yet, these early tournaments are always likely to have some good surprises in store. Think of Joao Fonseca upsetting Rublev last year or even back to the days when Bagdatis shocked the tennis world down under! But who are the players in for a surprise run this year?
ATP – Can we get a new Grand Slam champion?
The overall question remains – will Sincaraz still dominate all the Grand Slams in 2026, or will we see another champion? It is hard to imagine that the big gap of last year got any closer over the offseason, especially if we consider that some main challengers have had challenging times or, like Draper and Rune, are not even playing right now. But, if anybody stands a chance, then it might as well be Felix Auger-Aliassime, who arguably comes off the hottest stretch of the top 10. He is close to his career high, finally seems to be injury free and why not consider him for a first Slam final? His initial game against Nuno Borges is no walkover, but he seems to be as consistent as he has ever been, so he definitely is my dark horse.
Other big names looking for a comeback season include the Brisbane champion Medvedev, who has been mentioned as back for the big title by no other than former No. 1 Andy Roddick. He looks like he is past his motivational struggles, and we all know how dangerous he can be on a hard court. Tommy Paul is also back and in the Adelaide semis as of this time. He could become one of those players that you don’t want to see early in your draw, always ready for a deep run on his favorite surface. Stefanos Tsitsipas looked a lot improved at the United Cup, too – so don’t rule out the Greek for a comeback year to start hot in Australia. Of course, other big names like Zverev or De Minaur shouldn’t be forgotten, but they are rather in line to defend their seeding, judging by their previous matches.
Of course, every good Slam needs an underdog story to captivate people. In 2025, the Brazilian Joao Fonseca amazed everyone with his first three matches, where he not only beat Rublev in Round 1, but also announced himself on the biggest stage of tennis. If you ask me, his opening opponent in this year’s AO might just be the candidate for this in 2026. Eliot Spizzirri is not only into his second quarterfinal in Auckland but plays amazing tennis. With Fonseca struggling with a back injury, we might very well see an even matchup and have Spizzirri score another major win in Australia.
And the finally, I don’t think my main surprise prediction comes as a big bold prediction after the United Cup. Hubi Hurkacz played outstanding tennis against a variety of top players and helped Poland win the title, together with Iga Swiatek. Not only does he seem to be healthy again, but his newly chosen Wilson Blade setup seems to enhance his serve even further. If he can stay healthy and limit time on court early, you don’t want to run into the Polish giant on a hot day out on Rod Laver Arena. He will face another in-form player with Zizou Bergs in round one, which is one of the most exciting matches in Melbourne early. If successful, he could be in for a match against Novak Djokovic in round four, one that I would not want to miss for sure.
Here’s TN’s AO draw analysis for the men.
WTA – Time for a bold prediction
The women’s field might be the most interesting it has been in decades. Even though Sabalenka seems to reign comfortably for the time being, it doesn’t seem as if she or anyone else in the top 5 has a lasting advantage as the men’s top duo. And though Aryna should be considered the favorite as well, this is why I think that the field is wide open for a new champion in Melbourne.
And my bold prediction is that Belinda Bencic (image on top) might be ready for a title down under. Any of her performances in the United Cup was flawless, including a bagel against Iga Swiatek in the final, and there is no reason to believe that she might slow down. She was able to rest a few days now and hopefully can carry the form into the Australian Open, where she will face Katie Boulter in the first round. Not an easy matchup, but it might just be perfect to start sharp and get some confidence.
Others to consider are the Ukrainian stars Svitolina and Kostyuk, who both had great performances in their preparation tournaments. Elina took the title in Auckland, while Marta was runner-up in Brisbane, both with very convincing matches along the way. Especially the former has a lot of experience in big tournaments and with the field being this close, she might just take another step at the first Slam of the year.
The young guns on the women’s side include the ever-so-fast improving Victoria Mboko, who is already as high as No. 17 in the world entering the tournament, the American Iva Jovic and hometown hero Maya Joint. All of them seem to be confident and striving and might just take this flow along with them to their first year of seedings. Especially Mboko has a game that can trouble any player on a given day, if she stays consistent enough and doesn’t try to overpower her opponent.
Read our women’s draw analysis for the AO 2026.
My predictions for the final
With that being said, I think that especially on the men’s side the top stars are hard to bet against, whereas the women might be a bit harder to predict. Swiatek and Gauff are always a force to be reckoned with, but still, I take Bencic for the surprise this time. More info on Australian Open betting.
Men – Alcaraz winning vs Sinner
Women – Bencic winning vs Sabalenka
