Thursday afternoon in Melbourne saw the women’s draw released for the 2026 Australian Open, and I’ve spent the past few hours diving deep into it. Below, I outline my quarter-by-quarter analysis, looking at where the seeds have fallen, which dark horses to watch out for, and what early round matches are essential viewing. Read on for your comprehensive guide to the 2026 Australian Open women’s draw, including final weekend predictions.
Looking for the men’s draw for AO 2026?
Women’s 2026 Australian Open draw: Key takeaways
I won’t bury the lede; here’s what everyone is talking about off the back of the women’s draw announcement this afternoon:
- Sabalenka and Gauff are in the same half
- Swiatek shares a quarter with Rybakina
- Quarter three is an all-American affair (Pegula, Anisimova and Keys)
- Gauff could face Venus Williams in the second round
- Boulter vs Bencic is the pick of the opening matches
Women’s AO draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
For those who are partial to a little more detail, here’s the full monty – each quarter broken down and analysed to a tee.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Jasmine Paolini (7)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (11)
- Clara Tauson (14)
- Victoria Mboko (17)
- Marta Kostyuk (20)
- Emma Raducanu (28)
- Iva Jovic (29)
Dark horses
- Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Early matches to watch
- Paolini vs Sasnovich
Two-time champion Sabalenka leads the seeds in quarter one, with Paolini and Alexandrova her next best competition in this section. I’m high on the Belarusian cruising through to the final weekend, but I think there will be a few other upsets in this part of the draw.
Paolini is scratching around for form with one win in her last six matches. The No 7 seed opens against a player whose momentum couldn’t be more contrasting – Sasnovich has prevailed in seven of her last eight, albeit five of those in qualifying. She’ll be comfortable with the Melbourne conditions having played three matches to earn her spot in the main draw, and I expect she’ll be a real handful for the Italian in round one.
Kostyuk – who made the Brisbane final with three straight top-10 victories last week – will be licking her lips at the section she’s been placed in. She should get through to a third-round clash against Alexandrova, against whom she’ll fancy her chances despite the Russian being seeded 11th.
In Sabalenka’s section, the top seed has a straight forward path to the third round. There, she could face Raducanu (check about her new racquet here) in a clash that the British press will be pining for. I’m not so confident the Brit will make it that far, and instead, it’s the fourth round Sabalenka should keep her eye on. There, I expect she’ll have to take on the in-form Mboko.
The Canadian is still live over in Adelaide, having just upset last year’s Australian Open champion Madison Keys in the quarter-finals. She’ll be a tough beat for Sabalenka, but I’ve got her getting through then repeating last week’s win against Kostyuk.
Read more about Sabalenka’s racquet and gear.
Quarter-final prediction: Sabalenka to beat Kostyuk.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (3)
- Mirra Andreeva (8)
- Elina Svitolina (12)
- Emma Navarro (15)
- Karolina Muchova (19)
- Diana Shnaider (23)
- Dayana Yastremska (26)
- Marketa Vondrousova (32)
Dark horses
- Alexandra Eala
- Barbora Krejcikova
Early matches to watch
- Venus Williams vs Gauff (R2)
- Krejcikova vs Shnaider
This feels like the widest open quarter in the women’s draw by far. Gauff is the top seed, but has been far from bullet proof in recent times, failing to make the last eight of her last two slams. Andreeva is the eighth seed, and she’s equally mercurial, having never made it past the fourth round in Melbourne.
Gauff faces a blockbuster second round against Williams if the 45-year-old wildcard can make it that far. The seven-time Grand Slam champ should be no bother to Gauff at this stage of her career, with Vondrousova waiting on the other side of that clash for the American if she can stay healthy. In the fourth round, it could be another compatriot in Navarro, or Filipino sensation Eala if she can ride the wave of support she’ll undoubtedly garner down under.
For Andreeva, she has a few banana skins early on. The Russian needs some wins to regain confidence after tailing off in 2025, but plays former major semi-finalists Vekic and Maria Sakkari in her first two matches most likely.
The likes of Svitolina and Shnaider are seeds that could punch above their weight here, with the former winning Auckland last week and the latter still alive in Adelaide. They’re on track to meet in the third round, and the winner is my pick to take on Gauff in the quarters. On balance, I’ve got Gauff going through, but it’s not my most confident bet.
Quarter-final prediction: Gauff to beat Svitolina.
The moment you realise Sabalenka and Gauff are pitted on a semifinal collision course ?https://t.co/tjc22nZVuk
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 15, 2026
Quarter three
Seeds
- Amanda Anisimova (4)
- Jessica Pegula (6)
- Madison Keys (9)
- Linda Noskova (13)
- Leylah Fernandez (22)
- Jelena Ostapenko (24)
- Paula Badosa (25)
- Sofia Kenin (27)
Dark horses
- Sloane Stephens
Early matches to watch
- Karolina Pliskova vs Stephens
- Sofia Kenin vs Peyton Stearns
Quarter three sees two seeded Americans on a collision course in Pegula and Anisimova, with another two dangerous compatriots – Keys and Stephens – sandwiched in the middle.
Pegula opens against Anastasia Sakharova then likely takes on McCartney Kessler in a tricky second round clash, with Badosa her reward if she wins. Make it through these three, and she could well play Keys – provided the defending champion can navigate an in-form Stephens, who has seared her way through qualifying this week.
Anisimova has a more straight forward path as she begins her hunt for a third straight major final. The 24-year-old plays Simona Waltert then either Katerina Siniakova or Panna Udvardy in her first two matches. Kenin is seeded for the third round if she can get past Stearns. Who she takes on in the round-of-16 – should she make it that far – is a tricky one to predict, given the mercurial Ostapenko and Noskova both sit in that section.
I do have Anisimova getting out of her 16th, however I’m not so confident about Pegula. The 31-year-old has to slow down some time, and while she hasn’t shown any signs results-wise yet, I’m picking she’ll trip up before the quarters here. Keys is my default to move through in her absence, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this was the section where someone unexpectedly caught form.
Quarter-final prediction: Anisimova to beat Keys.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Elina Rybakina (5)
- Belinda Bencic (10)
- Naomi Osaka (16)
- Liudmila Samsonova (18)
- Elise Mertens (21)
- Maya Joint (30)
- Anna Kalinskaya (31)
Dark horses
- Katie Boulter
- Daria Kasatkina
- Lulu Sun
Early matches to watch
- Boulter vs Bencic
The bottom quarter of the women’s draw is about as packed as it can get. Genuine title contenders Swiatek and Rybakina are jostling alongside the likes of four-time major champion Osaka and the in-form Bencic, as well as a host of dangerous dark horses.
Swiatek’s form is questionable with a brace of losses at the WTA Finals to round out 2025, followed up by two more defeats to close the United Cup earlier this month. She has a comfortable start in Melbourne, however, with qualifier Yue Yuan up first then either Renata Zarazua or Marie Bouzkova in the second.
She should be untroubled in the third round as well, with Kalinskaya seeded to be her opponent. The Pole will likely play Osaka in the round of 16, who has two comfortable openers before a possible clash against Samsonova in the third.
The section above has plenty of drama waiting in the wings, however. Rybakina is seeded to make it out, but has to survive Kiwi dark horse Sun or Australia’s Joint in the third round – both tough prospects. Navigate those, and she’ll likely have one of Boulter, Bencic, Mertens or Kasatkina awaiting her.
While this is a chunk of the draw where plenty of different permutations could unfold, I do think quality will rise to the top and we’ll see an on-seed quarter.
Quarter-final prediction: Rybakina to beat Swiatek.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 women’s Australian Open
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Gauff
- Semi – Rybakina beats Anisimova
- Final – Sabalenka beats Rybakina
Over in my analysis of the men’s draw I boldly picked against Jannik Sinner lifting the trophy. Here, I won’t be doing the same regarding Sabalenka. The Belarusian is simply too hard to beat on Australian soil, I don’t see her getting upset like she did last year.
Gauff at her best can be a real handful for Sabalenka, with her high loopy shots and extraordinary defence. This is nothing new for the top seed though, and I see her playing with more and more maturity each season. Combine this with Gauff woes on the second serve which still haven’t been ironed out, and I’ve got Sabalenka getting through in straights.
In the other semif-final, I can’t get past how comprehensive Rybakina’s win over Anisimova was in Riyadh last November. The Kazakh dropped just four games, and while I’m sure Anisimova will put in an improved effort, if Rybakina makes it this deep, she’ll be playing her best brand of tennis. I have her through in three.
As for the championship match, Sabalenka claiming the US Open last year was huge. She’ll be playing freely here, as opposed to having the monkey on her back of a year plus without a major crown. She leads their head-to-head 8-6 and while the last one went Rybakina’s way, I can’t see Sabalenka losing consecutive Melbourne finals.
Outright betting odds for Sabalenka is 2.90 or +190, learn more about Australian Open betting. Let us know your own predictions for the women’s draw in the comments below.
