And here we are, it is already time for the last Grand Slam tournament of the year, the US Open. As we are just days away from the start (check our draw analysis of the US Open here), let’s look at the women’s field and the possible surprises there. Apart from the always favored stars, such as Sabalenka or Swiatek, who can win it all and who might be in for a hard time?
The favorites
Of course, Aryna Sabalenka comes into this tournament as World No. 1 and the highest rated favorite. After winning the initial Slam of the year, she followed with a final and semi- final performance in Paris and London, but now we are back on her favored hard-court surface. She might have lost against Rybakina in Cincinnati, but given she had a long break after Wimbledon, it seems like Aryna will be back healthy and recovered for New York. She not only is the defending champion but has reached at least the semis in the last four editions of the US Open. That is why she will surely be the top-rated player in the draw in 2025.
Behind her, both in the rankings and the role of favorite, is the newly crowned Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek. Not only did she win in London, but she also won the last big tournament in Cincinnati, where she beat Rybakina, Kostyuk and Paolini amongst others. It seems like the win on grass has re-ignited her game, which seemed in crisis all the way up to her beloved clay swing. After reaching the finals of the newly designed Mixed competition, it seems that Swiatek will also come in as a force to be reckoned with in singles. She is a former US Open champion, winning in 2022 and even though hard-court might not be her all-time favorite, she comes into this tournament as the second highest valued player in the field.
The next players in the ranking pose a bigger question mark, with Coco Gauff not really living up to expectations after her maiden Paris win. The young American had a tough draw in London and since has played solid yet not outstanding tennis. The same accounts for her compatriot Jessica Pegula, who comes off a sub-par Grand Slam season, not reaching a single quarterfinal. In New York, she will have to defend a lot of points from last year’s final and will have to prove her recently improved form. The third American, Madison Keys is the everlasting surprise – one day she can beat anyone, the other she might fall to the World No.
But if she can find her serve and groundstrokes again, she might be in for another surprise. The same accounts for Paolini and Andreeva, who had great moments this season but also still struggle with consistency. I would say that Mirra Andreeva is probably the third strongest player in the top 8, who might come in as a problem for many others.
Possible surprises
That leads us to the remaining two women in the top 10, who are actually my two choices for a possible surprise appearance in the final. Surprise might of course be the wrong wording for the recent Wimbledon finalist and a former Wimbledon champion, Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina. But they both have their very own momentum, with Anisimova playing possibly the season of her life, reaching a first Grand Slam final and being rewarded with the first top 10 ranking on top of it.
She will be playing in front of a “hometown” crowd, her game suits the surface well and she could mean trouble for about every player, as we have seen in
London. Elena Rybakina on the other hand had an up-and-down season, with coaching challenges, bad results and then again wins again the top players, as recently as in Cincinnati against Sabalenka. Her serve is second to none and if she can keep her unforced errors in check, she will also be one of the dark horses of the US Open.
Other in-form players include the Danish Clara Tauson, who has quietly snook up to World No. 15 and plays a mean serve combined with fierce baseline play. At only 22 years of age, Tauson might reach the top 10 if she can produce a second week run. Another young surprise is of course Canadian sensation Victoria Mboko. She started the season on the ITF circuit well outside of the top 200, and after winning in Montreal, she is already into the world top 25. With no points to defend in New York, she could easily further climb the ranking given a good draw.
Other players, who might not be ready for a deep run yet but could outplay their position, include Anna Kalinskaya, a resurgent Emma Raducanu, German Eva Lys and young American Hailey Baptiste. The French Open sensation Lois Boisson is back, too – even if her tour-level experience on hard-court is not the biggest yet, she definitely has the game to impress in New York.
On the other hand, some players seem like they are not quite ready for the US Open or who might have a hard time living up to their seeding or position. While Qinwen Zheng is still out of action after her surgery, Paula Badosa also withdrew with ongoing back problems. Daria Kasatkina did not look as good throughout the last months, as did Beatrid Hadded Maia. Add in former top 10 players Marketa Vondrousova and Barbora Krejcikova, who both also are
looking to find their form respectively.
A small prediction and your favorites
All in all, the women’s field is stacked and there might be quite some surprises from young guns such as Andreeva and Mboko or by players on their best seasons, such as Anisimova and Tauson. But it seems that the two favorites are clearly Sabalenka and Swiatek, seeded at one and two. These might just meet in the final again, but we will see who will challenge them.
Let us know your favorites in the comments!
