Jannik Sinner is looking as strong as ever in the hunt for his first Roland Garros title and there are not many players that can even put up a proper fight. On Wednesday, in the quaterfinal, he is up against an interesting player in Alexander Bublik, which surprised everyone with his 3-1 win over Jack Draper in the last round.
Sinner, Italy’s top seed, has only lost one match this season, the Rome final against Alcaraz. Of course, he was out for three months with a doping ban but his form seem to have remained from the Australian Open title in January, to say the least. At Roland Garros, he’s yet to drop a set, cruising through Arthur Rinderknech, Richard Gasquet, Jiri Lehecka (6-0, 6-1, 6-2) and Andrey Rublev (6-1, 6-3, 6-4).
His clay game, 76% first-serve points won and 46% break-point conversion, is clinical as always.
Alexander Bublik is experiencing his best Grand Slam run at Roland Garros and he called his game against Draper “one of the best days of my life and one of the best matches I have ever played in my life,”. There were not many that thought Draper would be out of the tournament at this stage. Having also outed Alex de Minaur after being 2 sets down, we have to take the tricky Bublik serious this time.
His game relies a lot on service-game wins, variation and trick shots, but he’s a much more consistent player now than we have seen previously this season.
Head-to-Head
Sinner leads the head-to-head 3-1, though they’ve never met on clay. Bublik’s lone victory came in Halle 2023 (7-6(5), 6-2) when Sinner retired mid-match. The last completed match between these two players were at the Libema Open on grass in Holland in 2023 when Sinner won 6-4, 6-2.
Odds and Predictions for Sinner vs Bublik
No, we will not predict Sinner to stop his RG run here, even though the odds are a bit over the top. 1.02 for Sinner and 18.00 for Bublik shows what the bookies think about this quarterfinal.
Maybe a lot of variation in the game is what is needed to disturb Sinners rhythm, and if one player can find that it’s Bublik. The fact remains though that Sinners high level consistent game is a nightmare for most players on tour and he will win this one as well, possibly in straight sets again.
With these kind of odds it’s worth it to look at the hcp betting odds and we found value in backing Bublik with a +9.5 hcp at odds 1.72 or -137.5.
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