It’s quarterfinal day at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, below is a preview for two of tomorrow’s matches, Arthur Gea vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur, with our predictions and best bets.
Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Arthur Gea is the red-hot player on tour at the moment and he’s on an impressive run again. The 21-year-old Frenchman is playing his first ever Masters 1000 and is already in the quarterfinals, following wins over Jaime Faria, Ugo Humbert, Ben Shelton and then 13th seed Jakub Mensik, whom he beat 7-6(4), 6-4 after trailing 0-3 in the first-set tiebreak. He’s up to a career-high No. 56 and guaranteed a top-50 debut on Monday, and he’s won 13 of his last 15 tour-level matches since July, a stretch that includes his first ATP title in Los Cabos in August.
Davidovich Fokina has won a pair of tight matches to get here. He saved a match point against Frances Tiafoe in the third round and then ended Hubert Hurkacz’s nine-match winning streak in Shanghai, 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6), converting his third match point after being blown away in the opening set. That’s two third-set tiebreaks in a row, and he’s now looking for his third title of the season after Mallorca in June and Chengdu two weeks ago, where he beat Hurkacz in the final.
This is a first meeting between the two.
Predictions and best bets
Gea’s serve has been a big weapon this week, 11 aces and 80% of his first-serve points won against Mensik, and he’s playing with nothing to lose. But Davidovich Fokina has been through more of these situations, he’s coming off a title run, and his defense and variety should give Gea problems in a longer match. The Spaniard might be the fresher player here and I think we will see three sets and possibly a long match.
My bet: Davidovich Fokina to win in three sets
Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur
Zverev has already banked the biggest prize of the week. He clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking on Monday, after Alcaraz lost to Zizou Bergs and with Sinner out for the season, and at 29 he becomes the oldest player to finish a year at No. 1 for the first time. On court it’s been less comfortable: 6-4, 7-6(4) over Wu Yibing, 6-4, 6-7(8), 6-3 over Halys and then a draining 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1) win over Bublik in which he said his ankle flared up and his level dropped from the second set on.
De Minaur has the opposite momentum. He retired from the Beijing final against Djokovic with an adductor injury, but he’s looked fine in Shanghai, going through on a walkover, then beating Sakamoto 7-6(6), 6-4 and Khachanov 6-3, 6-4 in 1 hour 25 minutes. It’s his second straight quarterfinal here.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 8-2 in official tour-level meetings, but De Minaur has won the last two matches, both at the Laver Cup, including a 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9 comeback in London last month.
Predictions
The Laver Cup results are worth noting, but they’re exhibition matches on much slower indoor courts. On these conditions in Shanghai I think Zverev will command this match and continue his fine form this season.
My bet: Zverev to win in two sets
