We’re now at the first semifinal of the 2026 Shanghai Masters, and we’ll see Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina face off for the eight time on tour on Saturday. This is our preview with some predictions.
Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Zverev is the top seed and has the year-end No. 1 ranking already in the bag, but he’s still scrapping for every win in Shanghai. He had to survive two sets decided by tiebreaks against Halys and Bublik, the latter 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1) with his ankle bothering him, before producing his cleanest match of the week in the quarterfinals, a 6-4, 6-4 win over De Minaur in 77 minutes in which he saved all five break points he faced. It’s his third Shanghai semifinal and his first since 2019, and his fifth Masters 1000 semifinal of the season.
Davidovich Fokina, the 25th seed, has been through a different week. His route to the last four came via Brooksby, a match-point-saving epic against Tiafoe in the third round and a 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(6) comeback over Hurkacz, in which he let two match points slip before converting a third. His quarterfinal against Gea ended after 22 minutes when the young Frenchman retired with an injury trailing 1-4, which means he’s had a lot more rest than you’d expect from his week. He arrives off the Chengdu title two weeks ago and has two titles this year, after Mallorca in June.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 6-1. He’s won the last two, in Madrid in 2025, 2-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(0), and in Paris later that year, 6-2, 6-4, with the Spaniard’s only win coming at the Canada Masters in 2023, 6-1, 6-2.
Predictions and best bets
Davidovich Fokina will be the fresher player, and his drop shots and defensive retrieving can drag Zverev into unpleasant rallies. But the surface in Shanghai is fast, which really seem to suit Zverev’s serve, and he’s beaten the Spaniard in every meeting but one.
I think the Spaniard will produce a decent effort in this one, and get one set, but I expect Zverev to impose himself and reach the final eventually.
