The second of two ATP 500 tournaments (see also our ATP Tokyo preview) this week begins in Beijing on Thursday, with Jannik Sinner heading the draw at the 2025 China Open. Can any of the other 31 hopefuls stop the Italian’s push for title number three this year? We dig into the latest odds and outline the top value bets ahead of the first match.
ATP Beijing Odds and Favorites
Betting sites have priced the outright winner market in Beijing as follows:
Men’s 2025 China Open Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 1.50 (-200)
- Alexander Zverev @ 7.00 (+600)
- Alex de Minaur @ 12.00 (+1100)
- Alexander Bublik @ 15.00 (+1400)
- Lorenzo Musetti @ 15.00 (+1400)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 19.00 (+1800)
As expected, Sinner is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Second and third seeds Zverev and De Minaur are his closest competition, but they still sit back at 7.00 (+600) and 12.00 (+1100) respectively. Behind them, the likes of Bublik, Musetti and Medvedev are outside chances, before odds lengthen even further for contenders such as Jakub Mensik (26.00, +2500) and Andrey Rublev (29.00 (+2800).
Top Dark Horses for ATP Beijing 2025
Spoiler alert: we’re predicting an upset in Beijing this week. Here are some of the dark horse contenders to consider:
- Francisco Cerundolo
- Corentin Moutet
- Adrian Mannarino
Francisco Cerundolo @ 41.00 (+4000)
It’s been a hot and cold season for Cerundolo, who currently sits just outside of the world’s top 20 with a 34-20 record on the year. The Argentinian has cooled off slightly after a searing start to 2025, collecting nine losses in his last 15 matches.
However, there’s something to be said of Cerundolo rubbing shoulders with high caliber players like Taylor Fritz and De Minaur over the weekend as part of the winning Team World at Laver Cup. He could very well carry this momentum into Beijing, and rekindle some of the level that saw him collect four top-10 wins in the first half of this season.
Corentin Moutet @ 81.00 (+8000)
Moutet has quietly had his best-ever year on the ATP Tour, reaching a career-high ranking of No 37 in the world last week. As always, he’s been up and down, but his highs have been impressive, with wins over Fritz, Medvedev and Holger Rune so far in 2025.
He arrives at the China Open having won both his Davis Cup matches then made the semi-finals of the ATP 250 in Hangzhou last week. With Tallon Griekspoor in the opening round then the shaky Zverev looming next, Moutet has a great shot at stringing together another run here.
Adrian Mannarino @ 151.00 (+15000)
This dark horse comes with a caveat: as of writing, Mannarino hasn’t yet qualified for the main draw. Should the Frenchman win his final round of qualifying, however, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with.
Last year and for the first half of 2025, it seemed as though the 37-year-old’s career was coming to a close. After cracking the top 20 in early 2024, his level plummeted, with four seven-or-more-match losing streaks, two of which saw him go winless for 10 straight matches.
But midway through this season, Mannarino turned things around. Since Wimbledon, he’s 20-7 across all levels with victories over the likes of Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton. His unorthodox flat, redirection hitting will be a handful on the Beijing surface.
Betting Tips and Value Bets for Men’s China Open 2025
While any of the dark horses above are worth a punt, we also suggest taking a look at the following bets on the ATP China Open:.
- Sinner Stage of Elimination – Quarter-Finals @ 8.50 (+750)
We alluded to an upset in Beijing earlier, and here it is: Sinner will catch a rare defeat in the Chinese capital. The Italian has not played since his loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open final. Afterwards, he spoke clearly about his need to change up his game style to be less predictable, even going as far as saying that he’d be willing to lose matches in the future in pursuit of this.
Undoubtedly, Sinner will have an eye on next month’s Masters 1000 in Shanghai, where there’s every chance he’ll play Alcaraz again. With this in mind, it makes total sense that this week would hold less weight, and be more about experimenting.
The top seed has the highly consistent Karen Khachanov in his quarter, and could well come unstuck against him in the quarter-finals, should he try out a new approach. There’s also the prospect of a mercurial player such as Alexandre Muller or Fabian Marozsan being Sinner’s quarter-final opponent, which brings its own merits for this bet.
- De Minaur to Win @ 12.00 (+1100)
With Sinner out of the picture, our pick to win the China Open is De Minaur. The Aussie played brilliantly for Team World at the Laver Cup over the weekend, winning each of his singles ties in straight sets and picking up a doubles victory for good measure.
While this section of the calendar can bring challenges from a concentration point of view for some players, De Minaur is the consummate professional. Expect him to bring his top level and raise another trophy early next week, taking advantage of his draw opening up in Beijing.
- Mpetshi Perricard to Beat Musetti @ 3.50 (+250)
An excellent value bet is on offer in the first round of the Beijing action when Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard meets Musetti on Friday. While this punt is far from a sure-thing, we think Musetti is over valued here given his tough loss in Chengdu.
The Italian blew two championship points in the ATP 250 final, missing out on yet another title. He’s now lost his last six finals in a row across all levels and is titleless since 2022, despite being a regular in the top 10. His courtside tears after losing to Alejandro Tabilo showed just how much bagging another title means to him, and it would be no surprise if he carries something of a mental hangover into round one of the China Open.
Mpetshi Perricard isn’t in the best form at the moment, but he still has the game to beat Musetti. Should the Frenchman have a good serving day, he’ll be able to take great advantage of Musetti’s one-handed backhand and get through this one.
