The Asian swing of the ATP Tour is well underway, with the Korea Open in Tokyo one of two 500-level events taking place this week. We preview the odds, favorites, dark horses and best bets below, including a 23.00 (+2200) punt on who we think will take out the title.
ATP Tokyo Odds and Favorites
Before we layout our betting recommendations for the tennis action in Tokyo, here’s a look at how bookmakers have priced the title market:
Men’s 2025 Korea Open Betting Odds
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.62 (-161)
- Taylor Fritz @ 6.00 (+500)
- Tomas Machac @ 19.00 (+1800)
- Casper Ruud @ 23.00 (+2200)
- Denis Shapovalov @ 23.00 (+2200)
- Holger Rune @ 23.00 (+2200)
There’s a heavy favorite to win the 2025 Korea Open, and that’s recently-crowned world No 1 Alcaraz. The Spaniard sits well above the rest of the field at just 1.62 (-161) to claim his eighth trophy of the year, with Fritz his only real competition at 6.00 (+500).
Behind these two, it’s anyone’s guess, with Machac, Ruud, Shapovalov, Rune and a host of others all paying between 19.00 (+1800) and 23.00 (+2200).
Top Dark Horses for ATP Tokyo 2025
Given the make up of the outright betting market in Tokyo, there’s never been a better time to take a punt on a dark horse. Here are our top three candidates.
- Frances Tiafoe
- Matteo Berrettini
- Sebastian Korda
Frances Tiafoe @ 34.00 (+3300)
It hasn’t been a great season for Tiafoe, with the American holding a 26-21 record in 2025 that has him close to slipping out of the top 30. However, there’s no denying Big Foe’s talent. When circumstances click, he’s electric on court and close to unstoppable.
Given the pressure of the North American hardcourt swing – and all the points he had to defend – is now over, there’s every chance he plays freely here in Tokyo and makes a title run. While he’s lost first-round here the past two years, in 2022 he did make the final, so it’s not like a deep run would be unprecedented.
Matteo Berrettini @ 41.00 (+4000)
Another player who has had a disappointing year is Berrettini. The Italian has once again struggled to sting matches together, with injuries hampering his time on court. However, as with Tiafoe, Berrettini’s top level is sensational – there’s a reason he’s claimed 10 titles and made a Grand Slam final.
He also has a track record of hitting a purple patch of form with little notice. So while his recent injury issues lengthen the betting odds of him winning the Korea Open, we see it as an opportunity for some value, rather than a cause for concern.
Sebastian Korda @ 51.00 (+5000)
Speaking of injury-riddled players, Korda is back on Tour and looking to improve on his underwhelming 14-11 record this season. The 25-year-old is in a section of the Tokyo draw that could see him come up against second seed Fritz in the third round – a player who he beat last time they met. Of course, there’s a question whether Korda can string together five matches at the moment, but should his body hold out, the American has the talent.
Betting Tips and Value Bets for Korea Open 2025
While getting some money in behind any of the dark horses we’ve outlined is a great idea, here are a few other bets to consider at the Korea Open this week:
- Fritz to Win @ 6.00 (+500)
Fritz arrives in Tokyo having just beaten back-to-back top-five players at the Laver Cup over the weekend. The American starred for Team World, first taking out Alcaraz before sealing the victory on day three with a win over Alexander Zverev.
It’s not like this form has come out of nowhere, either. Fritz is No 5 in the world, with 43 wins for the season so far including a semi-final run at Wimbledon and duel titles on the grass before that.
The 27-year-old is also the consummate professional, so while blips in concentration are a concern at this stage of the season, they’re unlikely to be an issue for Fritz. He’ll be motivated to get through to the final here, where he’ll no doubt hope to meet Alcaraz again and prove that their Laver Cup clash was no fluke.
Given he’s paying a healthy 6.00, it’s hard to not back him here. Sure, Alcaraz winning is more likely, but there’s a lot to like about Fritz in this spot – we actually don’t expect Alcaraz to make the final.
- Medjedovic to Beat Rune @ 2.50 (+150)
A tantalizing first-round clash awaits in Tokyo with Hamad Medjedovic coming up against third-seed Rune. We’re tipping an upset here, given Rune’s patchy form and Medjedovic’s record against the Dane.
Rune is an underwhelming 29-18 in 2025, having fallen out of the top-10 again. He’s lost two of his last three matches, and is notorious for slipping up in the early rounds of tournaments against lower-ranked opponents. Medjedovic beat him earlier this year when the two met in the Davis Cup qualifiers, and we expect the Serbian’s consistency from the baseline will again trouble the erratic Rune.
- Shapovalov to Win @ 23.00 (+2200)
This punt is a much longer shot. We can’t technically call Shapovalov a dark horse, given he’s fourth-favorite at the bookies, but the reality is that the Canadian is very much seen as a title outsider.
However, it’s easy to forget that Shapovalov has already claimed two titles this season. The former top-10 player has re-found his best level at times in 2025, and while consistency hasn’t been his forte, he’s had a tendency to thrive in the low-pressure sections of the tennis calendar.
This spot – early in the Asian swing, before the Shanghai Masters and indoor tennis kicks off – is exactly the kind of time that a relaxed Shapovalov plays his best tennis. His twin titles speak to what happens when he can bring his top level, and with odds of 23.00 (+2200), backing the 26-year-old to go on another hot run is a great value bet.
