We’ve reached the decisive day in Buenos Aires with Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie fighting for the ATP Buenos Aires title this Sunday. The match is scheduled for 4:00 pm local time and this is the final that everyone wanted to see, as they are the first two seeds on this event. Continue reading this article to find out our detailed analysis and betting tips, as well as the best sportsbooks where you can place your bets.
Alcaraz vs Norrie Betting Odds
– Odds are subject to change –
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Betting Preview for Alcaraz vs Norrie – ATP Buenos Aires Final
Carlos Alcaraz continues his quest for a first title in 2023, defeating fellow countryman Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-2 6-2 in just 77 minutes. This was Alcaraz’s most impressive performance of the week and he’s now just one win away from claiming his 7th career title, the first since his victory at the US Open last year.
Alcaraz broke Zapata Miralles’ serve five times and won 69% of the points in his serve, a clear improvement from the previous rounds. The world no.2 will also be looking to extend his impressive record in finals, as he won six of the eight he played so far on the ATP Tour.
In the final Alcaraz will face Cameron Norrie, one of the most consistent players in the game. The 27-year-old Brit is making his second appearance in Buenos Aires and is just one win away from claiming his 5th career title.
To reach the decisive match, Norrie had to fight hard to beat Juan Pablo Varillas 7-6(5) 6-4 in one hour and 54 minutes. It was a very solid display from Norrie on serve, winning 72% of his service points and dropping serve just once in 11 service games.
Despite dropping a set in two of his previous three matches in Buenos Aires, Norrie’s serve has been very impressive all week long. The world no.12 won 83.3% of his service games, which is 4% above his average on this surface over the last 12 months.
Alcaraz vs Norrie Head-to-Head
This will be the 5th official meeting between these two players with Alcaraz leading 3-1 in their head-to-head. However, Norrie won their most recent meeting at the Cincinnati Masters in 2022.
From their previous four meetings only one of them was on clay, at the Madrid Masters last year. Alcaraz emerged victorious but needed three sets, defeating Norrie 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3 in a very tight match.
Alcaraz vs Norrie Betting Prediction
The sportsbooks are considering Alcaraz the heavy favorite to get the win and it’s hard to go against him on this surface. Nevertheless, Norrie has always been a tough opponent for the Spaniard and is hard to find any value on his current price. The Brit is a very underrated player on clay and although he had some troubles to reach this stage, he’s a tremendous competitor and never goes down without a fight.
It should be a very interesting encounter with Alcaraz trying to outplay Norrie with his firepower. The Spaniard will need to play his best game as Norrie is extremely solid and won’t give him any free points.
Looking at the different tennis betting markets for this game, the moneyline is a market to avoid in our opinion. Even though we believe that Alcaraz will win in the end, the odds of -526, which are available in the best sportsbooks for tennis betting, doesn’t present any value for the bettors.
On other markets there might be some interesting opportunities. Both Norrie’s spread and the Over look good approaches, as the Brit should make this a closer contest than the sportsbooks think. Norrie has the game to bother Alcaraz and he already showed that in the past.
The spread line for Norrie is +5.5 and is currently available at -128, a good price considering that it will be covered with a 4-6 3-6 defeat, for example. For the over you will need more games, as that betting market is at Over 20 with odds of -110, but it can be also a good option as this might be a three-set encounter.
Regardless of how you choose to approach this game, the value seems to be on Norrie’s side to make this tough for Alcaraz. We should see some moments of brilliance from the Spaniard but also some deeps during the match that Norrie will take advantage with his outstanding consistency and accurate shots.
