It’s round of 16 day at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, here’s a preview for today’s matches, Flavio Cobolli vs. Matteo Berrettini and Alexander Zverev vs. Tallon Griekspoor, with our predictions and best bets.
Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Berrettini
It’s an all-Italian derby in Vienna, and with the race to Turin still tight, there’s plenty on the line. Cobolli, the fourth seed and world No. 6, is chasing his second title of the season after winning in Acapulco, and he got through his opener against wild card Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in a little over two hours. He arrives off a Lyon semifinal last week where he lost to Musetti 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 after having had four match points of his own.
Berrettini, ranked No. 48, has had an inconsistent season and says he wants to finish it well. He started in Vienna with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and he knows the tournament well, having reached the semifinals here in 2019.
The two have never met in a tour-level singles match.
Predictions
Berrettini’s serve and forehand are a dangerous combination on a fast indoor court, and he’s capable of beating anyone when he’s on, but Cobolli is the more consistent and the better mover, and he’s the player with the momentum and best form right now. I expect a competitive match with a few tight games on serve, but I give Cobolli the edge.
My bet: Cobolli to win in three sets
Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor
There’s a lot riding on this one for Zverev. A place in the quarterfinals would guarantee him the world No. 1 ranking for the first time, officially from 2 November, on top of the year-end No. 1 he’s already clinched. He’s been made to work for it in Vienna so far, though, saving four match points in a 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(11) win over wild card Martin Landaluce in three hours and five minutes.
Griekspoor is a much more dangerous opponent than his ranking suggests. He won the title in Brussels last Sunday, coming back from a set down against Jan-Lennard Struff, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, in the final for his fourth career title and his first since Mallorca in 2025. He won his first-round match in Vienna against Brandon Nakashima, 6-1, 4-6, 7-6(2), and he’s on a six-match winning streak.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 9-3, but Griekspoor won the most recent meeting, a 6-7(3), 6-2, 6-4 upset in the second round of the Canadian Open in Montreal in August.
Predictions and best bets
Griekspoor has the confidence, the form and the recent head-to-head result to make this a hard match for the German, and he has a history of taking Zverev deep. But Zverev has the bigger weapons on fast indoor courts, the record against him and a huge incentive to close it out. Fatigue might be a factor at this point for Griekspoor as well, I predict that he will take a set, but not more.
My bet: Zverev to win in three sets, at odds 3.40 or +240 (US).
