It’s title day at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur, and the Spaniard is entering the match as heavy favorite.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Alcaraz has been the most impressive player in the draw, and he hasn’t dropped a set all week. He beat Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 7-6(2) in the semifinals in 1 hour 36 minutes, winning 78% of his first-serve points and ending Medvedev’s seven-match winning streak. It’s his first Vienna final, the fifth final of his season and the 37th of his career, and a win would bring his fourth title of 2026 after the Australian Open, Doha and Tokyo. He’s also on a 25-match winning streak at ATP 500 level, which dates back to his loss in the Barcelona final in 2025.
De Minaur has had a great week, not at least when looking at the ATP Finals race… but his route has been a lot more difficult. He went to a deciding tiebreak with Zverev in the semifinals, winning 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4) in 2 hours and 30 minutes. It’s his first Vienna final, and he’s unbeaten indoors this season at 10-0.
H2H
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-0, and De Minaur has won just two sets across the six meetings: Barcelona (clay) in 2022 in the semifinals, Queen’s (grass) in 2023 in the final, Rotterdam (indoor hard) in the 2025 final, Barcelona (clay) in the 2025 quarterfinals, the ATP Finals in 2025 (indoor hard, round robin) and the Australian Open quarterfinals in January, which Alcaraz won 7-5, 6-2, 6-1.
Predictions and best bets
De Minaur is the better indoor player than his reputation suggests, and his run of form this week has been excellent, so I wouldn’t write him off completely. But he has never taken a match off Alcaraz, he has to back up a long semifinal against a rival who is sharper on serve, and Alcaraz has looked unbeatable in Vienna. It’s just hard to see how he will overcome this challenge.
I’ll back the Spaniard to wrap it up without needing a decider.
My bet: Alcaraz to win in straight sets, at odds around 1.67 or -150 (US).
