The Paris Masters draw dropped on Friday, and it’s set up an intriguing final week of the Masters 1000 season. I’ve been digging through it for betting angles. Below you’ll find the outright picks and value bets I’d be backing in Paris.
2026 Paris Masters: Key points
- Djokovic avoids Alcaraz until the final – he’s landed in Zverev’s half, but as the 10th seed he gets no bye and opens against Vacherot
- Alcaraz has never made the Paris final – he’s 5-5 across five appearances at this event
- Paris loves an outsider – three of the last nine champions were long shots before the tournament started
- Turin spots are still up for grabs – four ATP Finals places are open, and Paris is the last event that counts
- Fils and Cobolli are fitness doubts – both picked up injuries this week
Odds & favorites at 2026 Paris Masters
These are the outright prices I’d expect tennis bookmakers to offer for Paris:
- Carlos Alcaraz – 3.00 (+200)
- Alexander Zverev – 4.00 (+300)
- Daniil Medvedev – 8.00 (+700)
- Taylor Fritz – 13.00 (+1200)
- Ben Shelton – 13.00 (+1200)
- Novak Djokovic – 17.00 (+1600)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – 17.00 (+1600)
- Rafael Jodar – 17.00 (+1600)
- Alex de Minaur – 21.00 (+2000)
- Flavio Cobolli – 26.00 (+2500)
History says don’t trust the favorite in Paris. Karen Khachanov beat Djokovic in the 2018 final, and Holger Rune did it again as an unseeded player in 2022. Jack Sock’s title in 2017 was an even bigger shock. It’s the last big event of a long season, meaning tired top players lose to hungrier ones here regularly.
That means I’m wary of both players at the top of the market. Alcaraz will be favorite (he was 13-0 at ATP 500 events this year heading into his Vienna semi-final). Paris has never suited him, though. Last year, Cameron Norrie knocked him out in his opening match. I’m passing at 3.00 (+200).
I’d stay away from Zverev at 4.00 (+300) too. He’s been the best player of 2026, winning Roland-Garros and the US Open, and he lifted this trophy in 2024. But he’s playing deep into this week in Vienna, and a newly crowned No 1 isn’t someone I want at a short price. Lorenzo Musetti or Hubert Hurkacz could easily catch him cold in his opener.
Medvedev has had a superb fall, winning Hangzhou and Almaty and reaching the semis in Beijing and Shanghai. He won here in 2020 and his game is made for indoor hard courts. My one concern is that he’d only beaten two top-10 players all year heading into Vienna. Shelton is even harder to back. He’s 2-4 since his US Open final and lost to wild card Jerome Kym in Basel.
The Turin factor
Jannik Sinner is out of the ATP Finals, so the top nine in the Race qualify. Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev are all through. Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe and Jodar hold the remaining spots, with Jodar in the last one on 3,209 points as of Friday.
Behind him, Alex de Minaur, Djokovic, Fritz and Tommy Paul are all within reach. Djokovic sits 319 points back and will need a final at the very least, if not more. Motivation on this front is worth keeping in mind when you bet. Equally, the top four seeds have nothing left to play for this week, and will have one eye on the upcoming event in Turin.
Dark horses
- Lorenzo Musetti – 34.00 (+3300)
- Karen Khachanov – 51.00 (+5000)
- Matteo Berrettini – 67.00 (+6600)
Musetti finally won a title in Lyon, his first in four years. He beat Fritz in that final and snapped a run of seven straight final losses. He lost early to Arthur Fery in Vienna, but I don’t read too much into that. His first-round match is against Hurkacz, and the winner meets Zverev. If the new No 1 isn’t fully switched on, Musetti can beat him.
Khachanov fits the Paris profile perfectly. He’s a former champion here, and his flat, heavy hitting suits indoor courts. Alcaraz beat him in his Vienna opener, but his Paris draw gives him time to find his feet. He opens against Denis Shapovalov, and Medvedev is a likely third-round opponent.
Berrettini is my long shot. He got past Cobolli in Vienna on his way to the quarter-finals, and that serve does a lot of damage indoors. His body is always a worry – he retired hurt in this year’s Roland-Garros quarter-finals. When he’s healthy, though, he can beat anyone in his section. He starts against Brandon Nakashima, and Alcaraz could be up later in round three.
Best outright bets – Our predictions
- Djokovic to win @ 17.00 (+1600)
- Fritz to win @ 13.00 (+1200)
- Jodar to win @ 17.00 (+1600)
My main outright bet is Djokovic. I know his form isn’t great. He lost his first match in Shanghai and went down to Jan-Lennard Struff in Basel, Struff’s first win over him in nine attempts. But he’s won this title seven times, more than anyone else, and he needs a big week to reach Turin. Betting against a motivated Djokovic is a dangerous game.
His draw is handy too, albeit after a tricky opener. Valentin Vacherot is up first. After that, de Minaur looms in round three and Zverev in the quarters. At 17.00 (+1600), Djokovic is too big a price.
I’m also backing Fritz. He was a finalist in Lyon and is into Basel’s semi-finals at the time of writing, so he’s arriving in form. His quarter has also opened up. Fils is the seed in his section, and he retired against Fritz in Basel with back discomfort. Fils says he’ll play, but I doubt he’ll be close to 100%. That leaves Alcaraz, at a tournament he’s never cracked, as his big obstacle before the semis.
Jodar is my third outright. He made his first Masters 1000 final in Shanghai and has the game for big events. His Basel loss to Vacherot was tough, but his Paris draw is kind. Alejandro Tabilo opens, and Cobolli is his likely third-round opponent. If Cobolli’s Vienna injury lingers, Jodar could reach the quarters without beating a fit seed. Medvedev would likely be next, and that’s a match I think the Spaniard can win.
Value bets to consider
- Zverev to lose before the quarter-finals @ 2.50 (+150)
- Paul to reach the semi-finals @ 7.00 (+600)
- Jodar to reach the quarter-finals @ 3.25 (+225)
I’m happy to bet against the new world No 1 here. Zverev is playing late into this week in Vienna, and his opener is against Musetti or Hurkacz. Stefanos Tsitsipas or Learner Tien could be next in round three. Both of those players would love a scalp like this. I’d take an early exit at 2.50 (+150).
Paul is another dark horse I’d have a small stake on. His quarter is the weakest in this draw, with an out-of-form Shelton at the top. Rune in round one is a tough opener. But Paul ran Alcaraz close in their Vienna quarter-final, losing 6-4, 7-6(2), and he’s hitting the ball well enough to get through. Daniel Merida or Alexander Blockx would follow, then probably Tiafoe. For a player in this kind of form, 7.00 (+600) is too big.
Jodar to make the quarter-finals is a lower-risk way to back the Spaniard. He needs three wins, and the toughest should be Cobolli in round three. With Cobolli’s fitness uncertain, I’ll take 3.25 (+225) all day.
