Part two of the Sunshine Double kicks off this week, with the Miami Open unfolding over the coming 12 days in Florida. There are 96 hopefuls vying for the men’s title, and I’ve spent the last couple of hours digging deep into the Miami draw. Wondering where to watch the Miami Open matches?
Below is my quarter-by-quarter breakdown, including where the seeds fell, which dark horses and early matches to look for, and who I’m predicting will take out the silverware. Read also our draw analysis for the women’s Miami Open.
Men’s 2026 Miami draw: Key takeaways
For those on a tight schedule, here’s the TL;DR of the Miami Open draw in 2026:
- Alcaraz and Fonseca could meet in round two
- One of Musetti, Bublik, De Minaur, Cobolli or Fils will likely make the last four
- Sinner and Zverev are on course for a semi-final repeat
- Medvedev is in the same quarter as Zverev, Shelton and Tien
Men’s Miami draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Have the time to dig a little deeper? Then read on, as I get into all the nitty gritty details below. Also, don’t miss our value bets and tips for the ATP Miami Open.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (1)
- Taylor Fritz (6)
- Casper Ruud (11)
- Karen Khachanov (14)
- Luciano Darderi (17)
- Jiri Lehecka (21)
- Jack Draper (25)
- Sebastian Korda (32)
Dark horses
- Joao Fonseca
- Denis Shapovalov
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Ethan Quinn
Early matches to watch
- Hurkacz vs Ethan Quinn (R1)
- Alcaraz vs Fonseca (R2)
Alcaraz has the toughest quarter by far, with battle after battle lined up for the world No 1 in Miami. His opening match is the headline of the tournament so far: Brazilian star Fonseca. The teen just played the match of his life against Sinner in Indian Wells, recording the best-ever Tennis Insights score by a losing player. This came off the back of consecutive defeats over top-20 opponents (Khachanov and Paul). All this to say, Fonseca is playing brilliantly, and is full of confidence about his ability to go toe-to-toe with the New Two.
I think that match will be a cracker, and while I expect Fonseca to perform, I do for Alcaraz as well. He won’t be sleeping on the Brazilian, and it’s these kinds of atmospheres that the 22-year-old lives for.
Things don’t get any easier for the Spaniard in the third round, however, with Korda (two-time Miami quarter-finalist, current world No 36, 14-6 for the year) his likely opponent. The American has a win over him as well, albeit four years ago now. Survive Korda, and Alcaraz will face down either Darderi or Khachanov potentially, before a quarter-final against one of Ruud, Lehecka, Draper or Fritz – or my dark horse and 2021 champion Hurkacz.
This bottom section of quarter one is fascinating, with some serious congestion going on. Fritz is the high seed, but faces a possible third-round meeting against Draper, who just made the Indian Wells quarters beating Novak Djokovic. Each have tough openers too, against Shapovalov and Opelka potentially.
2022 finalist Ruud has a brutal opening match, against either Hurkacz or Phoenix Challenger winner Ethan Quinn. Lehecka starts against red-hot wildcard Moise Kouame, provided the 17-year-old (who has 17 wins already in 2026 across all levels) wins his opener.
Bottom line, any number of players could make it through to the quarters. Regardless, I’m tipping Alcaraz to get through to the final four. He’s not the type to be intimidated by a tricky draw, and I expect he’ll rise to the challenge.
Quarter-final prediction: Alcaraz to beat Draper.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Lorenzo Musetti (4)
- Alex de Minaur (5)
- Alexander Bublik (10)
- Flavio Cobolli (13)
- Tommy Paul (22)
- Valentin Vacherot (24)
- Arthur Fils (28)
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry (29)
Dark horses
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Grigor Dimitrov
- Matteo Berrettini
Early matches to watch
- Cobolli vs Dimitrov (R2)
- De Minaur vs Tsitsipas (R2)
- Bublik vs Berrettini (R2)
Anything could happen in this quarter. The absence of Djokovic meant there was always going to be one “weak” section of the Miami Open draw, and this is it. There’s no one name that feels like a lock for the semi-finals – instead, I see 6-8 strong candidates.
De Minaur and Musetti are the two high seeds and sit on opposing sides of the quarter. Neither have been further than the round of 16 here, and arrive in some questionable form – De Minaur with two losses in his last three and Musetti having not won since withdrawing injured from the Australian Open.
The Australian’s first test will come early in the form of Tsitsipas, who he’s on track to meet in his opener. Prevail, and it could be Fils in round three, then Bublik in the fourth. For Musetti, he’s got a slightly gentler path with a qualifier up first before Etcheverry as a potential third round and either Paul or Cobolli after that.
Of the two, I would back De Minaur to have the best chance of making a run here. However, I’m tipping the fifth seed to get knocked over by Fils in round three. The Frenchman played excellent tennis to make the last eight in Indian Wells so soon after his return from injury. This time last year, he lost to eventual champion Mensik in the quarter-finals, having beaten Diallo, Tiafoe and Zverev.
It’s a risk, but I’m picking Fils to make another good run and actually win this quarter. I’ve got no confidence in Musetti at the moment, so I think he’ll face one of the other seeds – likely Paul – in the quarters.
Quarter-final prediction: Fils to beat Paul.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Ben Shelton (8)
- Daniil Medvedev (9)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (16)
- Francisco Cerundolo (18)
- Learner Tien (20)
- Brandon Nakashima (28)
- Ugo Humbert (31)
Dark horses
- Marin Cilic
- Gabriel Diallo
- Aleksandar Kovacevic
Early matches to watch
- Cilic vs Alexei Popyin (R1)
- Humbert vs Diallo (R2)
Quarter three is very well balanced, with Zverev, Shelton, Medvedev and even Tien or Cerundolo capable of grabbing this section by the horns.
Shelton comes into Miami off the back of a physically-compromised run in California, where he fell to Tien in the third round. I don’t know what to expect from him physically here, but the draw has given him a decent shot of easing his way into things. Matteo Arnaldi or Alexander Shevchenko await in his opener, then Humbert or Diallo. He’ll need to be up and running by the fourth round, however, as the in-form Medvedev is his probable opponent.
In the lower section of this quarter, it’s Zverev who is the high seed. The German has a comfortable opener, though a challenge awaits in his second match with either Nakashima, Cilic or Popyrin his opponent. He’s well ahead in the head-to-heads against all three though, so should make his way into a round-of-16 clash vs either Tien or Davidovich Fokina.
Tien took a tough loss in the Indian Wells quarters, winning just three games against Sinner. He’s the kind of guy that I expect will come out of this kind of result determined to improve, so I’m tipping him to be Zverev’s opponent. That would make for a fascinating clash, given the American beat him last year and their meeting in Melbourne earlier this year went to a fourth-set breaker.
I’ve got former finalist Zverev getting through, however, and beating either a tired Medvedev or an ill-matched Shelton in the quarters.
Quarter-final prediction: Zverev to beat Shelton.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (2)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (7)
- Jakub Mensik (12)
- Andrey Rublev (15)
- Frances Tiafoe (19)
- Cam Norrie (23)
- Arthur Rinderknech (26)
- Corentin Moutet (30)
Dark horses
- Tomas Machac
- Alex Michelsen
Early matches to watch
- Norrie vs Michelsen (R2)
- Moutet vs Machach (R2)
Rounding out the men’s Miami Open draw is Sinner’s quarter, which he shares with defending champion Mensik as well as No 7 seed Auger-Aliassime and home favorite Tiafoe.
Just as it was in Indian Wells, it’s tough to see anyone challenging Sinner here (read our analysis of the Indian Wells final here). Sure, Mensik beat him just last month, but lightning rarely strikes twice against the Italian. He has a nice ride too, with Moutet or Machac in the third round then Rublev or Norrie in the fourth.
I’m not too confident in Mensik’s ability to force a rematch against Sinner either. The Czech has never had to defend a title of this magnitude, and I reckon the nerves will get to him. He’s got Tiafoe in the third round, who’s been playing some great tennis in 2026. I see the American getting the crowd behind him and upsetting Mensik en route to the quarters, with Auger-Aliassime also failing to hold his seeding.
Tiafoe with nothing to lose and plenty of crowd support – plus some hot weather – could actually push Sinner. I’d love to predict him to pull off the upset here, but the second seed has only lost to two men not named Alcaraz or Djokovic in completed hard court matches since late 2023. I can’t bring myself to add Tiafoe to that list.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Tiafoe.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 men’s Miami Open
- Semi – Alcaraz beats Fils
- Semi – Sinner beats Zverev
- Final – Alcaraz beats Sinner
Shame on me – I’m picking another Alcaraz vs Sinner final, with the world No 1 winning, just like I did for Indian Wells. I swear I’m not just trying to play things safe though. It’s actually what I think will happen.
Yes, a few players have shown in recent months that the New Two are human after all, with Medvedev tipping up Alcaraz last week and Sinner losing to Djokovic and Mensik already this year. But those results are the exception, not the rule. Of the last 22 tournaments where both of these guys have been in the draw, one of them has won 21 times.
Both Zverev and Fils are good players, but there’s very clear, recent evidence that they simply aren’t at the same level as Sinner and Alcaraz.
For meeting No 17 between Sinner and Alcaraz, I still see Alcaraz as having an advantage over Sinner in terms of his variation on court. He’s got more weapons he can draw on, and greater confidence levels considering he’s won 10 of their 16 meetings including their last four on outdoor hardcourts. Of course, it’ll be a tight match, and it’s anyone’s game, but I’m tipping the Spaniard to make amends for last week’s failure in Indian Wells and claim the $1,151,380 in prize money in Miami.
