World no. 7 Lorenzo Musetti takes on the number 16 ranked Frances Tiafoe in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday, June 3rd. Musetti is always a great player to watch and with his current form on clay, Tiafoe is in for his first real test in Paris.
Musetti is clear betting favorite at odds around 1.23 or -450 while a win for Tiafoe pays 4.50 (+350). Let’s look a bit closer at this match-up and our predictions and best value bets for Musetti vs Tiafoe.
In-form Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti, Italy’s best player behind Sinner currently, has a 24-7 record this season, with a dominance on the clay surface. The 23-year-old reached his first French Open quarterfinal, a career milestone, with a great run. To reach this round he defeated Yannick Hanfmann, Daniel Elahi Galan, Mariano Navone and finally Holger Rune, all without any major concerns.
Musetti’s clay season has been great, with a Monte-Carlo final, Madrid semifinal and a Rome semifinal, pushing him to a career-high No. 7 in the ATP rankings. His one-handed backhand, full of variety, tormented Rune, and it’s doubtful if Tiafoe can have more success.
More on Musetti’s current racquet setup.
Tiafoe, with a more modest season, now has yet to drop a set this tournament, a remarkable turnaround. Following straight set wins over Roman Safiullin, Pablo Carreno Busta, Sebastian Korda and Daniel Altmaier, it will be interesting to see his level against a top 10 player.
Head-to-Head
Looking at the ATP tour, Tiafoe holds a 3-2 lead at the moment but with Musetti winning their only clay meeting (Rome two years ago). Their last meeting was at the 2024 Cincinnati Open where Tiafoe won in straight sets.
Odds and Predictions for Musetti vs Tiafoe
Tiafoe comes well rested to this quarterfinal and hasn’t really been tested properly yet this week. This will be a different test but we believe the American can at least put up a proper fight, even on clay. We don’t usually see this form from the American on the European clay swing, his serve and forehand are strong but he will need consistency against Musetti.
We’ll bet on seeing the Italian in the semi’s later this week, looking at recent form and performances, especially on the red dirt, but it might be a tough one.
Our prediction: Musetti to win
Interesting bets:
Game Handicap Tiafoe (+6.5) @ 1.82 (-120)
Total Sets, over 3.5 @ 1.72 (-137.5)
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