The first clay ATP Masters 1000 event of the season is here, with the 56 best male tennis players in the world converging on the picturesque court of Monte-Carlo over the next week. It’s back to the old-school Masters format as well – less seeds, less players, less days, more action. Read on for a look at the latest betting odds, value bets and predictions.
Monte-Carlo Masters odds and favorites
Before we look at the best bets to make on the Monte-Carlo Masters 2026, here’s a breakdown of how tennis bookmakers are viewing the outright market:
2026 Monte-Carlo Masters betting odds
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 1.83 (-120)
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.05 (+105)
- Alexander Zverev @ 15.00 (+1400)
- Lorenzo Musetti @ 41.00 (+4000)
- Casper Ruud @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Jakub Mensik @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Jiri Lehecka @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Joao Fonseca @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 51.00 (+5000)
No surprises here: Alcaraz and Sinner are well, well ahead of the field. The former has his nose in front at 1.83 (-120) while Sinner is marginally behind on 2.05 (+105), before Zverev is back on 15.00 (+1400). There’s an even bigger drop back to the fourth-favorite, with Musetti a long 41.00 (+4000) to win the event. A whole host of names share the fifth spot in outright betting, with Ruud, Mensik, Medvedev, Lehecka, Fonseca and Auger-Aliassime all priced at 51.00 (+5000).
Top dark horses for Monte-Carlo Masters 2026
With two men so short in the title market, there’s ample room to bet on some dark horses this week. These are the names I’ve got my eye on:
- Alejandro Tabilo
- Valentin Vacherot
- Joao Fonseca
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
Alejandro Tabilo @ 201.00 (+20000)
Chile’s Tabilo is a former top-20 player as recently as two years ago. While his level has dipped since then, he’s still a real threat on this surface. Just ask Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka, who both fell victim to the 28-year-old at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters.
Tabilo is 204-130 lifetime on clay across all levels, and 14-4 on the surface this year with two finals in South America. What I like most is his draw – he’s already won one match, which gets him a tired Lehecka next, most likely. Win that, and he’ll face one of Gael Monfils or Alexander Bublik, both of whom are in scratchy form this season.
Yes, Tabilo has a big obstacle of Alcaraz in the quarter-finals, but hey, with three wins under his belt, absolutely nothing to lose, and the confidence of beating Djokovic on these courts last year, stranger things have happened.
Valentin Vacherot @ 81.00 (+8000)
I’m picking Vacherot will either be boom or bust in Monte-Carlo this year. The 27-year-old has had a breakout year, claiming his maiden Masters 1000 title in Shanghai then backing that up with a run to the Paris, Adelaide and Acapulco quarters since.
Playing in front of his home crowd in Monaco, as the highest ranked Monegasque tennis player in history, he’ll either get an additional boost, or crash and burn. Time will tell – but the fact that he gets a rusty Musetti in the second round could well work in his favor.
Joao Fonseca @ 51.00 (+5000)
Fonseca needs little introduction, and it’s debatable whether he can be viewed as a dark horse given bookies have him as fifth favorite for the title. However, he’s unseeded and paying 51.00 (+5000), so I see that as dark horse territory.
The Brazilian is born and bred on clay, so while some of his flashier results have come on hard courts in the last 18 months, this is the surface he should feel the most comfortable. While he didn’t rack up the wins over the Sunshine Double, he did hold his own in two very competitive matches against Sinner and Alcaraz. Not many on the ATP Tour can say that.
Of all the players in the draw, if one was to click into gear and knockout either Sinner or Alcaraz, Fonseca has to be one of the strongest candidates. That’s not to say it’s likely that he will, it’s just to say the potential is there, while it isn’t in most of the rest of the tour.
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 101.00 (+10000)
I ranked Tsitsipas No 7 in my clay power rankings, so I’ve got to give the Greek a shout here. He’s way down the rankings at the moment and doesn’t have much form to speak of – though he has beaten Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Medvedev this year.
However, even when Tsitsipas has been playing poorly, he’s got things together for Monte-Carlo. This is by far and above his most successful tournament, winning here in 2021, 2022 and 2024.
Given the flashes he’s shown this season and his track record here, at 101.00 (+10000) he’s surely worth a cheeky tenner.
Betting tips and value bets for Monte-Carlo Masters 2026:
Don’t fancy tipping one of these dark horses outright? No worries, here are a few other markets that offer great value in Monte-Carlo:
- Tournament to be won without dropping a set @ 3.00 (+2200)
I’m predicting Alcaraz to roll through the draw in Monte-Carlo. His path likely looks like Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Tabilo, De Minaur, Sinner. Those first four matches are absolute layups for a rested, focused Alcaraz on clay.
Sinner is a different kettle of fish, however, only one man has ever won Miami and Monte-Carlo back-to-back (a guy from Serbia, you might have heard of him). If Sinner does make the Monte-Carlo final – which I think he has a good shot of doing – I expect the Italian to be pretty drained. Alcaraz beat him in straight sets in the Rome final last year, and I’m tipping him to do the same again here.
But if I’m wrong, and Sinner continues his crazy form (he’s won 17 Masters matches in straight sets), then this bet pays too.
- Zverev vs Medvedev quarter-final @ 3.50 (+250)
Bookmakers have a great price listed for the top two seeds in quarter three to meet in the last eight. This is the most likely scenario in my mind – Zverev is a very strong, consistent clay courter who has made the semi-finals of the last two Masters events, while Medvedev is in red-hot form with 19 wins already this season and a surprisingly strong record in Monte-Carlo (two quarter-final-or-better runs).
The likes of Andrey Rublev, Matteo Berrettini, Fonseca and Karen Khachanov are all floating around in this quarter too which is what drives this price up. However, on the balance of probability, I have these two meeting in the quarters, and I like this price of 3.50 (+250) for it.
- Quarter two winner – Alex de Minaur @ 4.50 (+350)
Quarter two is very wide open, with De Minaur and Musetti topping the seeds, alongside Luciano Darderi and Flavio Cobolli. The latter two aren’t consistent performers at this level yet, while Musetti hasn’t won a match since Melbourne courtesy of an injury suffered in his match against Djokovic.
De Minaur has been good on clay the last two years, with 10-5 records in both 2024 and 2025. He’s gone deep in Monte-Carlo both those years too, making the quarters or better each time.
Given his competition is pretty hampered and De Minaur himself is a good punt, I’m more than happy with 4.50 for the Aussie to make the semi-finals.
