Mexico has its moment in the spotlight this week, with the Acapulco ATP 500 event beginning on Monday. But that’s not all that’s drawing attention to Mexico today, as the country is currently in upheaval after cartel boss El Mencho was killed over the weekend.
What impact will this have on the tennis? Is the tournament still going ahead? If so, who’s the best bet to win? Read on as I breakdown the odds, best bets and my predictions ahead of this event.
Mexican Open odds and favorites
As of writing, tournament organizers are adamant the Mexican Open is still going ahead, despite the governments of most developed nations issuing shelter-in-place warnings. That said, here’s who betting sites favor to win the event.
Men’s 2026 Acapulco ATP betting odds
- Alexander Zverev @ 3.20 (+220)
- Alex de Minaur @ 3.50 (+250)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 9.00 (+800)
- Casper Ruud @ 12.00 (+1100)
- Flavio Cobolli @ 13.00 (+1200)
Top seed Zverev holds a narrow lead in the outright betting odds, sitting on 3.20 (+220). Two-time defending champion De Minaur is right behind him, however, priced at 3.50 (+250).
Behind these two, odds lengthen significantly, with Davidovich Fokina (9.00, +800) the next shortest. Ruud (12.00, +1100) and Cobolli (13.00, +1200) round out the top five favorites, with odds ballooning even higher for the remainder of the field.
You can bet on the tournament at our recommended sportsbooks below:
Top dark horses for ATP Acapulco 2026
Given tennis bookies largely view this event as a two-horse race, plus the amount of volatility around the Mexican Open this year, it’s a great time to get involved with a dark horse bet. Here are the players I’m keeping an eye on in 2026:
- Rafael Jodar
- Eliot Spizzirri
- Sebastian Korda
- Coleman Wong
Eliot Spizzirri @ 26.00 (+2500)
Spizzirri rocketed into the tennis mainstream when he pushed Jannik Sinner to the brink of defeat midway through the Australian Open last month. The young American went toe-to-toe with the defending champ from the baseline and came out on top for large swaths of that clash.
What was most impressive was Spizzirri’s ability to play lights-out tennis in the searing Melbourne heat. I expect that talent will come in handy in Acapulco, with temperatures forecast to sit around 30 degrees Celsius all week.
Spizzirri has a favorable section of the draw too, with Ruud and Cobolli in his quarter. Ruud I expect to withdraw shortly, given the security concerns in Mexico and the Norwegian’s new status as a dad. Cobolli I think will be a little fatigued, after making his first decent run at a tournament in months last week. That gives Spizzirri a nice launching pad to make a push deep.
Sebastian Korda @ 34.00 (+3400)
Can Korda even be considered a dark horse? On pure betting odds he certainly is, but the man arrives in Acapulco having just dismantled Alex Michelsen, Ruud, Cobolli and Tommy Paul to win the Delray Beach Open title. This run came off the back of a Challenger final in San Diego and quarter-final run in Dallas, which has him at 11-2 since late January.
It’s hard to see Korda slowing down, unless injury strikes. The American is playing brilliant tennis and is a great bet to keep his momentum rolling in Mexico.
Rafael Jodar @ 101.00 (+10000)
Speaking of momentum, Jodar is a player that has it in spades over the past six months. The Spanish teenager went 15-2 at the Challenger level between the mid-October and the start of this season, bagging two titles and making another final. He then qualified for the Australian Open and won his first round match, before qualifying for Dallas and winning his opening match in Delray Beach last week.
Yes, he’s young, inexperienced and winning the title here would be a major heist. But that’s how breakouts work, and Jodar certainly had plenty of talent, so it wouldn’t be the most unprecedented result.
Coleman Wong @ odds TBC
Now we’re getting into real dark horse territory – Wong hasn’t even qualified for the Mexican Open yet, so bookies haven’t priced him up. The Hong Kong native is in career-best form at the moment though, and could well ride that wave to a great result in Acapulco.
In Delray Beach last week, Wong qualified and made it all the way to his second ATP-level quarter-final. On the way, he took out some reputable names in Yoshihito Nishioka, Nuno Borges and Brandon Nakashima.
He’s backed that up by winning his opening qualifier in Acapulco. Should he get through his final qualifying match – against top seed Patrick Kypson – he’ll enter the main draw with nothing to lose and all the momentum in the world.
Betting tips and value bets for Mexican Open 2026:
If you don’t have the risk palate for an outright bet on one of the above dark horse, then here are some slightly more conservative value bets to consider this week:
- De Minaur to win @ 3.50 (+250)
De Minaur has been excellent in Acapulco and currently rides a 10-match winning streak here, having won the title in 2024 and 2025. He arrives in top-notch form as well, off the back of winning the ATP 500 in Rotterdam earlier this month. Those who saw him at the Australian Open will remember he was looking like a genuine title contender this year, until he ran into Carlos Alcaraz.
There’s no Alcaraz in Acapulco, and I’m finding it hard to imagine anyone here getting in the way of De Minaur bagging a third trophy here. He loves the heat, plays great on these courts, and typically doesn’t let these kinds of opportunities pass him by.
Zverev is his biggest competition, but I’m quietly expecting the German to be upset earlier in the event – more on that soon.
- Unseeded finalist @ 1.72 (-139)
Given the situation in Mexico, this is a strong bet to take. We could well see higher profile players withdraw like crazy over the next 24 hours, leaving a seriously underpowered field that’s ripe for an unseeded player to make a deep run.
There are some excellent candidates – Korda, Spizzirri, Jodar – whose merits I’ve already expounded, not to mention the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Gael Monfils, Brandon Nakashima and Nuno Borges.
- Quarter one winner – Jodar @ 19.00 (+1800)
This is my bet of the week, and here’s why. I’ve explained the case for Jodar above, but what I didn’t mention is how I expect his draw to open up through to the quarter-finals.
He’s scheduled to play Cam Norrie first round. Expect the Brit to pull out – he’ll be under advice to do so from the UK government, whose consulate will be speaking to his team about the security situation. Elsewhere in his quarter, I’m tipping Zverev to be upset by either Corentin Moutet or Miomir Kecmanovic.
That leaves Jodar with a very doable path to winning his quarter. Not a guarantee by any means, but combined with the great tennis he’s been playing, I like his odds of 19.00 (+1800) to win the top quarter.
