The final grand slam event of the year is upon us as the US Open offers the typical blend of spectacular tennis and showtime only America can produce. Fireworks are expected so keep reading to find out some value bets for the upcoming edition of the US Open.
ATP US Open Odds and Favorites
As with every year at the US Open, a total of 128 players will compete in New York but only one can lift the trophy. Will it be Jannik Sinner again or will somebody finally dethrone him? Let’s see what the bookmakers think.
Men’s 2025 US Open Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 2.15 (+114)
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 2.80 (+179)
- Novak Djokovic @ 13.00 (+1200)
- Jack Draper @ 19.00 (+1800)
- Alexander Zverev @ 21.00 (+2000)
- Ben Shelton @ 21.00 (+2000)
- Taylor Fritz @ 29.00 (+2800)
- Daniil Medvedev @ 51.00 (+5000)
- Holger Rune @ 67.00 (+6600)
- Alex de Minaur @ 67.00 (+6600)
As expected, there are two clear favorites to win the US Open. Alcaraz and Sinner have split the previous seven Grand Slams between them, and bookies expect the same thing to happen again.
Sinner is a slight favorite ahead of Alcaraz due to recency bias and how well he played against him, but the Spaniard has a pretty good chance as well. After that, we have Djokovic in a tier of his own with the third-best odds.
Below Djokovic, there is a group of players in Draper, Zverev, Shelton and Fritz who are essentially given about an equal chance to win the event. Finally, there is a group of underdog contenders such as Medvedev, Rune, and De Minaur.
Top Dark Horses for ATP US Open 2025
If you’re wondering whether there are some value bets outside of the favourites you’d be correct. There are indeed some great value bets to be made among the dark horses but before that let’s go over who they are.
- Frances Tiafoe
- Casper Ruud
- Jakub Mensik
- Jiri Lehecka
- Karen Khachanov
Frances Tiafoe @ 101.00 (+10000)
For as long as Tiafoe plays at the US Open, he’s one player to keep an eye on. A player who has the skill to go deep into the event, which he’s done a few times. He was a few points away from the final a few years ago.
With him, it comes down to how motivated he is, how much fan support he’s getting, and how serious he is. In New York, all of that is perfect for him. He’s beloved by the crowd, he’s heavily motivated, and he takes it seriously, playing in the stadium named after his idol, Arthur Ashe. What more can you ask for?
Casper Ruud @ 126.00 (+12500)
Ruud might be an odd choice, but we’re talking about a player who can play well on hard courts, has made the US Open final before, and has been very good for a very long time.
Sure, there are much better players on hard courts than him, but in tennis you have to prove you’re capable of doing something before people actually start to believe that you can do it, and Ruud has proven it. With a bit of luck, anything can happen.
Jakub Mensik @ 101.00 (+10000)
Mensik has future Grand Slam winner written all over him because he’s a very rare combination of tremendous potential and proof that it’s not just speculative. Winning the Miami Masters this year was utterly impressive, and he could technically do something similar in New York. The serve is as powerful as ever, he has the needed aggression, and the poise to get it done, even against the big guys. That’s all you really need.
Jiri Lehecka @ 126.00 (+12500)
Lehecka is another undervalued player simply because he’s struggled with injuries and consistency. When he’s played, he’s been consistently good, and what makes him so dangerous is his aggressive style. If the serve clicks and the forehand and backhand align, he’s going to be very hard to beat, and at this value, he’s certainly worth a shot if you’re looking for more outrageous scenarios.
Karen Khachanov @ 351.00 (+35000)
Khachanov is again a player who has proven on the big stage to be capable of great things. He’s had a major run at the Olympics in the past, he’s won a Masters event, and he’s recently been playing very solid tennis, highlighted by the run in Canada. He’s also made some deep runs in New York, so again, if everything clicks for him, he could go far. As a player who’s never won a major, the motivation will be there as well.
Betting Tips and Value Bets for the ATP US Open 2025
Now that we know who the top dogs are and who the underdogs are, it’s time for some predictions with good odds. Here are some of our value bets.
- Novak Djokovic to lose against Learner Tien @ 7.00 (+600)
Djokovic is facing an early challenge in New York. In the first round, he takes on an up-and-coming star, Tien, who has proven to be capable of playing against the best. He’s got massive experience on American hard courts and will have the entirety of Ashe cheering for him too. With Djokovic’s form being rather questionable and a lack of matches lately, it’s not impossible that Tien finds a way to pull this off. He’s got the tools, and the odds are too good to pass up.
- Medvedev to lose against Benjamin Bonzi @ 4.00 (+300)
While you might think that Bonzi would massively struggle against Medvedev due to his playstyle, it’s not really true. We saw at Wimbledon earlier this year how Bonzi can play very well against Medvedev, as he bested him 3–1 in the opening round.
With the Russian’s struggles seemingly not over yet based on recent performances, and them facing each other in the first round again, why not test if history does in fact repeat itself? The odds are certainly juicy, and we have that Wimbledon matchup where Bonzi won relatively comfortably.
- Alexander Muller to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.30 (+129)
Tsitsipas losing in the first round of this year’s US Open might be the least shocking thing ever. He’s facing a solid player who has had a career year and who has the tools to beat him. Muller has a good serve, he can play aggressively, and most importantly, he’ll know to target that backhand.
With Tsitsipas losing six of the last seven matches he’s played, this is a really good value bet, considering you’re getting plus money on a player who should actually be the favorite.
- Botic van de Zandschulp to beat Holger Rune @ 4.00 (+300)
Some of the best tennis Van de Zandschulp ever played was in New York. He made his deepest Grand Slam run here a few years ago and beat Alcaraz last year. With his performance in Winston-Salem this week looking strong, the Dutch player could take down Rune, who continues to be impressively unimpressive.
The Danish star is a fantastic player but struggles to win consistently. It’s a coin-flip match, and with the odds on Botic great, there is massive value in backing him to do what he’s done a few times already.
- Jaume Munar to Beat Jack Draper in Round Two (Odds TBC)
Draper is the far better player than Munar, but the Spaniard loves to keep the rallies going, which is a massive trap for Draper. He’s by far the weakest player physically in the top 10 and has struggled with fitness in the past. With the weather expected to be hot and humid in New York, and this match having 4–5 hours written all over it, there is value in backing Munar to stun last year’s semi-finalist. The odds will be great, and if anything, Munar has been really strong on hard courts this year.
