The 2025 US Open draw is out, and we’ve spent hours pouring over it. Below we have all you need to know about how the big names have been divided up, with a quarter-by-quarter analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws in New York. From upsets, to early match ups to watch and our final weekend predictions, read on for our full breakdown.
Men’s US Open draw
Quarter one
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Jack Draper (5)
- Lorenzo Musetti (10)
- Tommy Paul (14)
- Alexander Bublik (23)
- Flavio Cobolli (24)
- Denis Shapovalov (27)
- Gabriel Diallo (31)
Matches to watch
- Bublik vs Marin Cilic (R1)
- Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (R1)
- Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin (R2)
Defending champion, world No 1 Sinner headlines the top quarter in New York. Given his credentials – two Grand Slam titles already in 2025 – the Italian makes any quarter look like a good draw. That’s the case here, where the first real challenge he faces will be in the quarter-finals, with last year’s semi-finalist Draper a possible opponent.
A potential second-round banana skin does await Sinner in the form of Alexei Popyrin, who knocked out Novak Djokovic in 2024. The Australian isn’t seeing the ball the way he was this time last year – when he won the Canada Masters – but he has still picked up wins over Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune in the past month.
Bublik or Paul are potential round-of-16 opponents for Sinner, neither of which are too threatening either. Sinner has won the last four in a row against Paul. While Bublik did defeat him in Halle, the Kazakh comes to the US Open having not played any hard court warm ups and faces a challenging first three matches if he’s even to make the last 16.
In the lower half of this quarter, Musetti will look to turnaround a quiet second half of the season but faces a tough opening match against Mpetshi Perricard. Should the Italian survive the big-serving Frenchman, he’ll then need to see off wily veteran David Goffin and compatriot Cobolli most likely if he’s to set a fourth-round blockbuster against Draper.
The Brit has a reasonably comfortable path through the first week, beginning against a qualifier before likely facing Zizou Bergs. In the third round, he may need to also negate a big server, with 31st seed Diallo looming. Expect him to do so, then find Sinner a bridge too far in the quarters.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Draper.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Alex de Minaur (8)
- Karen Khachanov (9)
- Andrey Rublev (15)
- Francisco Cerundolo (19)
- Ugo Humbert (22)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (25)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (26)
Matches to watch
- Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Muller (R1)
- Gael Monfils vs Roman Safiullin (R1)
Quarter two has a host of seeds who will fancy their shot at a deep run. World No 3 Zverev tops the section, but is far from a sure bet having not made the final four here since 2021. De Minaur, Khachanov and Rublev will all fancy their chances of getting through this quarter.
Zverev should navigate his first three rounds untroubled, despite the likes of Monfils or Auger-Aliassime as potential third-round opponents. In the round of 16, however, the German is on a collision course with the in-form Rublev.
Much has been made of the decline of Rublev’s generation, but the Russian himself is quietly getting back into contention, going 6-2 across the recent Canada-Cincinnati swing. His two losses were to Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz where he acquitted himself well, taking a set from the former and pushing the latter to a breaker.
We’re picking Rublev to get up in this section and take on De Minaur in the quarters. The Australian has Tsitsipas seeded for the third round, but given the Greek’s form, will likely face Muller or Hamad Medjedovic instead. His real test will come in the round of 16 against Khachanov. The recently readmitted top-10 member has been playing a lot the past month, so we’re tipping De Minaur to get through.
Taking on De Minaur in the quarter-finals presents the perfect opportunity for Rublev to snap his Grand Slam last eight hoodoo (he’s made this stage 10 times, but never further). We say his run extends, however, with De Minaur making his maiden major semi instead.
Quarter-final prediction: De Minaur to beat Rublev.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Taylor Fritz (4)
- Novak Djokovic (7)
- Holger Rune (11)
- Jakub Mensik (16)
- Frances Tiafoe (17)
- Tomas Machac (21)
- Alex Michelsen (28)
- Brandon Nakashima (30)
Matches to watch
- Djokovic vs Learner Tien (R1)
- Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry (R1)
- Joao Fonseca vs Miomir Kecmanovic (R1)
Having not played since Wimbledon, Djokovic receives perhaps the kindest draw possible to ease himself back into match play. Fritz – a man he holds a 10-0 head-to-head against – is the top seed in his quarter, with no other top-10 players present.
There are a host of dangerous low or unseeded players in the third quarter, however. No 17 seed Tiafoe has gone semis-quarters-semis the last three years in New York; Sebastian Korda is capable of playing top-10 tennis periodically; Fonseca, Rune and Mensik are all young talents with the potential to run hot.
Based on the body of work we’ve seen so far in 2025, it’s hard not to see Djokovic and Fritz making their way through either end of this quarter for a last eight meeting. The Serb will have an early challenge in the spritely Tien, and will need to have found his range by the time he takes on either Tiafoe or Rune in the round of 16.
Fritz take on a pair of his compatriots, most likely, with Emilio Nava in the opening round and Nakashima in the third. His fourth-round match is anyone’s guess, with Mensik just as likely to lose first round as he is to make the second week, Machac a walking retirement and Fonseca still an inconsistent quantity.
Bottom line, expect some surprise runs here, but ultimately Djokovic to pick up win 11 against Fritz for his fourth Grand Slam semi of the year.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic to beat Fritz.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (2)
- Ben Shelton (6)
- Casper Ruud (12)
- Daniil Medvedev (13)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18)
- Jiri Lehecka (20)
- Tallon Griekspoor (29)
- Luciano Darderi (32)
Matches to watch
- Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi (R1)
- Alcaraz vs Reilly Opelka (R1)
Rounding out the men’s US Open draw is Alcaraz’s quarter, where the second seed finds himself alongside the likes of Shelton, Ruud and Medvedev. The Spaniard will be pleased with his draw as he largely avoids any threats until deep into the second week.
As with the third quarter, this feels like a section where Alcaraz and Shelton will progress towards each other while mayhem unfolds elsewhere. Both Ruud and Medvedev are prime candidates for an early upset, but could equally play themselves into title contention by the fourth round. The remainder of the seeds are unreliable, and while a few unseeded dark horses lurk – Corentin Moutet, Marcos Giron, Arthur Rinderknech – none stand out as particularly realistic candidates to make the quarters.
Shelton’s first challenge shouldn’t occur until the fourth round, where he’s expected to take on either Ruud or Lehecka. The pressure of Shelton being a genuine title hope could come to bear in this clash, though from what we’ve seen of the American so far, he only rises to the occasion.
For Alcaraz, he’ll need to be sharp against big-serving home-hope Opelka in his opener, and again against Jerry Shang in round two. If Medvedev hits some form their round-of-16 clash will be a must-watch, but that’s a big ‘if’ at this stage.
Picking against the New Two of Sinner and Alcaraz is rarely a wise move, but in this spot, there’s a temptation to pick Shelton over Alcaraz in the quarters. The world No 6 is playing the best tennis of his life, and in front of a home crowd, could well have his coming-of-age moment.
Quarter-final prediction: Shelton to beat Alcaraz.
Final weekend predictions for men’s US Open
- Semi – Sinner beats De Minaur
- Semi – Djokovic beats Shelton
- Final – Sinner beats Djokovic
For our final weekend picks, all three of these match ups feel quite clear cut. Sinner owns a 10-0 head-to-head over De Minaur, while Djokovic had no issue seeing off Shelton at this very stage two years ago. Yes, the American has improved drastically since then, but only two players seem capable of beating Djokovic at slams in 2025, and they aren’t named Shelton.
In the final, as much as Djokovic claiming his 25th major would be a fairy tale, it’s hard to see him finding a way past Sinner. The Serbian’s best shot at one more big title likely lies in Melbourne or London, if Sinner – who has beaten him five times in a row now – doesn’t cross his path.
Back the Italian to solidify his position as the best player of the world, claiming his third Grand Slam of the season.
Women’s US Open draw
Quarter one
Seeds
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Jasmine Paolini (7)
- Elena Rybakina (9)
- Clara Tauson (14)
- Elise Mertens (19)
- Veronika Kudermetova (24)
- Leylah Fernandez (31)
- McCartney Kessler (32)
Matches to watch
- Tauson vs Alexandra Eala (R1)
- Emma Raducanu vs Kudermetova (R2)
- Kessler vs Marketa Vondrousova (R2)
Sitting atop the women’s US Open draw is world No 1 Sabalenka, with the Belarusian hoping New York will be fourth-time lucky for her in 2025. She has a tough quarter though, with the hard-hitting Rybakina and an in-form Paolini drawn alongside her in the top section.
Sabalenka has a reasonably comfortable first week, opening against Rebeka Masarova before Polina Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez and Clara Tauson likely lie between her and the quarter-finals.
There, chances are she’ll face one of Rybakina or Paolini. The former is seeded to meet either Raducanu or Kudermetova in the third round, while the latter needs to get past home star Kessler if she’s to make the last 16.
Paolini has consistently found a way to make it deep in majors the past few years, while Rybakina often disappoints amid expectation. Therefore, we’re tipping Sabalenka to take on Paolini in the quarters, and move through to the final four untroubled.
Quarter-final prediction: Sabalenka to beat Paolini.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Jessica Pegula (4)
- Mirra Andreeva (5)
- Emma Navarro (10)
- Belinda Bencic (16)
- Liudmila Samsonova (17)
- Victoria Mboko (22)
- Jelena Ostapenko (25)
- Dayana Yastremska (30)
Matches to watch
- Mboko vs Barbora Krejcikova (R1)
Quarter two is a juicy one that will take a few rounds to get going. Pegula, Andreeva, Navarro and even Mboko will fancy their chances of getting through this section, with no clear contender to make the semi-finals.
Pegula is the quarter’s highest seed, but has been patchy on hard courts this swing. She’ll be tested in the third and fourth rounds where she’ll likely face Yastremska then Samsonova or Bencic. Survive, and either Navarro, Mboko or Andreeva could well be waiting in the quarters.
Mboko faces an intriguing opener against 2024 Wimbledon champion Krejcikova. This will be an excellent test of the teenager’s health and ability to withstand her new fame, which will set her up well for a third round clash against Navarro potentially.
The Canadian is the only title contender in this section with a shred of form, but tipping her to back up the Canada run so quickly feels a little rash. Instead, expect both Pegula and Andreeva to find their best tennis, with the latter advancing to her maiden US Open semi.
Quarter-final prediction: Andreeva to beat Pegula
Quarter three
Seeds
- Coco Gauff (3)
- Madison Keys (6)
- Karolina Muchova (11)
- Daria Kasatkina (15)
- Linda Noskova (21)
- Naomi Osaka (23)
- Marta Kostyuk (27)
- Magdalena Frech (28)
Matches to watch
- Venus Williams vs Muchova (R1)
- Kostyuk vs Katie Boulter (R1)
- Keys vs Petra Kvitova (R2)
The third quarter of the women’s draw is ripe with options to go deep. 2023 champion Gauff tops this section, with Australian Open winner Keys her biggest challenger. The likes of Osaka and Muchova are genuine contenders as well.
Keys’ first challenge comes early as the retiring Kvitova is a potential second-round opponent. It’s been awhile since the two-time Grand Slam champ made a splash on Tour, but what better time to do so than now. Speaking of old hands, Williams will be looking to disrupt the party at the ripe old age of 45. She takes on back-to-back semi-finalist Muchova in the first round.
Gauff also has a tricky match early, with Donna Vekic likely waiting in the second round. Either Peyton Stearns or Frech are her third-round opponents, before possibly running into Osaka in the round of 16.
That match, plus Muchova vs Keys in the upper half of this quarter, will be the deciding matches. Expect Gauff and Muchova to advance, with the former moving through to the semi-finals.
Quarter-final prediction: Gauff to beat Muchova.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Amanda Anisimova (8)
- Elina Svitolina (12)
- Ekaterina Alexandrova (13)
- Beatriz Haddad Maia (18)
- Dian Shnaider (20)
- Sofia Kenin (26)
- Anna Kalinskaya (29)
Matches to watch
- Kenin vs Danielle Collins (R2)
- Maria Sakkari vs Svitolina (R2)
Title favorite Swiatek is well-placed to continue her sharp run of form and go deep at the 2025 US Open. The Pole sits in quarter four along with Anisimova and Svitolina, as well as the mercurial Anisimova, Shnaider and Kenin.
Swiatek will likely need to beat Shnaider in the round of 16, after three comfortable match ups against Emiliana Arango, Yulia Putintseva and Anna Kalinskaya in the first week. Waiting for her in the quarter-finals, we expect Svitolina to survive a vicious top section where Anisimova and Kenin meet in the third round.
Regardless of who books their place against Swiatek, we don’t see the Pole falling in the quarter-finals, given her brilliant resurgence since July this year. Back her to ease into the semis unscathed.
Quarter-final prediction: Swiatek to beat Svitolina.
Final weekend predictions for women’s US Open
- Semi – Sabalenka beats Andreeva
- Semi – Swiatek beats Gauff
- Final – Swiatek beats Sabalenka
Sabalenka will be heartbroken to come up short in a fourth-consecutive Grand Slam after performing so well in 2025, but that’s the outcome we’re predicting. The Belarusian has been such a consistent force in majors that it’s hard to see her losing early.
Equally, the way Swiatek is playing, anything but the title for her would be a surprise. Expect both semi-finals to be tight, competitive affairs, as will the final be, with Swiatek ultimately coming out on top.
More resources:
