Top seed against defending champion – ATP Toronto
We’re now getting into the quarterfinals in the Canadian Open in Toronto, and on Sunday, August 4th, top seed Alexander Zverev faces defending champion Alexei Popyrin on Centre Court. Can we get a surprise here? Let’s look at their form, head-to-head and finally our predictions and best value bets for Zverev vs Popyrin.
Alexander Zverev (World No. 3) is in good form, reaching his 500th career win (the first man born in 1990 or later to record 500 tour-level wins) in Toronto’s third round against Matteo Arnaldi (6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2) and advancing when Francisco Cerundolo retired trailing 6-4, 1-0. With a 37-14 record in 2025, including a Munich title, Zverev’s 14-4 hard-court mark and 70.8% first-serve percentage make him a tough opponent for anyone on tour. More on Zverev’s racquet.
Alexei Popyrin (World No. 26) is thriving as the defending champion, extending his Canada win streak to nine matches. He defeated Daniil Medvedev 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 and no 5 seed Holger Rune 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, saving nine of 11 break points against Medvedev. The Australian has a really high top level but not at all as consistent as his opponent. Read more about Popyrin and his current racquet.
Head-to-Head
Zverev leads 3-0, including a 7-5, 6-3 win at the 2024 Paris Olympics on clay, their most recent clash. Their other meetings were in 2018 Basel (6-4, 6-4) and 2019 Acapulco (6-3, 6-3), both on hard courts, favoring Zverev’s consistency over Popyrin’s power.
Betting Odds and Predictions
- Moneyline: Zverev -350 (1.30) | Popyrin +270 (3.70)
- Game Spread: Zverev -3.5 (-118/1.85) | Popyrin +3.5 (-112/1.89)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-132/1.76) | Under 22.5 (+100/2.00)
Prediction and Best Bets
Zverev’s experience, head-to-head dominance and 77% hard-court win rate make him the favorite among bookmakers, as expected. The odds difference is a bit too much though in our opinion as Zverev is not exactly in the form of his life this season. Popyrin will make parts of the game tough with his aggressive first-serve in these conditions in Canada which he loves.
Our Bet: Popyrin to cover the hcp +3.5 games at odds 1.85 or -118 in what we think will be a competitive clash.
