World No 1 Jannik Sinner has played 29 matches so far this season. Of those, he has won 26. Given that Sinner is widely considered the strongest hard court player in the world, and we are entering three straight months on the surface, can anyone challenge the Italian?
Sinner posted a 42-3 record on hard courts last year losing only to Carlos Alcaraz twice and Andrey Rublev once. Two of those losses to Alcaraz were notably on slow hard courts too, which are the minority overall.
However, it’s unlikely that Sinner will remain unbeaten for the remainder of the year. So if he does slip up, who could that be against?
Five potential challengers to Sinner’s hard court dominance
After carefully going over Sinner’s past encounters on hard courts and certain matchups we came up with a list of players who are most likely to give him some trouble.
- Carlos Alcaraz
Any kind of list of players that could beat Sinner in any capacity has to start with Alcaraz, the only player who has reliably beaten Sinner most of the time he played him in the past 18 months. The pair faced each other three times in 2024 and Alcaraz won all of those, two of which were on hard courts.
When we look at Sinner’s hard court performances since November 2023, he’s 62-3 in the last 65 matches he played on the surface. That’s a ridiculous record translating to a 95% win rate. To put that into perspective it’s essentially almost if not better than what peak Rafael Nadal had on clay.
Out of the three losses he had, two were against Alcaraz. Both were on slow hard courts which is a crucial part of the equation. The speed of Alcaraz allows him to sit back a bit more on slower hard courts where his movement and court coverage can create margins which trouble Sinner.
On a faster one Sinner just takes over because the sheer power that he has makes it very hard to counter him. His serve is also more impressive and more consistent than that of Alcaraz, especially the second serve creating even more of a favorable matchup on faster courts.
Sinner holds his serve 91% of the time compared to Alcaraz who does so 86% of the time. He also wins 77% of points behind his first serve compared to 73% for Alcaraz. Those margins matter a lot in close matches they tend to play.
When it comes to how likely it is, it’s not as likely as it might seem because Sinner has largely been able to adapt to the style of Alcaraz. The brilliance and pitfall of Alcaraz is that he’s his own worst enemy. At his best he’s impossible to beat but so often he will complicate things for himself and that’s where the laser-sharp approach of Sinner creates problems.
In the three matches from this year Alcaraz won twice but two of those were on clay courts where Alcaraz has a 39-5 record in the past two years. On the faster court (Wimbledon) Sinner won and he’s likely to do so again.
So while the most likely player to beat Sinner is Alcaraz, he’s still pretty unlikely to do so. The matchup has been slowly shifting in favor of Sinner especially on faster courts which will be the majority of courts on which they might play in the upcoming months. Read more about Alcaraz racquet.
- Andrey Rublev
Believe it or not, Andrey Rublev is the second most likely to unseat Sinner in our opinion. When you look at their head-to-head – which favors Sinner 7-3 – you might be puzzled as to why, but winning three matches against Sinner is actually pretty impressive considering how well he’s been playing.
It’s a better record than Novak Djokovic has as the Serbian failed to beat Sinner in the last two years since his ascension to the top while Rublev has. What makes Rublev so tough to play on hard courts is his super aggressive approach. When he’s on fire Rublev is a player who is hitting his first serve consistently and if you do get it into play he’ll obliterate a winner with his forehand.
It’s a style that’s very hard to counter when it’s working superbly and every now and then it happens. It’s also tailor made for hard courts which is where Rublev plays his best tennis. He’s been particularly tough in this upcoming part of the season due to the speed of courts which elevate his game.
Rublev bested Sinner in Canada last year for example and he also pushed him to three sets in Cincinnati a few weeks later. So, he can play against him. Whether he beats him comes down to several factors most notably if he’s playing his best that day. He hasn’t had the best season suffering a dip but his underlying stats have still been relatively similar to last year.
A drop is observed in his tiebreak winning percentage which could be a bit of bad luck. Overall he’s played on a similar level as last year and that’s a good enough level to possibly beat Sinner.
Rublev is currently not in the top 10 among favorites to win the US Open, a bet on him gives you around 67.00 (+6600) in betting odds.
- Novak Djokovic
Despite the legend massively struggling against Sinner in the past two years losing to him five times in a row, the Serbian still has the chops to beat him. When you look at the state of tennis right now there doesn’t seem to be another player who is likely to beat him after these two than Djokovic.
The rest of the field has been largely unimpressive and not in good form. Djokovic can find that form, especially on a court like New York where he’s been a menace in the past. Still we have to note that there has been a drop in his performance. It’s not just the eye test because the stats back it up.
Djokovic is hitting his first serve less this year compared to last year (67% to 64%) which is a problem because it is a massive weapon that often wins him tight matches. It’s no wonder that he’s won only 43% of the tiebreaks he’s played this year compared to 56% last year, 79% in 2023 and 2022.
When it comes to the matchup it heavily favors Sinner as the more aggressive and consistent baseline hitter. However, experience can’t be discounted and Djokovic might prove the Joker once more by pulling an ace out of his sleeve.
- Jack Draper
While Jack Draper has an injury right now and we don’t know when he’ll be back, the Brit has some weapons to rely upon to possibly challenge Sinner. This is primarily his serve which is a massive asset that at times can be troublesome for Sinner – the Italian has a minor track record struggling against players with a good serve.
The reason is simple. As a baseliner Sinner needs rallies and points to find his rhythm. The less he plays the tougher it is to find that rhythm that he needs. Draper has made a massive step forward this year proving to be one of the best players in the world.
Not only does he have a massive serve but also a really solid baseline game that complements that well. He’s versatile enough that he can play well on fast courts highlighted by his run at the US Open last year. He can also play well on slower hard courts as he showed by winning the Indian Wells Masters this year.
That makes him a solid candidate for an upset. He holds 85% of his service games and has a 72% win rate in tiebreaks which are crucial stats in a potential matchup against Sinner. More on Draper’s racquet.
- Taylor Fritz
We’re picking the American here largely because of the home crowd factor. He’s going to be at home in the upcoming weeks and he’s shown last year that he can play with Sinner. He nearly won a set against him at the US Open and generally wasn’t battered in most matches they played. In fact Sinner won only one set by more than a two-game margin.
In the five matches they have played, Sinner won sets against him 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4. Now you might be thinking what does that matter, but bear with us. This still shows that Fritz can hang with him.
What this clash comes down to is the serve and very aggressive baseline game that is hard to counter. On faster hard courts you have to out-hit Sinner if you are hoping to win, there is no other way and Fritz has the tools to get it done.
He holds 90% of his service games, hits his first serve 65% of the time and wins 79% of those points. Those are elite numbers. Without them he’s got no chance, but with them, there’s hope.
