The final Masters event of the season is upon us, and as always, it’s being held in Paris. Novak Djokovic will skip the event, but with top names like Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in attendance, there’s plenty to look out for.
This tournament will likely determine who completes the line up at the ATP Finals in Turin, as a few spots are still up for grabs. It’ll also give us a preview of what might happen there, with most of the field in action. Will Sinner continue to dominate the indoor swing? Can Alcaraz find a way to upset Sinner’s dominance? And who’s the best-performing player behind them?
All of that will be answered in Paris, but before that, we’ll do a quarter-by-quarter analysis to give you a better idea of what might happen at the final Masters event of the year.
ATP Paris Masters 2025 draw
A total of 56 men will battle it out for the Paris Masters title over six rounds, with the top eight seeds getting byes straight into the second round. Here’s how we expect it will unfold.
Quarter one
Seeds
- Carlos Alcaraz (1)
- Casper Ruud (8)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (9)
- Jiri Lehecka (14)
Matches to watch
- Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot (R1)
The first quarter of the Paris draw immediately stands out as one that could be very consequential for the ATP Race. Besides featuring top seed Alcaraz, it also includes Ruud and Auger-Aliassime, who still have slim hopes of qualifying for Turin.
While their chances are relatively small, a title run could propel either of them into contention, making this section not as easy for Alcaraz as one might assume. Alongside them, we also have Lehecka, who is never an easy out and brings plenty of power indoors.
Native hopefuls Rinderknech and in-form Vacherot will try to play spoiler for these top names, backed by the notorious Parisian crowd. However, Alcaraz still remains the most likely to come out on top purely based on talent.
Our prediction: Alcaraz beats Ruud
Quarter two
Seeds
- Taylor Fritz (4)
- Alex de Minaur (6)
- Karen Khachanov (10)
- Alexander Bublik (13)
Matches to watch
- Joao Fonseca vs Denis Shapovalov (R1)
- Gabriel Diallo vs Tallon Griekspoor (R1)
The second quarter is largely open because any of the seeds could make a push here. Khachanov once lifted this trophy, while the big serves of Zverev and Bublik make them both formidable opponents.
De Minaur showed last year how dangerous he can be by reaching the semifinals, though motivation remains questionable for several of the seeds. Fritz and de Minaur have all but qualified for Turin already and might not push themselves too hard, which could open the door for others.
The draw of rising star Joao Fonseca is particularly interesting, as he has a decent chance to make a run and secure a seeded spot for next year’s Australian Open. Having just beaten Shapovalov – and won his maiden ATP 500 in Basel – should give him confidence heading into this rematch.
Our prediction: De Minaur beats Bublik
Quarter three
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (3)
- Lorenzo Musetti (7)
- Daniil Medvedev (11)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (15)
Matches to watch
- Medvedev vs Jaume Munar (R1)
- Davidovich Fokina vs Ugo Humbert (R1)
The main takeaway from the third quarter is simple: what will the three biggest names do, and how motivated will they be?
Musetti will likely arrive in Paris having already secured a spot in Turin, which was his main objective prior to the season. Will he have any motivation left, or will he look ahead to the Finals? What kind of effort will Zverev bring? He’s the defending champion and, in theory, should push hard, but with Turin around the corner, that remains uncertain. Can Medvedev keep up his strong form, or will he slip back to his lackluster level?
What happens in this quarter will largely depend on the above. Players like Humbert, who reached last year’s final, won’t mind going on a run again in front of his compatriots, while Davidovich Fokina is always capable of springing an upset or two.
Our prediction: Humbert defeats Medvedev
Quarter four
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (2)
- Ben Shelton (5)
- Andrey Rublev (12)
- Jakub Mensik (16)
Matches to watch
- Zizou Bergs vs Alex Michelsen (R1)
- Flavio Cobolli vs Tomas Machac (R1)
The final quarter largely comes down to how ruthless Sinner will be. No player in this section is close to his level, but with Turin approaching and Sinner having recently played in Riyadh and Vienna, one must ask how much he’ll push himself.
There are some great tennis players besides Sinner in the draw. Rublev can play very well indoors and should be motivated to finish his season on a high note. Mensik is never easy to face, and even complete outsiders like Bergs, Cobolli, and Machac can be dangerous on their best day.
Even so, everything in this quarter depends on what Sinner does, because he’s by far the best player here.
Our prediction: Rublev beats Sinner
Final weekend predictions for 2025 Paris Masters
- Semi – Alcaraz beats de Minaur
- Semi – Humbert beats Rublev
- Final – Alcaraz beats Humbert
If you were hoping to see a Sinner vs Alcaraz final, you’re out of luck – we don’t think the Italian will make it. We do, however, expect Alcaraz to be there.
If our predictions for the last four standing come true, you’ll likely see Alcaraz in the final. And not only that, but also lifting the trophy, because he’s simply too good for the rest of the field.
The only player we see as a real threat to Alcaraz in Paris is Sinner, but he’s unlikely to go deep due to fatigue. Three consecutive deep runs in just as many weeks seems ill-advised with the ATP Finals so close. Sinner has already withdrawn from the Davis Cup, hinting at exhaustion, so this time, it should be Alcaraz’s tournament.
He’s just too well-rounded a player not to take advantage of the draw if it unfolds the way we expect.
