Sabalenka vs Keys, Australian Open Women’s Final, Odds and Predictions

Written by: Bren Gray | January 23, 2025
madison keys tennis

Somewhat surprisingly, we won’t be getting Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek in the women’s final at the 2025 Australian Open. All tournament that seemed to be where the women’s draw was headed, but courtesy of a semi-final upset, the top seed will take on American Madison Keys instead. It’s an exciting matchup between two great tennis players, so let’s dive right into our Australian Open women’s final preview.

Australian Open Women’s Final Betting Odds

Sabalenka finds herself in the Australian Open final for the third time in a row. She won the two previous times and will now have a chance to make it three in a row, which doesn’t happen often, especially not in women’s tennis. 

It’s no wonder then that the Belarusian is heavily favored against Keys, for whom this is only her second Grand Slam final. Not only that, but it’s also the first time in many years that she’s back in a final, as she stood in the 2017 US Open final which was almost eight years ago.

Here’s how tennis bookmakers are viewing the match:

  • Sabalenka to win 1.25 (-400)
  • Keys to win 4.00 (+300)

These odds imply that Sabalenka has an 80% chance of winning the match. The odds for Keys are about 25%, which shows how much of an underdog she is compared to the defending champion. 

That’s why Sabalenka is the world No 1 and the player who has looked the sharpest in Melbourne so far. She also leads the American 4-1, with her only loss being four years ago. 

Keys has got a bit more respect when it comes to some other bets though. 

For example, the over on 21.5 games pays out 2.10 (+110) with an implied probability of 47%, so the markets don’t seem to think this will be an easy one for Sabalenka. They do think that Keys will be able to keep it competitive; however, the over on the 2.5 sets pays out 2.80 (+179), which is only a 35% implied probability. 

That still means that a Sabalenka win is the most likely outcome anyway you dice it at the bookies.

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Predictions for Sabalenka vs Keys in Australian Open Women’s Final

Sabalenka and Keys have played five times so far, with Sabalenka winning four of those. While the most recent win for Keys happened in 2021 on grass, she has given Sabalenka some problems in the past. 

The reason is simple: at her best, Keys is a fantastic tennis player that is very hard to counter. She has a good serve and can hit it well. The serve bailed her out in her semi-final against Swiatek in crucial moments. She also has a tremendous baseline game when it works. 

The world No 14 can spray a lot of errors, but when she finds her range, it’s devastating. She is more streaky than Sabalenka because the top seed has found ways to control her shots better and more consistently; however, she can also spray errors under pressure. 

The matchup will come down to how each player handles the baseline. If Sabalenka brings the heat she had against Badosa, she should win the match. She is the overall better player, but it’s a tough matchup. 

Keys did hand her a bagel set at the 2023 US Open, and Sabalenka barely won that match. She did much better last year in Beijing, beating her in two sets.

Sabalenka vs Keys Betting Tips

With everything that has been laid out above, it’s pretty clear that Sabalenka is widely favored and expected to win the match. We agree with that; however, backing her to simply win doesn’t yield much return betting-wise. The odds are too low, but we found some other value we will present below.

Under 2.5 sets @ 1.45 (-222)

These aren’t spectacular odds by any means, but it’s a bet that is very likely to hit because Sabalenka has just been too good in Melbourne. This is the court where you should back her at all times, and even Keys playing well isn’t going to scare us away from backing Sabalenka to win in two simple sets. 

We really don’t expect too many issues because she’s just too consistent, and most importantly, not afraid to win as was the case in the past.

Under 21.5 sets @ 1.60 (-166)

This bet is basically in the same vein as the one above because it once again backs Sabalenka to win this match without too many problems. 

It’s just a little more risky because there is a chance that Keys might push this match to a tight score. However, we trust Sabalenka to get it done and not complicate things, which is why we’re taking these slightly higher odds compared to the above pick for essentially the same play.

These are the best value bets we found in this matchup because the rest is either unrealistic – such as Keys winning – or the odds are simply too low.

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Bren Gray

Bren has a lot of experience writing on various tennis related topics and will give us interesting news surrounding matches on the ATP and WTA tour as well as predictions and reviews.