Australian Open Final, Sinner vs Zverev, Preview and Predictions

Written by: Bren Gray | January 24, 2025
zverev win

The 2025 Australian Open final is upon us, and it’s going to be Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev. A player who won the trophy last year against a player who nearly made the final last year and has never won a Grand Slam trophy. It can’t get any better than that, so let’s dive into it.

Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Odds

Sinner has dominated in most of his matches at the Australian Open this year. It’s only natural that the Italian is heavily favored to win the trophy in Melbourne. 

As fabulous of a player as Zverev is, he has never won a Grand Slam trophy before, though he has made several finals. So, Sinner to win is 1.35 (-285), which is an implied probability of winning of 74%. That just shows how much the markets expect Sinner to win. 

Contrary to that, we have Zverev, and the odds of him winning being 3.25 (+225), which is an implied probability of 30%. It’s not too bad, but it also shows that the markets have very little faith that Zverev will actually win the match. 

They think he can, but it’s not very likely to happen, and everything we’ve seen so far from them at the event does back that up.

Predictions for Sinner vs Zverev in Australian Open Men’s Final

While Zverev has played well enough to win in Melbourne, there is a massive problem when it comes to the matchup. Sinner is an aggressive baseliner who plays most of his matches from the baseline. 

He drags you around and punishes every short or slow ball, finding the corners at an elite level. He’s the best baseliner in the sport right now, which is largely why he has dominated since basically Wimbledon of last year. He has won multiple trophies on hard courts, he’s beaten the best players consistently, and is now staring at yet another Australian Open trophy.

The reason why everybody expects Sinner to win it again is not only his hard court dominance or his comfort level in Melbourne. It’s the matchup against Zverev which heavily favors Sinner. Zverev tends to struggle a lot against baseliners like Sinner. For much of his career, he lacked the weapons and power to stand up to them.

Taylor Fritz showed that best at last year’s US Open by beating the German easily. Sinner is the same type of player, only much better than Fritz. That doesn’t bode well for Zverev. In the past, he has managed to trouble Sinner a little bit, beating him in four of the six matches they played. 

With Sinner taking his game to an elite level, that seems unlikely to happen again. The only match they played last year was won by Sinner, though it was a close three-set match, so this one could be another tight match.

stake.com betting

Sinner vs Zverev Betting Tips

Sinner to win @ 1.35 (-285)

Despite the odds not being the best, this is still a good pick based on everything we’ve seen in Melbourne. Zverev has been good, but when it really comes down to it, many aren’t sold that he will be able to stand up to Sinner.

When the match is being played from the baseline, will Zverev have the massive forehand that he’ll need to win the match, or will he get pushed around by Sinner and his tremendous shot-making?

We tend to gravitate to the latter – particularly since he was quite passive in his one-set semi-final against Novak Djokovic – which is why we recommend taking Sinner to win the match despite the odds not being all that high. It’s still the most likely outcome.

sinner ao 2025
Sinner unstoppable?

Over 36.5 games @ 1.60 (-166)

While we do think that Sinner will win the match, we’re not sure that the match will be all that easy for the Italian. Zverev has a massive serve and will use it to try and keep the matchup close. 

Don’t be surprised if we see a few tiebreaks in this match because they will likely play rather close sets. That’s the best bet for Zverev to win the match because he can’t win if he goes all out on barrage contests against the best bomber in tennis. Just look at the match they played last year in Cincinnati. The sets went 7-6, 7-5, 7-6. Take the over.

First set over 9.5 games @ 1.60 (-166)

Similar to the pick above, we’re going to back the opening set being rather close. Sinner has had some slow starts in his matches which might happen again. Zverev has generally done well in the opening sets, though he doesn’t break as often against some of the best.

His opening set against Djokovic also went to a tiebreak. Their match last year in Cincinnati also had the first set finish in a tiebreak. Zverev will be on alert in the first set knowing how crucial it is to the match outcome, so expect a close one where this 9.5 line should be easily cleared.

Head over to our betting section to place a bet on the final!

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Bren Gray

Bren has a lot of experience writing on various tennis related topics and will give us interesting news surrounding matches on the ATP and WTA tour as well as predictions and reviews.