It’s the final weekend of the Madrid Open and top seed Aryna Sabalenka and no 4 seed Coco Gauff face off today in the women’s singles final, an exciting clash between two in-form players fighting for the first WTA 1000 clay title of the season. Sabalenka chases her third Madrid title and Gauff is looking for her first. Let’s look at the numbers ahead of the Sabalenka vs Gauff final along with our predictions.
Road to the Final
Sabalenka, 26, has as expected been a force this season, showing a tour-leading 30-5 record and titles in Brisbane and Miami. Her Madrid run has been efficient, dropping just one set in five matches. Following wins over Anna Blinkova and Elise Mertens, we’ve seen straight-set victories over Peyton Stearns (6-2, 6-4), Marta Kostyuk and later Elina Svitolina (6-3, 7-5) in the semifinals.
The Belarusian enjoys the condition in Madrid and has two previous titles (2021 and 2023), she also reached the final last year. Madrid’s high-altitude clay, suits her aggressive serves and forehand, though she’s been broken 11 times this tournament.
Gauff, 21, has found her stride in Madrid, and she’s looking better than ever. This is her her first final of 2025 with a 19-6 record. After a shaky start – losing the first set 6-0 to Dayana Yastremska she has gone on a streak, including impressive wins over Andreeva and Swiatek. Gauff dropped just two points on her first serve and hit 18 winners to Swiatek’s seven, marking her third straight win over the World no 2.
Gauff’s clay record is less prolific than Sabalenka’s, but she has shown before she can handle the pressure in big matches.
Head-to-Head
Gauff leads their head-to-head 5-4, winning their most recent clash 7-6(4), 6-3 at the 2024 WTA Finals. Sabalenka took two of three 2024 meetings, including a 7-6(2), 6-4 Australian Open semifinal win and a 1-6, 6-4, 6-4 comeback in Wuhan. Their only clay meeting was Gauff’s 7-5, 6-3 victory in Rome 2021.
Predictions and Odds
Sabalenka is the bookes favorite at odds around 1.73 (-137.5 or 8/11) while a Gauff win gives 2.10 (+110 or 11/10)
This is a tough one, Sabalenka is surely the most complete player on the WTA tour, her movement looks even better this season as well. Gauff is looking really strong in Spain though and the 2-0 win over Swiatek was impressive. She also won their last meeting and has a good record against the world no 1 and in finals overall.
This might be a 3-set battle and we found value in the hcp bet for Coco Gauff.
Our bet: Game handicap Gauff (+2.5) at odds 1.73 (-137.5 or 8/11)
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