ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 2025 Final Preview
Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper
May 4, 2025 | 18:30 CEST
Head-to-Head: First Meeting
The final of the 2025 ATP Masters 1000 Madrid tournament will feature an intriguing clash between Casper Ruud and Jack Draper. Both players have been in excellent form throughout the week, each securing five consecutive wins en route to the championship match.
Casper Ruud enters the final having won all five of his matches in straight sets. The Norwegian has displayed remarkable consistency and resilience, especially on his favored clay surface. In the round of 16, he faced Taylor Fritz and came out on top with a composed 7-5, 6-4 victory. Ruud maintained control for most of the match and handled key moments with maturity.
His quarterfinal match against Daniil Medvedev was another straight-sets win, with Ruud showcasing his composure under pressure by saving both breakpoints he faced. In the semifinals, Francisco Cerundolo posed a significant challenge. Ruud was a break down in both sets but managed to rally and secure a 6-4, 7-5 win. Notably, he saved 15 out of 18 breakpoints, underlining his mental toughness. This run marks a strong improvement from his 2024 Madrid campaign, where he was eliminated in the fourth round by Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Jack Draper has matched Ruud’s unbeaten streak this week with five victories of his own. He started his tournament with a straight-sets win over Tallon Griekspoor, during which he only faced and saved a single breakpoint. In the third round, he benefited from a retirement by Matteo Berrettini after claiming the first set in a tight tiebreak.
Draper’s form only improved as the tournament progressed. In the quarterfinals, he dominated Matteo Arnaldi without facing a single breakpoint. His serving has been a major weapon throughout the week. In the semifinals, Draper overpowered Lorenzo Musetti, controlling the match from the first point to the last. His powerful baseline play and aggressive serve have been key factors in his success. Read more about Draper’s racquet setup.
Predictions and Best Bet Recommendation
Despite Draper being listed as the slight favorite by tennis bookmakers, some analysts see Ruud as the more likely winner due to his experience and comfort on clay. While Draper has been one of the most consistent players on hard courts recently, he has struggled to find similar success on clay. Last season, he managed just four wins on the surface across all events.
Given Ruud’s clay-court pedigree and the form he has shown this week, it is expected that he will make this final highly competitive. The matchup may be closer than the odds suggest, especially considering Draper’s relative inexperience on clay at this level.
Casper Ruud covering the games handicap is a value bet in our opinion.
Value bet / the best odds for Ruud vs Draper: Casper Ruud +2.5 games handicap at odds 1.83, -120 or 5/6.
Head over to our betting page if you’d like to place a bet on the final.
