After a very successful quarterfinal betting of the Rome Masters, we aim to continue our streak into the semi’s, where we can look forward to some really big matches, in world no 1 Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti.
Sinner vs. Paul
16.05.2025 at 20:30 CEST
Head-to-Head: 3-1
Jannik Sinner is currently riding a remarkable 28-match winning streak. He returns to action in Rome following a three-month suspension related to anti-doping protocol violations. This week, he began his campaign with a straightforward straight-sets win over Navone. In the third round, he defeated de Jong, also in straight sets, despite dropping serve twice. The Round of 16 saw a more competitive match against Cerundolo, but Sinner still advanced in straight sets. In today’s quarterfinal, he delivered an exceptional performance, dismantling Ruud 6-0, 6-1.
Tommy Paul, like his semifinal opponent, has won four of his last five matches. In the opening round, Paul dispatched Bautista-Agut in straight sets without offering any breakpoints. His biggest challenge came in the third round against Machac, where he prevailed in three tightly contested sets. The American was the stronger player in the decider, sealing the win after nearly three hours on court. Paul then caused an upset by defeating de Minaur in the Round of 16. In today’s quarterfinal, he overcame Hurkacz in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
The odds strongly favour Sinner, and based on current form, that seems justified. His performance against Ruud, who is generally a stronger clay-court player than Paul, was nothing short of dominant. With the full support of the home crowd behind him, Sinner is expected to deliver another convincing victory.
Therefore, backing Sinner to cover the games handicap is a value bet.
Value Bet / Best Odds: Jannik Sinner -5.5 games handicap @-110 or 1.91
Alcaraz vs. Musetti
16.05.2025 at 15:30 CEST
Head-to-Head: 5-1
Carlos Alcaraz enters this semifinal having won four of his last five matches. This marks his second appearance in Rome. In the opening round, he defeated Lajovic with a solid 6-3, 6-3 performance. Facing another Serbian opponent in the third round, Alcaraz overcame a slow start, trailing 1-3 in the first set against Djere before turning the match around. His toughest test came in the Round of 16, where he battled past Khachanov in a three-set contest that lasted nearly three hours. In today’s quarterfinal, Alcaraz overcame Draper in straight sets. Notably, during his debut campaign in Rome, Alcaraz was eliminated in the third round by Marozsan.
Lorenzo Musetti also comes into this match with four wins in his last five outings. In his home tournament this week, Musetti opened with a straight-sets win over Virtanen, not facing a single breakpoint. In the third round, he dispatched Nakashima 6-4, 6-3, conceding just one breakpoint, which he saved. The Italian continued his strong form by defeating Medvedev in two tight sets during the Round of 16. In yesterday’s quarterfinals, Musetti won in straight sets against Zverev, notably saving four set points in the opening set.
Best Bet to Make
The bookmakers have listed Alcaraz as the favourite for this match, and we agree with that assessment. Earlier this year, Alcaraz dominated Musetti in the final of the ATP Monte Carlo, particularly in the second and third sets. A similar outcome is anticipated tomorrow. Alcaraz is the superior clay-court player and exhibits stronger mental resilience under pressure compared to Musetti.
With that in mind, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value Bet / Best Odds: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games handicap @1.73 or -137.5.
