Novak Djokovic has been one of the best performers at Roland Garros over the past decade. The Serbian has won the event three times in that span while also contesting several more finals. He has reached the final six out of the last 10 attempts and even won the Olympics that were played on those same courts.
It’s clear that he enjoys competing there, but does that mean Djokovic will win the 2025 French Open? Not necessarily, because tennis is complicated like that. So, let’s dive into the numbers and see what his chances really look like.
Read more here about Djokovic career and his current racquet.
Djokovic’s year so far
It’s no secret that Novak Djokovic hasn’t had a great year so far. He has played only 19 matches, winning 12 of them. Those numbers are decent, but the loss column tells the real story. He already has seven defeats—just one shy of his total in 2023 and only three short of last year’s tally. That’s too many losses for a player of his caliber.
Age is certainly a contributing factor, especially on clay, where two of those seven losses occurred. He has looked a step too slow on this surface, which is a real problem because clay is the least forgiving when it comes to that.
Another telling sign is who he has lost to. He hasn’t suffered defeat to Carlos Alcaraz on clay. Instead, he has lost to Matteo Arnaldi and Alejandro Tabilo. They are solid players, but they are not world-beaters.
A historically-poor clay season
When we analyze the numbers, things don’t look too promising for Djokovic. Each year he has either won Roland Garros or reached the final, he has managed to win at least one match leading up to the tournament on clay.
In many cases, he has won multiple matches, but this year might be the first time in a long while that he arrives in Paris without a single clay court victory. He has taken a similar approach to last year by accepting a wildcard entry into the Geneva Open, where he hopes to get at least one win on the surface before heading to Paris. But we’ll see if that actually happens.
His decision to do so suggests that Djokovic is aware his preparation has been insufficient and that he needs a few more matches. All the preparation in the world won’t mean much if he doesn’t play competitively.
What Djokovic is saying
Djokovic has spoken at length about his struggles this year, admitting that this is simply his new reality. Speaking after his exit from the Madrid Open, he didn’t hide his disappointment about losing early:
“I was hoping I could play one more match than I did in Monte-Carlo. [It’s] kind of a new reality for me, I have to say—trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament… It’s a completely different feeling from what I had in 20-plus years of professional tennis. It’s a challenge for me mentally to really face these kinds of sensations on the court, going out early now regularly in tournaments.”
He has also apologized for some of his recent performances, showing that he knows things haven’t gone well and that he is working to address the situation.
One major change was parting ways with Andy Murray, which happened in the meantime as well. While the tennis world buzzed about that partnership, it hasn’t worked out as expected, and the duo is no longer together. Djokovic has reportedly assembled a new team, indicating that he is searching for the right formula.
Djokovic’s chances at the 2025 French Open
Fans shouldn’t lose all hope though, because his tennis brilliance is still there. When you watch him play, you can see flashes of sharpness. It’s more of a physical issue—his body isn’t quite the same machine anymore. He’s a step too slow, his serve isn’t as accurate, and there is slightly less power in his shots.
All of that impacts the outcome of a match, and he hasn’t yet found an adjustment that will make him competitive again. There isn’t much time left before Roland Garros, which is why his chances of winning aren’t great.
His struggles have mostly been against fairly average players rather than the sport’s superstars. If he hasn’t been able to beat those opponents, he is unlikely to overcome the likes of Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner—especially not in a best-of-five format, which has proved challenging for him recently. Two of the last four Grand Slams he played were affected by physical issues, and clay is the least forgiving surface of them all.
So, does Djokovic have any hope of winning the 2025 French Open?
Yes, he has hope; but with average form, a historically-poor clay swing, and a body that keeps breaking, that hope is fairly slim. The sportsbooks are currently offering good betting odds, around 11 times the money, for anyone betting on him to win in Paris. What chances do you give Novak at the French Open this summer?
