The French Open is coming up, and this year might be the first time in a while that a first-time champion is crowned. Both the men’s and women’s sides of the sport have tremendous parity at the moment, and there are a few players who could win it despite never having done so before. So, let’s break it down.
Potential first-time French Open men’s winners
- Jannik Sinner
- Casper Ruud
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Alexander Zverev
- Jack Draper
Jannik Sinner
Sinner is obviously no new name in tennis, as the Italian is a three-time Grand Slam winner. Having been there and done that on the biggest stage greatly increases his chances of winning Roland Garros simply because it’s not an easy feat. Anytime you have something that’s difficult to achieve, prior experience helps tremendously.
There have been numerous instances where players have spoken about literally shaking on match points at Grand Slams. As someone who has held his nerve at least three times already, Sinner has all the qualities needed to get it done.
Clay is a great surface for him because his shot-making puts him above 99% of other players when it comes to determining the outcome of a rally. On clay, being proactive is key, and as someone whose ball-striking has been described as machine-like in recent years, Sinner is supremely qualified to dominate rallies on a slow surface like the one in Paris.
The biggest factor that might hurt his chances is the lack of matches he will have played leading into this one. He just served a three-month suspension for failing a drug test last year, only recently returning in Rome. While he has looked pretty good, he still won’t have too many matches under his belt by the time he arrives in Paris.
He might play himself into shape at the tournament, which would help. Still, as the best player in the world—or at least someone who was before his suspension—he has what it takes to win the event. If he does, it will be the first time he claims the title.
As of now, Sinner is just second favorite to win the Roland Garros after Alcaraz, at odds around 3.50, +250 or 5/2.
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud is no stranger to success at Roland Garros, having reached the final twice. His unfortunate fate was facing two of the greatest players to have ever competed at the tournament—Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. He wasn’t able to overcome either of them, but given his excellent clay season so far, his name deserves to be mentioned.
Ruud has a strong game on clay. He has a decent first serve, which tends to show up when it matters most. His massive forehand can cause a lot of damage, especially when he directs it to the backhand side, which tends to be the weaker area for most players.
He also moves very well on clay, having grown up playing on the surface and likely preferring it over all others—certainly more than grass. He’s in great shape overall, allowing him to battle for multiple sets. All of that, combined with the strong form he has shown by winning the Madrid Open and playing well at the Italian Open so far, puts him in the category of players who could go all the way.
Having reached the final twice, he possesses the experience that many players lack. If he does manage to triumph this time, he will be a first-time Grand Slam champion.
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti, besides being known for having gorgeous hair, has always been recognized as a truly fine clay operator. He is a player whose game is tailor-made for clay tennis, and his results have backed that up.
As a teenager, Musetti jumped out to a 2-0 lead against Novak Djokovic at Roland Garros. That was in 2021, and two years later, he would once again push Djokovic to five sets at Roland Garros. While he wasn’t able to win either, his pedigree was on display.
He has also won trophies on the surface and has beaten Carlos Alcaraz in a final, proving himself to be a legitimate force. A beautiful one-handed backhand, along with an overall poised and mature game, makes Musetti a player who won’t beat himself. He has learned not to crumble under pressure in recent years, which makes him a dangerous opponent.
He won the bronze medal at the Olympics last year, which was played on the Roland Garros courts, so he has shown he can perform well there. It’s all about things clicking for him, and the way he has played this year could mean that this is his year.
Having recently cracked the world’s top 10, Musetti has all the tools needed, and he has matured into a player who can win big trophies. If he does, he will be a first-time champion. Read more about Musetti and his current racquet.
Alexander Zverev
The amount of winning that Zverev has done at Roland Garros in recent years makes you blink twice before realizing that he actually never won the event. Even without claiming the title, Zverev has possibly been the most successful player at the tournament over the past few years.
He reached the semi-final in 2021, 2022, and 2023, then made the final last year. That’s a lot of winning for Zverev, who holds a 21-4 record at the French Open over the past few seasons. That’s the best record of any player competing this year, which is why he belongs on this list as well.
What makes Zverev so tough to beat in Paris is primarily his serve, which is arguably the best weapon in tennis when it’s working well. We’ve seen how effective it can be—especially in Melbourne earlier this year, where it powered him through most matchups.
It just gives him an edge in most rallies. Then there’s his movement, which is incredible for a player of his size on clay. That advantage comes from growing up on the surface and playing on it for nearly 20 years now. Plus, there’s his defensive skills—winning a rally against him isn’t easy. He gets to every ball, sending it back until opponents either have to hit a crazy angle or make an error.
His physical conditioning is also underrated. Despite being diabetic, he is arguably one of the fittest players on Tour, capable of playing for hours. But what has fully unlocked his game since last year is his shift to a more aggressive, attacking style. That’s why he made the final last year and nearly won it. If he does triumph this time around, he will be a first-time Grand Slam champion.
Jack Draper
While Jack Draper isn’t known for his major success on clay, the British player has the tools to win the event because his game is so devastating when on point. Draper has emerged as the breakout star of this season, winning Indian Wells in sensational fashion and surging into the world’s top five.
He also made the Madrid Open final and nearly won it before running out of gas in the closing stages of the match. His run in Madrid came because that event plays relatively fast compared to traditional clay, but even on regular clay, he can be a tough opponent.
The Brit’s serve is incredible and a massive weapon. He has a powerful forehand and a very strong backhand—exactly what is needed for success. He’s not the typical clay-court specialist, but because his game can be so overwhelming when it’s on point, he deserves a mention.
The 23-year-old has also been tremendously consistent this year and seems to have put his injury woes behind him, putting him in contention to become a first-time French Open winner.
Honorable mentions
Two notable names not touched on above are Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune.
The former has reached the final of the French Open previously, and holds a 29-8 record at Roland Garros. In fact, it’s been one of Tsitsipas’ most successful tournaments, making the fourth-round or better in the past six editions. He also has five clay court titles to his name, three of which are Masters 1000s. However, the Greek is in poor form, and won’t even be seeded in the top 16 this year, so is unlikely to make a run.
Rune, on the other hand, has more to his resume in 2025. He won Barcelona, beating Carlos Alcaraz in the final, and has made the quarter-finals of Roland Garros in two of the last three years. However, he’s proven to be far too unreliable physically, that the prospect of him winning seven matches in a row – in best-of-five – is highly unlikely.
Arthur Fils, Francisco Cerundolo, Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca were also given consideration, but they’re not quite there yet.
Potential first-time French Open women’s winners
- Aryna Sabalenka
- Coco Gauff
- Mirra Andreeva
- Jasmine Paolini
- Qinwen Zheng
Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka is the best player in the world right now and, as such, obviously deserves a mention as someone who could win this event. She has never made the final nor won the tournament, which is why she’s on this list.
She’s capable of it, though, because her affinity for slow clay has grown over the years. Despite disliking it early on, she has slowly but surely transformed into a consistent hitter who overwhelms opponents with ease. With such a devastating game, Sabalenka is clearly one of the top contenders to win the event.
The Belarusian has also been in very good form leading up to Paris, with only a handful of players coming close in that regard. As a Grand Slam champion, she also has that experience, which could prove crucial when those moments of doubt arise. Read more about Sabalenka’s racquet.
Right now, Sabalenka is second favorite to win the Roland Garros after Swiatek, at odds around 3.25, +225 or 9/4.
Coco Gauff
Another player who has been very good on clay for a long time is Coco Gauff. She has made the final here before, and while she didn’t win that one, she now looks like a player capable of finally claiming the title.
The American has made tremendous strides as a player, especially in the mental department—no longer fearing the top names like Iga Swiatek. Having actually won a big trophy at the WTA Finals, Gauff has finally cemented herself among the elite in the sport.
She is also a Grand Slam champion, which is a massive advantage over players who have never achieved that, as it is a unique experience. Having been there and done that makes Gauff much more likely to repeat it, even if it’s at an event she has never won before.
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva has, for about a month this year, looked like the best player in tennis. She has cooled off a bit since then, as the law of averages suggested would happen. Even so, Andreeva remains a player capable of going all the way. Find out more about Andreeva and her racquet setup here.
Last year, she took out Sabalenka en route to a maiden semi-final, where she couldn’t hold her nerves against the relentless Jasmine Paolini. She’s a much better player now—stronger, too—which is crucial.
She remains one of the most tactically sound players, which is an advantage that can carry her far. If she finds her best tennis and stays poised, rather than how she has been this year, which seems likely given her breakout season, she can get it done.
Jasmine Paolini
As tremendous as her breakout last year was, it wasn’t a fluke. Paolini hasn’t performed as well this year, but she has remained a really steadfast player, proving her consistency.
She’s not losing too many matches and is still beating the players she’s expected to defeat, keeping her ranking intact. Reaching two Grand Slam finals last year was a reflection of her caliber, and if she makes another one this year, it won’t be a surprise.
The Italian really is just that good these days, and on clay, she will have opportunities that she might not find on other surfaces. Some limitations in her game remain, and if she wins, it would be an upset—but she’s capable of it, and having stood in the final last year, her chances are far from nonexistent.
Qinwen Zheng
When we look at a player who could possibly win an event such as this, we’re considering both the skills needed to get it done and the history of coming close to achieving it. Zheng fits both criteria, as she is a player who has reached a Grand Slam final in the past too.
She didn’t win it, but having that experience will serve her well. She is also a player who has proven to be very strong on clay, with past performances that included beating Swiatek on these Paris courts last year at the Olympics.
Zheng actually won that event, so she has shown she can triumph in Paris. If everything clicks for her at the right time, she might finally claim her maiden Grand Slam trophy. She’s capable, she has the tools, and she has the experience. Now, it’s all about whether she can rise to the occasion when it matters most.
Honorable mentions
There are some honorable mentions on the WTA side of things as well. Jessica Pegula has been a very consistent tennis player, but she has yet to achieve the big breakthrough. She has reached a final and plays well on clay, so she deserves a mention.
Karolina Muchova is a player who has stood in a Grand Slam final before and nearly won it. She has all the qualities needed to win a major, but her health has been a persistent issue she has yet to overcome. Still, she is deserving of a mention.
Madison Keys finally won a Grand Slam earlier this year, and while she hasn’t replicated that level since, the American has proven she is capable. As such, she also deserves recognition.
Elina Svitolina has been strong on clay for years, and while she has yet to win a Grand Slam, Paris is the one place where she seems most likely to get it done. She appears highly motivated, and this could be one of her last chances.
