ATP Australian Open quarterfinals with odds and predictions
Tommy Paul vs Alexander Zverev: 21.01.2025 04:00 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Tommy Paul has won four of his last five matches. Tommy won the opening round match against O’Connell in five tight sets in Melbourne. Paul’s experience prevailed in that match. In the second round, Tommy defeated Nishikori after losing the first set 6-7. Paul lost only four games in the last three sets. In the third round, Tommy defeated Carballes Baena in easy straight sets. Yesterday, in the 1/8-Finals, Paul defeated Davidovich Fokina in straight sets, as we predicted. Last year in Melbourne, Tommy reached the third round, losing against Kecmanovic in five sets.
Alexander Zverev has won six straight matches. So far this season, Sascha has only played in the United Cup, winning both matches. In his opening match here in Melbourne, Sascha defeated Pouille in straight sets. In the second round, Zverev easily defeated Pablo Martinez in straight sets. Fearnely also had no answer for Sascha’s game in the third round. Yesterday, in the 1/8-Finals, Zverev had his biggest challenge. He defeated Humbert in four sets. Last year in Melbourne, Alexander was 2-0 up against Medvedev in the semifinals. Daniil turned the match around.
Best odds for Tommy Paul v Zverev:
Looking at the bookmakers here, Zverev is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Tommy Paul played great so far this week and he will be more relaxed on the court than Zverev, who has the pressure of the whole world on his shoulders. We expect a tight match between these two, that could go either way.
We think that Paul covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul +4.5 games handicap @ 1.80 or -125
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: 21.01.2025 10:30 CEST
H2H: 4-4
Novak Djokovic has won four of his last five matches. In the opening Australian Open round, Novak defeated Basavareddy in four sets. Nishesh kept the match tight, as we predicted. After that, in the second round, Novak won against Faria in four sets. Novak lost the second set due to the amount of unforced errors he made. In the third round, Djokovic defeated Machac in easy straight sets and showed great tennis. Another Czech had now answer for Djokovic’s game. Novak defeated Lehecka in straight sets yesterday in the 1/8-Finals. Djokovic reached the semifinals in the Australian Open last year, losing against Sinner in four sets.
Carlos Alcaraz has won five straight matches. In his opening matches, Carlos had no problems against Shevchenko and Nishioka. The Spaniard had a great 2024 season, winning two Grand Slam titles, how will Alcaraz 2025 season go? In the third round, Alcaraz defeated Borges in comfortable four sets. Yesterday in the 1/8-Finals, Alcaraz won the first two sets against Draper when the Brit retired. Last year in Melbourne, Carlos reached the quarterfinals, losing against Zverev in four sets.
Best odds for Djokovic v Alcaraz:
According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. At this moment, Carlos is a better hard-court player than Djokovic. Novak is the biggest champion at the Australian Open, but he is far from his best level. We expect Alcaraz to dominate in this match.
That being said, Alcaraz covering the games handicap is a good value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games handicap @ 1.83 or -120