Carlos Alcaraz without a doubt is one of the most exciting tennis players in recent years – when he broke onto the tour, people even saw him beating the records of the Big 3. However, his 2024 season was very up-and-down with two Grand Slams followed by just more than 2000 points in total from the other tournaments. It seems that he has not yet established the consistency that Sinner was able to show throughout last year, but where will he go with this in 2025?
The breakdown of 2024
Carlos Alcaraz started the 2024 season directly at the Australian Open, which is usual for top players to do. His first matches were looking good, as he defeated Gasquet, Sonego, Shang and Kecmanovic pretty handily. He was regarded the number one favorite for the season after his second Grand Slam in 2023, but Alexander Zverev beat him in a tight, high-level match in the quarterfinals. In hindsight, his chances might have been good to reach the final against Sinner, it was just a magnificent Zverev that beat him in Australia. The following South American swing presented no titles and a first ankle injury and seemed to prevent him from winning any title in the Sunshine Masters.
But here is where his season got interesting – between his Indian Wells title and his second Wimbledon title, he had a 27-3 record on tour and played outstanding tennis. The only early round exit was against an inspired Jack Draper at Queens, which he immediately corrected at SW19. He seemed to carry this form into the Olympics, where he obviously struggled with the expectations and playing for his country in the final and subsequently lost to Djokovic. Whether it was the mental strain from this experience or just general exhaustion, the following months were much less successful for Alcaraz. He withdrew from Montreal, lost his first match in Cincinnati and the second round of the US Open. His total record including the ATP finals was 11-6 after the Olympics, leaving him in third place in the rankings behind Sinner and Zverev.
The reasons for this season might be various, as he suffered a couple of injuries and also had mental struggles in general. Additionally, he competed in various exhibitions and seemed exhausted at times in the season, where he was far from his usual best. It will be interesting to see whether his team will take some lessons from 2024 to improve the upcoming season.
The changes for 2025
The most glaring change – next to his new haircut – is that Alcaraz seems to have changed his serve motion significantly. It is more fluid and natural now from the outside but also seems to be a bit harder to replicate, looking at his training sessions in Australia. But if we are honest, it is pretty obvious that the serve was one of his few weaknesses last year and is the logical spot to improve. They will surely also work on the other shots, the strategies and mental aspects, but the serve seems to be a focal point for 2025. It was also reported that he added some weight in the throat to his previously close to retail-specs Pure Aero 98. While his game is one that can benefit from a light swing weight, it seemed that he was pushed around by heavy hitters at times and he might just look for that extra bit of stability.
Another key change is his scheduling, where he will not go to South America for the first time but rather play the Davis Cup qualifiers and then head to Rotterdam after Australia. His indoor hardcourt results are still behind expectations, and this might be a core reason for him to play this tournament in 2025. He also seems to focus his clay season more towards the European swing, where he withdrew from Barcelona and Monte Carlo in 2024, but is signed up for the regular build-up towards Paris this year.
The 2025 prediction
In total, Alcaraz doesn’t have a lot of points to defend outside of three main tournaments, which gives him a very good chance to improve his ranking in 2025. If he can win another Slam while improving in the parts in between, he will be in for a battle for No. 1 with Sinner. The Italian will surely have a hard time to replicate his stunning 2024 and Alcaraz seems to have learned a few lessons along the way. Overall, I would still rank him as the player with the higher ceiling, given that he stays physically fit and improves mentally.
And that is where his season will be decided in my opinion – if Alcaraz can maintain the mentality he shows at highlights and favored tournaments, he will also be successful indoors or at the Masters around the world. The ATP tour has become a very close race again, where there are a lot of young challengers and strong players in their prime that all want their shot at a big title. Plus, every now and then, you get a surprising week out of players such as Popyrin, Mpetshi Perricard or Fils that can beat everyone on tour in that given frame. But overall, Carlos Alcaraz remains the player with the biggest potential easily, if he can manage his own and external expectations and stay focused for the big moments.
His Australian Open draw will be interesting to follow already, as he shares a quarter of the draw with record champ Novak Djokovic, Jack Draper, Grigor Dimitrov and Sebastian Korda. To make matters harder, he could run into Zverev again in a possible semifinal. It seems that he definitely has one of the harder draws of the top seeds and will have to bring his best game.
My prediction is a Alcaraz – Sinner final though, and a total season that will boil down to this rivalry with a close first place finish for the Spaniard this time. How do you see his AO and total season chances? Let me know in the comments!
