Tonight, April 26, the Madrid Open second round features an intriguing clash at the Caja Mágica as 18-year-old Brazilian João Fonseca takes on American No. 11 seed Tommy Paul. Set for the evening session on Manolo Santana Stadium, this first-ever meeting sees a rising star against a more experienced top-20 player. Here’s a look at their form, stats and our predictions for Fonseca vs Tommy Paul.
João Fonseca, born on clay
Fonseca, currently ranked no 65 in the world, is looking to be in form in his second Madrid Open appearance. The Brazilian, who won his first ATP title on Buenos Aires clay in February, kicked off the Madrid event with a commanding 6-2, 6-3 win over Danish qualifier Elmer Moller on Thursday. He converted four of 13 break points and didn’t face a single break point. “I love playing on clay. I was born on the clay, so I like to play on it,” Fonseca said after the match.
His 2025 season includes a 10-5 ATP-level record, with Challenger titles in Canberra and Phoenix, plus top-20 wins over Andrey Rublev (Australian Open) and Ugo Humbert (Miami). Fonseca’s third-round run in Miami, where he pushed Alex de Minaur to three sets (7-5, 5-7, 3-6), proved he can challenge the big guys already. Madrid’s high-altitude clay, which quickens the ball, suits his big forehand and heavy topspin.
Tommy Paul, ranked no 12, enters as the 11th seed with a first-round bye. His 2025 season stands at 15-6, with semifinals in Adelaide, Dallas, and Houston, plus an Australian Open quarterfinal. However, his clay game lags behind. Paul’s career clay record is 24-28, and in Madrid, he’s 2-4, with a third-round appearance in 2023 as his best.
This is a tough first round clash for Paul and he needs to get back to the form he showed at the beginning of the season.
H2H and Predictions
This is the first ATP meeting between Fonseca and Paul, though Fonseca noted they practiced together in Madrid last year. Fonseca’s clay comfort gives him a slight edge. His powerful forehand and ability to redirect pace, seen in his Moller win, could be important vs Paul’s weaker clay movement. The tennis sportsbooks has Fonseca at clear favorite at odds 1.63 or -162.5.
Paul, however, won’t go quietly. His very strong return game could pressure Fonseca’s serve, especially if the Brazilian’s first-serve percentage dips. Paul’s experience in high-stakes matches gives him a small mental advantage over the 18-year-old. The winner faces Karen Khachanov or Reilly Opelka in the third round, with potential clashes against Novak Djokovic or Jack Draper looming further on.
Predictions: Paul is never to be underestimated, but the Brazilian’s aggressive style suits Madrid’s conditions and he’s in slightly better form at the moment. We’ll go for a 2-1 set betting win for Fonseca, at odds around 4 times the money.
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