The 2025 Australian Open draw is out, and that means it’s time for analysis. Not just analysis, but everything from first-round match ups, final weekend predictions and everything in between. Read on below for all you need to know about this year’s Australian Open draw.
Australian Open draw: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Quarter one
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Alex de Minaur (8)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (11)
- Holger Rune (13)
- Hubert Hurkacz (18)
- Karen Khachanov (19)
- Francisco Cerundolo (31)
- Flavio Cobolli (32)
Likely quarter-final: Jannik Sinner beats Alex de Minaur
The first quarter, as always, features the top seed, which is Jannik Sinner. He’s not the only good player in this quarter, as there are a few making it a rather tricky one. Players like Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas can do some damage, albeit probably not beat Sinner.
The thing that is good for top seed Sinner is the record he has against these players. He’s beaten most of them without too many problems. When we look at his level from last year, it’s even more of a stark difference.
Alex de Minaur is the wild card here, as he’s at home and has improved significantly. The Aussie, however, lacks major weapons, so even with all the crowd support, he isn’t likely to do much damage.
As we predicted above, we certainly expect Sinner to come out of this quarter because he’s by far the best player. It remains to be seen whether his form has rolled over from 2024, as he hasn’t really played any prep events this year, but if it has, nobody can touch him here. Overall, not the toughest quarter, but it won’t be a cakewalk either.
First round matches to watch:
- Jannik Sinner vs Nicolas Jarry
- Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Berrettini
Quarter two
- Taylor Fritz (4)
- Daniil Medvedev (6)
- Andrey Rublev (9)
- Lorenzo Musetti (16)
- Frances Tiafoe (17)
- Alexei Popyrin (25)
- Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard (30)
Likely quarter-final: Taylor Fritz beats Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is the biggest name in this quarter, but the Russian might face some issues against Taylor Fritz. The American’s style is tailor-made for the Australian Open, and he’s had some good performances here in the past as well.
Medvedev might also be a bit sleep-deprived, having become a father for the second time recently. Or maybe he’ll get a dad boost and perform even better. It’s an interesting quarter with lots of very solid players, though no clear favorite.
By logic, it should be Fritz, but Medvedev can also come out of this quarter without too many problems. Andrey Rublev could as well, though he’s had a tough time getting past the quarter-final at Grand Slams.
Even Lorenzo Musetti is not a long shot, as he made the Wimbledon semi-final last year, and he got there by beating none other than Fritz. So keep an eye on that because the Australian Open is no stranger to surprises. Every year has some, and this quarter looks like one that could give us that.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will be a nightmare to face for many players. Nobody knows what kind of level Frances Tiafoe will bring. And Alexei Popyrin is another Aussie who will take his chances if he gets them.
First round matches to watch:
- Corentin Moutet vs Alexei Popyrin
- Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard
Quarter three
- Carlos Alcaraz (3)
- Novak Djokovic (7)
- Grigor Dimitrov (10)
- Jack Draper (15)
- Sebastian Korda (22)
- Jiri Lehecka (24)
- Tomas Machac (26)
- Jordan Thompson (27)
Likely quarter-final: Carlos Alcaraz beats Tomas Machac
Ten-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic landed in a brutally tough quarter. It features lots of very notable players as seeds, as well as some landmines like Thanasi Kokkinakis, who isn’t even a seed.
Not only is Carlos Alcaraz in his quarter, but a bunch of other players who can technically beat him. Djokovic isn’t a world-beater anymore, and he can be played against, especially when you play a relentlessly attacking style, which is prevalent among most of the players that are in his quarter.
If he passes the Basavareddy test, which won’t be easy, Djokovic will have to face Reilly Opelka or Tomas Machac. That’s a really hard matchup either way you slice it, especially if he gets Machac, who has played stellar tennis in 2025. There is no guarantee that he would beat him. The same goes for the rest of the players.
There is Jiri Lehecka, who just won Brisbane, Grigor Dimitrov, who was in the semi-final of that event, and Sebastian Korda, who is notoriously difficult to play against in Australia. And if he somehow manages to get past all of that, then he has to face a rather inspired Alcaraz, who is eager to prove himself down under.
It doesn’t look very good for the 10-time Australian Open champion, though it’s Djokovic. You never want to count him out completely, but this is not the quarter where you want to be. That would be the next one, Alexander Zverev’s quarter.
First round matches to watch:
- Novak Djokovic vs Nishesh Basavareddy
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Shevchenko
Quarter four
- Alexander Zverev (2)
- Casper Ruud (6)
- Tommy Paul (12)
- Ugo Humbert (14)
- Arthur Fils (20)
- Alejandro Tabilo (23)
- Sebastian Baez (28)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (29)
Likely quarter-final: Alexander Zverv beats Tommy Paul
This quarter might be the weakest quarter out of all of them. It’s not just because Alexander Zverev is the top seed in this one. Zverev is a marvelous player, but it’s filled with lots of seeds that are highly unproven in events like this.
Players like Arthur Fils, Ugo Humbert and Alejandro Tabilo can certainly play some solid tennis, but those are not players that come to mind when you think about the semi-finals of a major. In many ways, it seems like Zverev has a free run to the semi-finals.
It’s going to be more complicated than that, of course, because he does tend to complicate things on occasion. But he’s by far the strongest player in this quarter and by far has the most experience. Those sorts of things matter when it’s 5-5 in the fifth set of a major.
It’s up to the German to prove that he’s finally gotten to that level, but this quarter compared to that of Djokovic looks rather tame. Nick Kyrgios return is that one x-factor who could blow up this quarter, but there are rumors of him having picked up some injury.
Time will tell whether he is truly fit, but even if he is, he hasn’t played that much and certainly hasn’t looked spectacular. At his peak, though, it could have been rather interesting.
First round matches to watch:
- Nick Kyrgios vs Jacob Fearnley
- Tommy Paul vs Christopher O’Connell
Australian Open predictions: The final weekend
Come the final weekend of the Australian Open, we’re predicting Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals, with the winners playing for the title.
In semi-final one, we predict Sinner to largely do what he did last year against Medvedev. We’ve seen this matchup unfold a couple of times now, and for the most part, Sinner has really dominated without too many problems. It’s rather simple; he is utterly deadly from the baseline, which is what you need to be when playing against Medvedev.
The Russian doesn’t have the biggest power from the baseline, so when he finds himself against a player who has the power and can hit the ball well consistently, he’s in big trouble. He’s struggled against both Alcaraz and Sinner, who are similar in that regard.
The only reason things might go wrong for him in that match is if Sinner over-hits, similarly to how he did in the early stages of their final last year. It’s unlikely to happen, as we’ve had a big sample size since then of Sinner simply being robot-like in big moments. That’s why he’ll win again.
In semi-final two, we predict that Zverev will outlast Carlos Alcaraz in an epic four or five-setter. Zverev is a notoriously difficult matchup for Alcaraz because he can sit back at the baseline and simply absorb all that power. Very few players are capable of covering the court as well as Zverev. He is massive, both tall and long, and is rather quick for his size. That allows him to neutralize Alcaraz pretty well, as he doesn’t really make too many mistakes.
Zverev also showed last year that he can play really well in Melbourne, making the semi-final and nearly making the final. There is a pretty good chance that he makes the final this year due to the matchup being favorable for him, and if he does, he’ll have another chance of possibly finally making his dream come true.
Australian Open 2025 semi-finals predictions:
- Jannik Sinner beats Daniil Medvedev
- Alexander Zverev beats Carlos Alcaraz
Should the above occur as we’re predicting, then the 2025 Australian Open final will be Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev.
For anyone betting on the Australian Open, a tournament win for Zverev pays 11.00 | +1000 while a winner bet on Sinner gives only 2.38 | +137.5.
A final between Sinner and Zverev would be rather epic. There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, it’s a stylistically interesting matchup. A cyborg-like baseliner in Sinner who doesn’t make too many mistakes and a defensive juggernaut who can absorb all that power almost as well as anybody. Both also have really good serves, especially Zverev, making the matchup even tighter than it is.
Finally, there are the stakes. Sinner could win his third major, which would be a huge coup, while Zverev obviously hasn’t won a single one, so for him, it would be a dream come true. Both of them would have to win a couple of tricky matches to find themselves in the final, but it’s not inconceivable at all. Sinner has a cakewalk draw in relation to how good he is, and Zverev has arguably the weakest quarter out of any major seed.
Let’s conclude this with what might happen in that final. Well, considering how good Sinner has been for a very long time now and considering that it’s nearly impossible to counter him from the baseline even if you’re as good as Zverev, there is simply a very high likelihood that the Italian will defend his trophy. Can anyone challenge Sinner in Grand Slams?
The Australian Open court suits him as well as any. He has done it here and he has the better weapons compared to Zverev, who is still not as confident playing that attacking style of tennis that wins you majors these days. If this was played on clay, then his chances would be pretty good, but in Melbourne, they’re not that great.
Australian Open winner prediction: Jannik Sinner.
