The new WTA season is upon us, and with that the first Grand Slam, so it’s time to look at the women’s Australian Open draw closely. Read on as we analyze the WTA draw quarter-by-quarter, highlight key matchups, and predict how it’s all going to unfold over the next fortnight in Melbourne.
Read also: Next WTA breakout player in 2025?
Women’s Australian Open draw: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Quarter one
- Aryna Sabalenka (1)
- Qinwen Zheng (5)
- Diana Shnaider (12)
- Mirra Andreeva (14)
- Donna Vekic (18)
- Magdalena Frech (23)
- Linda Noskova (29)
Likely quarter-final: Sabalenka beats Zheng
The first quarter features the world number one Aryna Sabalenka, who also happens to be the defending champion. Not only did she win last year, but she’s a two-time defending champion, and is looking to become the first woman since 1999 to win three in a row down under. That makes her one of the favorites to win the event, and there don’t seem to be many players capable of stopping her.
Mirra Andreeva is an interesting name in her quarter, but she’s unlikely to beat Sabalenka on those courts as she just lost to her in Brisbane. Then there is Diana Shnaider, who is also a capable player, but again, not really on a level where Sabalenka would feel threatened.
Qinwen Zheng is the best player in her quarter who could do some damage. Her matchup with Sabalenka hasn’t been good in the past, however, as Zheng lost some big matches badly. We expect they will meet in the quarter-final this year, with Zheng falling short once again.
First round matches to watch:
- Qinwen Zheng vs Anca Todoni
- Mirra Andreeva vs Marie Bouzkova
Quarter two
- Coco Gauff (3)
- Jessica Pegula (7)
- Jelena Ostapenko (16)
- Marta Kostyuk (17)
- Karolina Muchova (20)
- Paula Badosa (26)
- Leylah Fernandez (30)
Likely quarter-final: Coco Gauff beats Paula Badosa
This quarter is a rather interesting one because it has Coco Gauff in it, a player who many fancy to go all the way in Melbourne. Gauff finished last year in spectacular fashion by winning the WTA Finals, and she didn’t start badly in the new year either with a straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek.
Australia has been an odd place for her though. She has had the occasional good performance but also some lackluster showings, especially against better and more aggressive players. Her quarter has a few landmines, so to speak. Jelena Ostapenko is just the player that could beat her when she’s truly playing great – and she has a tendency to do that at the start of the season.
Karolina Muchova is never an easy player to beat with all of her tricks and a powerful serve, which will be a major weapon on the fast courts of Melbourne. Jessica Pegula also knows Gauff pretty well and has beaten her before. The same goes for Paula Badosa.
Overall, it’s a very tough quarter for Gauff, who in the end should still be able to get out of it and face Sabalenka in the semi-finals.
First round matches to watch:
- Jessica Pegula vs Maya Joint
- Belinda Bencic vs Jelena Ostapenko
Quarter three
- Jasmina Paolini (4)
- Elena Rybakina (6)
- Danielle Collins (10)
- Madison Keys (19)
- Katie Boulter (22)
- Elina Svitolina (28)
- Dayana Yastremska (32)
Likely quarter-final: Elena Rybakina beats Katie Boulter
This quarter is a pretty interesting one in the sense that anything can really happen. Elena Rybakina is the top player from this group, regardless of Paolini being the higher seed. What makes this section interesting is that any of these players could technically win it.
Paolini could easily come out of this quarter to advance to the semi-final. So could Danielle Collins, who, mind you, played a final here. Madison Keys is impossible to beat on her best day, which is the same for Rybakina. Dayana Yastremska won’t be easy to beat, and Katie Boulter is very likely to have a good showing this year.
Anything can happen, though Rybakina is still the most likely player to actually win this quarter if she plays close to her best tennis.
First round matches to watch:
- Daria Snigur vs Danielle Collins
- Elina Svitolina vs Sorana Cirstea
Quarter four
- Iga Swiatek (2)
- Emma Navarro (8)
- Daria Kasatkina (9)
- Anna Kalinskaya (13)
- Victoria Azarenka (21)
- Yulia Putintseva (24)
- Maria Sakkari (31)
Likely quarter-final: Iga Swiatek beats Daria Kasatkina
This is Swiatek’s quarter, and we have to note that it’s not that impressive of a quarter. Sure, there are good and experienced players there, but most of these players haven’t really started 2025 that well.
Emma Navarro might be the highest seed outside of the Polish star, but she has looked pretty poor so far in Australia. Yulia Putintseva is not a player that can trouble Swiatek all too much, and neither is Victoria Azarenka at this stage of her career.
Daria Kasatkina is an interesting player with a very defensive playstyle that technically could do some damage against ?wi?tek. She could force her into some long rallies, trying to bait errors, but overall it shouldn’t be that hard for Swiatek to win that match.
Anna Kalinskaya is the one player who, at her best, could really give Iga lots of trouble. Her form is mercurial though, so she shouldn’t be that massive of a problem for Swiatek to go through.
First round matches to watch:
- Emma Raducanu vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
- Anna Kalinina vs Ons Jabeur
Women’s Australian Open predictions: The final weekend
Come the final weekend of the Australian Open, we’re predicting Coco Gauff vs Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina in the semi-finals, with the winners playing for the title.
In the first semi-final, we predict that Gauff will defeat Sabalenka. There are a few reasons why.
First of all, Gauff has looked a lot better as a player lately. We must look at the WTA Finals where she played amazing tennis to actually win the event. She bested Sabalenka at that event among many others.
Then, we need to consider how she’s played this year—she’s been playing really well. She even defeated Swiatek, already proving that, and helped her US team win the United Cup. Another big factor is the matchup in general, which tends to favor Gauff in many ways.
If you look at the US Open final where Gauff won against Sabalenka, you could see a player in Sabalenka who didn’t know what to do. Gauff was on every ball, and with the consistency of hitting that the American has found in recent times, it’s even more likely to happen this time around.
Overall, it’s just a matchup that seems to favor Gauff, especially with the rise of her form lately. Sabalenka herself has looked okay but nothing spectacular in recent times.
In the second semi-final, we predict Swiatek to beat Rybakina.
It’s a matchup we’ve seen a couple of times already, and for the most part, it was pretty competitive. Swiatek is largely seen as the better player and she showed it twice already this year.
They first played at the World Tennis League in Abu Dhabi where Swiatek won that match easily, though it was only one set. She then bested her at the United Cup as well, and it’s generally been a matchup that has favored Swiatek in the past.
They have played some smashing matches in the past, but against the hitting consistency of Swiatek, which is greater than that of Rybakina, she generally wins these matchups. The serve of Rybakina can also be rather inconsistent, which is just one of the many reasons why Iga is more likely to win the match.
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Australian Open semi-finals predictions:
- Coco Gauff beats Aryna Sabalenka
- Iga Swiatek beats Elena Rybakina
Should the above occur as we’re predicting, then the 2025 Australian Open final will be Coco Gauff vs Iga Swiatek.
Historically, Swiatek has dominated the matchup with Gauff, but lately, the fortunes have shifted a little. Gauff bested her both at the WTA Finals and recently at the United Cup, and generally, she has been able to play equally with the Pole.
The problem for Gauff in the past was that Swiatek was simply the better hitter. In a direct matchup where they would have to trade blows from the baseline, the American player simply had no shot. She didn’t have the weapons as the forehand was pretty lackluster, though the backhand was solid. She also allowed far too much on the serve.
All of this has changed recently as Gauff has become more steady with her serve. She also has developed her weapons a little bit and generally she’s just been really good from the baseline in recent times. It might be surprising to some, but she’s figured it out. Last year at the US Open, it seemed like she wouldn’t be able to get it done, but she did.
That shifted the matchup on its head completely, and it’s why we think that she will be able to get it done once more. She simply realised how to play to her strengths and has also figured out how to play against Iga Swiatek.
In many ways, the frustration that Gauff used to feel when facing the Polish player is now felt by Swiatek. It’s just a nightmare matchup, and she won’t have the comfort of clay to fall back on.
Women’s Australian Open winner prediction: Coco Gauff
