Men’s Australian Open: Quarter-finals and Final Weekend Predictions

Written by: Bren Gray | January 20, 2025
australian open

The 2025 Australian Open men’s quarter-finals are set, and with some blockbusting matches to come over the final days of the tournament. The event went, for the most part, as many expected it to, but there were also some massive surprises in the first 10 days. Read on as we go over some of the highlights so far, plus share some predictions for how the rest of the Australian Open will unfold.

Australian Open summary

Just Tommy Paul, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego, Alex de Minaur, and Jannik Sinner remain in the men’s draw. But how did this come to be? Read some of the big storylines that happened at this year’s event or jump directly to our quarter final predictions.

Djokovic not done yet

Djokovic is through to the quarter-finals in Melbourne. It’s not a massive surprise, but the manner in which he did it is quite notable. 

The Serbian dominated some very good players like Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka. Neither gave him any problems, which is a bit surprising. Neither played all too well either, so he wasn’t really tested, but it seems like the 24-time Grand Slam champion is not done yet. Whether he can actually win events on the biggest stage against the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner will become apparent very soon.

Teens coming through

A couple of teenagers stood out early at the Australian Open. Nishesh Basavareddy was on top of Djokovic for about a set, a very good sign for the 19-year-old who was playing his first Grand Slam.

Learner Tien possibly impressed even more with his aggressive play that left Daniil Medvedev stunned. The Russian had no solutions for the American teenager and exited very early after making the final last year.

Joao Fonseca was another teenager that beat a seed, as Andrey Rublev looked powerless against the Brazilian rising star.

The original next-gen struggling

A couple of players that constitute the original next-gen have continued to struggle. Players like Medvedev, Rublev, Fritz, and Tsitsipas once again fail to impress. All of them ran into inspired players who ended their run prematurely at the Australian Open, which is beginning to become a trend.

With younger superstars like Basavareddy, Fonseca, Tien, and others coming through, it puts players like Rublev and Tsitsipas in an interesting spot. They keep failing on the biggest stage, and sooner or later, they could be replaced similarly to how players like Alcaraz and Sinner also replaced them in the pecking order.

Melbourne has still got it

The Australian Open has a unique position in the calendar as it begins literally two weeks into the season. That ensures that some pretty funky things happen at the event each year, and this year hasn’t any different. We had some big names get beaten early, and we also had some stars do what they’re expected to.

All top four favourites for the event are through to the quarter-final, as is dark horse number one Alex de Minaur, so in that sense, the event once again delivered its unique blend of unpredictability and predictability, making it a rather fantastic experience for all tennis fans.

Men’s Australian Open quarter-finals preview

Looking ahead to the second week, four quarter-final matchups await that promise some top-level action in Melbourne. Read on for our Australian Open men’s quarter-finals predictions.

Check out our recommended betting sites if you wish to place a bet on the matches.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

Why not start with a proper bang as we have Djokovic taking on Alcaraz in by far the biggest clash of the quarter-finals this week. It’s a supernova of a match, being both unpredictable and fascinating. 

Alcaraz has traditionally struggled at the Australian Open, failing to make the semi-final so far in his career. Djokovic, on the other hand, has been the best-performing player at the event in its history. He has won it 10 times so far, and winning his iconic 25th Grand Slam here would be fairy-tale-like. He probably wouldn’t do it at any other place; however, to do that, he needs to beat Alcaraz.

Believe it or not, Djokovic has actually done really well against Alcaraz lately. He bested him in three of the last four matches they played against each other, which is rather impressive. In that sense, he’ll have some chances in this one as well.

Sure, Alcaraz will be favored for a couple of reasons, and he’s been strong so far in Melbourne. The Spaniard has never played as well as he’s played this year at the Australian Open, but Djokovic has also been sharp over the last 10 days. In fact, he’s made both Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka look really amateurish when they faced him.

Funny enough, both players have had a tremendous start to the year, playing some of the best tennis they’ve ever played, so overall it’s going to be quite interesting. The match will be played at night, which should slow things down a little bit, and that might actually favor Alcaraz more than Djokovic, especially if he can hit the ball consistently from the baseline.

The match will come down to this: Will Alcaraz be able to hit through Djokovic similar to how Sinner does it without imploding before that? If he can, he will win and ruin the dreams of many Djokovic fans.

Prediction: Alcaraz in four.

alcaraz

Tommy Paul vs Alexander Zverev

On the face of it, this one seems like a matchup that Zverev should win easily. He’s the better player overall, he plays better from the baseline, and he’s got the better and more consistent serve. 

So what could go wrong here? Well, there is the tiny tidbit that he’s played Paul twice so far and lost to him both times. Matchups do matter in tennis quite a bit, and some players simply don’t fit other players at all. That might be the case in this matchup, and there are some logical reasons as to why Zverev might struggle with Paul.

The American plays a certain way. He’s hyper-aggressive, smacks the ball hard from the baseline without any regard for humanity, and when it works, it’s devastating. When it doesn’t, it looks pretty horrible. Here’s the thing: so far this year, it’s been working really well at the Australian Open. 

Paul has been destroying opponents without too many problems, and that’s a problem for Zverev. He’s known to be quite vulnerable against this type of player in the past. Fritz plays similarly to Paul but with more control, and Zverev lost to him at the US Open last year.

The Australian Open is similarly quick in terms of conditions, and it just works for players that play as brutally as Paul plays. That style matchup is what likely gave Zverev massive problems the first two times they played against each other. He’s a far better player now than when those matches happened, but it doesn’t mean that the problematic nature of the matchup has gone away.

It should be quite interesting because it’s a massive test for Zverev. He failed in a similar spot at the US Open a couple of months ago, and he also failed at the Australian Open last year when he fell short against Medvedev, even though many expected him to win. 

He seems to be cruising well enough through his matches so far, so there is a decent chance that he does end up getting it done, but Paul won’t be without chances. It’s just another matchup where anything can happen.

Prediction: Zverev in five.

Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego

This one is by far the most unexpected quarter-final of the tournament, because nobody had these players on the radar. Sure, Shelton has done tremendously well at the Australian Open in the past. The conditions work great for his massive serve. He is also super aggressive from the baseline, and that works well too. 

Sonego found himself here thanks to largely playing really well but also the draw clearing up wonderfully for him. He’s always been a streaky player who, on his hot streaks, can do amazing stuff because he just has that game. The serve can be incredible depending on whether the Haley’s Comet comes around that year, but also his baseline play is brilliant when he’s at his best. 

The Italian has been playing close to his best this year, and he’s through to the quarter-finals. It’s not really undeserving because he’s really played great and had a bit of luck with the draw. Now comes the big test if this is legit from Sonego, because Shelton won’t make it easy for him. It’s a massive test for Shelton as well as he will be thoroughly tested from the baseline. 

The baseline play is the huge question mark for Shelton. At times he can be too erratic and go for too much. Sonego will push him around a little bit because he has the power to do so, and if the consistency isn’t up where it needs to be, the American could lose. They played two times so far, and Shelton won on home soil in Cincinnati in 2022. Sonego won their only Grand Slam matchup at the 2023 Roland Garros.

Prediction: Shelton in four.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur

This is another massive matchup because of the simple fact that it’s an Aussie playing. That in itself should get the Australian crowd involved in the match, and add in the fact that there is no shortage of Italians in Australia, you got a crowd battle in the stands. On the courts, we’ll have a proper battle because Sinner has been playing superb tennis but so is de Minaur.

That’s hardly a surprise and was largely expected from both but now comes the tough test of beating the other. De Minaur himself has been playing what could be easily considered some of the best tennis he has ever played. He looks good and he looks inspired, and he will certainly back his chances in this match.

Sinner has the upper hand because he’s the better ball striker and plays better from the baseline, but de Minaur can run for days. If he can keep the ball in play, then he will have chances to possibly bait many errors out of the Italian, which could help him win the match.

Sinner also has some physical worries going on in the background. He has played his cards close to his chest, but had to take a medical timeout during his fourth-round match. That could be a storyline which might impact the outcome of the match, even though it didn’t end up impacting the result against Holger Rune.

The head-to-head doesn’t favour de Minaur at all, with the Australian losing all nine of their meetings so far. Most of those matches happened quite recently as well, with three happening last year. Sinner won all three of those matches in straight sets, and in fact, in the nine matches they played, he only dropped one set, which is just brutal. 

He has dominated de Minaur easily, and it’s not a major surprise because this matchup will also be played on the baseline. Sinner is far superior from the baseline, having more power in his shots. He’s also naturally the more attacking player, which just skews the matchup to his side.

De Minaur doesn’t really have the weapons to seriously trouble Sinner, and the only way to beat him is to try and grind out the points, forcing him to miss. That hasn’t worked in a long time against Sinner as he’s become robot-like in the past year and more, but with the crowd likely to back him more, the Australian will certainly try to do that.

Prediction: Sinner in three (but if he’s not fit, then de Minaur in four)

de minaur at the 2024 australian open
Australia’s Alex de Minaur

Australian Open final weekend predictions

Without diving too deep into hypothetical matches, here’s how we see the semi-finals of the men’s Australian Open playing out:

  • Alcaraz beats Zverev in three
  • Sinner beats Shelton in four

We’re picking Alcaraz to get his revenge over Zverev. This one is a little bit of a gut pick – it simply feels like the Spaniard is on the cusp of catching fire, ala summer of 2024. He’s playing excellent tennis down under, and buoyed by a psychologically boosting win over Djokovic, should race past Zverev.

Sinner will have his hands full against Shelton, who is a big match player. While we don’t think Shelton quite has it in him to get over the line against the world No 1, we certainly expect he will make it a good contest and take a set, particularly if Sinner has a physical concern.

With the final that many picked pre-tournament, here’s our prediction for the men’s Australian Open final:

  • Alcaraz beats Sinner in four

We’re two layers deep into a hypothetical situation here, so will save the deep analysis for closer to the match should it eventuate. However, we’re tipping Alcaraz to continue his domination of the rivalry against Sinner, and become the youngest-ever player to complete the career Grand Slam.

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Bren Gray

Bren has a lot of experience writing on various tennis related topics and will give us interesting news surrounding matches on the ATP and WTA tour as well as predictions and reviews.