The Canadian Open in Toronto heats up with a second-round clash on Tuesday, July 29, as home favorite and No. 22 seed Denis Shapovalov takes on American rising star Learner Tien on Centre Court. Shapovalov is expected to challenge for the title here at home, among many betting on the Canadian Open, and he needs a solid start. Here’s a quick look at their form, head-to-head and our predictions.
Shapovalov vs Tien
Denis Shapovalov (World No. 29) is in top form, fresh off a dominant Los Cabos title run in July, where he beat Aleksandar Kovacevic in straight sets in the final, losing just 18 games across four matches. With a 19-14 record in 2025, including a Dallas ATP 500 title, the Canadian’s big serve and lefty game are now clicking, with 236 aces and a 72% first-serve win rate this season. He earned a first-round bye in Toronto. Read more about Shapovalov’s racquet.
Learner Tien (World No. 61) is riding momentum after a strong 2025, posting a 21-18 record with a fourth-round run at the Australian Open and a Washington quarterfinal. In Toronto, he beat compatriot Colton Smith 6-4, 7-5 in the first round. His 14-7 hard-court record and precise, consistent play make him a threat and he’s playing great tennis at the moment.
Head-to-Head
Shapovalov and Tien have never met, making this a fresh matchup. Shapovalov’s records on hard-courts gives him an edge, while Tien’s lack of experience against top-30 players on big stages could be a factor.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Shapovalov -182 (1.55) | Tien +150 (2.50)
- Game Spread: Shapovalov -2.5 (-125/1.79) | Tien +2.5 (-105/1.95)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-120/1.83) | Under 22.5 (-110/1.91)
Predictions and Best Bets
Shapovalov’s title-winning form and home advantage make him the clear favorite and this an event he might go deep. Tien’s consistency and movement could keep it competitive and he will be looking for longer rallies. We’ve seen high levels from the youngster recently even though he has to cut down on his double faults.
The Canadian’s serve and power, and not at least experience, should seal it in straight sets, though Tien might push a set close.
Prediction: Shapovalov wins in two sets.
Best Bet: Shapovalov -2.5 games
