The 2025 ATP Finals begin this Sunday, November 9, with the eight best players of the season fighting it out for one last time. Viewed as the biggest title of the year outside of the Grand Slams, there are 1,500 ranking points and the better part of $5 million on the line in Turin. Here’s our preview of the event, complete with ATP Finals odds and betting tips.
These are the singles groups confirmed following Djokovic withdrawal:
SINGLES
Jimmy Connors Group
Carlos Alcaraz
Taylor Fritz
Alex de Minaur
Lorenzo Musetti
Bjorn Borg Group
Jannik Sinner
Alexander Zverev
Ben Shelton
Auger-Aliassime
2025 ATP Finals odds
Tennis betting sites have been reluctant to release odds for the ATP Finals early. We’ll update correct odds shortly.
These questions aside, we can reasonably estimate what the outright betting odds will be. Here’s how we think the ATP Finals odds will look:
- Jannik Sinner – 1.67 (-150)
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2.20 (+120)
- Alexander Zverev – 8.00 (+700)
- Taylor Fritz – 15.00 (+1400)
- Alex de Minaur – 21.00 (+2000)
- Ben Shelton – 26.00 (+2500)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime – 26.00 (+2500)
Sinner and Alcaraz will still be well ahead of the rest of the pack, however, with the Italian’s indoor record and current form giving him a lead over Alcaraz.
Fritz, de Minaur, Shelton and Auger-Aliassime will all be on much longer odds. The former American has the best shot of making a deep run based on his consistency this year, but the real value here may well be Auger-Aliassime should he qualify, particularly if he’s priced at 26.00 (+2500) or longer.
ATP Finals player-by-player preview
Before we dive into our betting tips for this year’s ATP Finals, here’s a quick run down of each player’s credentials.
Carlos Alcaraz
- Best result: 2023 semi-finals
- Last year: Group stage
Arrives in Turin as world No 1, having briefly lost top spot to Sinner after an early defeat at the Paris Masters. Prior to that loss against Cam Norrie, Alcaraz had made the final or better of his last nine events dating back to the Monte Carlo Masters. He has historically struggled at this time of year though, and indoor hardcourt is his least successful surface.
Jannik Sinner
- Best result: 2025 champion
- Last year: Won
Sinner still has a shot at ending the year No 1 if he performs at the ATP Finals. He’s certainly done so in the past, winning last year’s title without dropping a set. The fast, controlled indoor conditions are where he plays his best, as evidenced by his 26-match win streak on the surface and back-to-back titles in Vienna and Paris. Playing in front of a home crowd in Italy is just the cherry on top.
Novak Djokovic
- Best result: Seven-time champion
- Last year: Did not play
Djokovic has been the clear third-best player in 2025, losing just four times since mid-May. Three of those losses were to Sinner or Alcaraz. While beating the New Two has been a bridge too far for the physically hampered 38-year-old this season, the serve-friendly conditions and best-of-three format do play in his favour. If he opts to play the ATP Finals, it will be with a clear objective: claw back a win over his two rivals.
Alexander Zverev
- Best result: Two-time champion
- Last year: Semi-finalist
With his big, consistent serve, indoors is technically one of Zverev’s best surfaces. However, with 77 matches under his belt in 2025, the German is looking beat up off the back of an underwhelming year that produced just one title. Unless he’s managed to repair his body drastically since his 6-0, 6-1 loss to Sinner last week, don’t expect much from Zverev in Turin.
Taylor Fritz
- Best result: 2025 final
- Last year: Finalist
Fritz is a strong contender to go deep at the ATP Finals in 2025. The American was in red-hot form from June to September, claiming two titles and accruing a 32-8 record that included wins over Alcaraz and Zverev. He’s cooled off a little in the last month with second-match exits in Shanghai, Basel and Paris, but that could be just the reset Fritz needs. Don’t write last year’s finalist off.
Alex de Minaur
- Best result: 2024 group stage
- Last year: Group stage
This is De Minaur’s second straight year qualifying for the ATP Finals, having made his debut at the event in 2024. He went 0-3 in the group stage then, and it’s hard to see a world where that doesn’t happen again. The Aussie is a consistent force against non-elite players, but lacks the firepower to succeed in these conditions.
Ben Shelton
- Best result: NA
- Last year: Did not qualify
It’s been a breakthrough season for Shelton, who makes the year-end finals for the first time in his career. The American has been excellent when fully fit, winning his maiden Masters 1000 title and making the semi-finals of the Australian Open. However, his fitness is a concern, with just six matches played since injury forced him out of the US Open. Given his reliance on momentum, little can be expected from the 23-year-old here.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
- Best result: 2022 group stage
- Last year: Did not qualify
Since August, Auger-Aliassime has been a sensation. The former world No 6 has notched a 22-5 record since the Canadian Masters, bagging a title in Brussels, making the US Open semi-finals and the Paris final. Seven of his eight titles have come indoors, and he has the most wins on the surface since 2020. Crucially, he’s played Sinner tight twice in the past few months, and is one of the few men on Tour who could take the Italian down in the right conditions.
Early betting tips for 2025 ATP Finals
Now that you know what to expect from each player, here are our betting tips for the 2025 ATP Finals:
Sinner will defend his title
There’s nothing particularly groundbreaking about tipping Sinner to win, but there’s still value to be had. The case for the Italian is rock-solid, and more so when you look at his competition.
Sinner is well-rested, given he had three months off earlier in the season to serve his drug suspension. That means that while others are running on fumes – both Alcaraz and Zverev have been vocal about how fatigued they are – Sinner still feels like it’s August.
Combine this with his incredible indoor track record, and it’s just tough to beat against Sinner. The only realistic competition he has is Alcaraz, who hasn’t even made the final here before. Sinner will be at short odds to win, but it’s a bet worth taking. More on Sinner’s racquet.
Auger-Aliassime will make the semi-finals
A punt that will be delivering much longer odds is for Auger-Aliassime to make it out of the group stage. The Canadian has been drawn with Sinner, Zverev and Shelton (assuming he qualifies). With his razor-sharp form, plus a good week of rest heading into Turin, we like Auger-Aliassime’s chances of making it past Zverev and Shelton, who both have physical question marks.
For an even stronger return, back Auger-Aliassime to make it through to the final. He’d likely face Djokovic or Alcaraz in the semi-finals–one of which could be physically compromised, the other of which would have secured world No 1 and be at the end of a long season.
Bublik gets a match – and a win!
Almost every player competing in Turin has had overt physical issues over the past month. With how long the tennis season is, it would be no surprise whatsoever if both alternates – likely Musetti and Alexander Bublik – get a match at the ATP Finals.
Should Bublik make it on court, expect the Kazakh to pull off a trademark upset over one of the big names and secure himself a spot in the year-end top 10 to round out his best-ever season.
Who will win?
