Today we have more great matches to look forward to in Cincy and we gonna cover two of the with some stats and predictions, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Benjamin Bonzi and Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Sonego.
Fritz vs Sonego
Taylor Fritz (World No. 4) is in top form, showing a 37-14 record in 2025, including Stuttgart and Eastbourne titles and a Wimbledon semifinal. In Cincinnati, he beat qualifier Emilio Nava 6-4, 6-4 in the second round after a first-round bye, firing 12 aces and winning 81% of first-serve points. His 20-7 hard-court record, with semifinals in Miami and Toronto, makes him a clear favorite here on home soil.
Lorenzo Sonego (World No. 36) has struggled for consistency, with a 16-19 season record. He reached the Australian Open quarterfinals but lost early in 15 of 19 events. In Cincinnati, he beat Zizou Bergs 6-3, 7-6(4) in the second round after a bye, hitting 36 winners.
Head-to-Head
Fritz leads 6-2, including a 7-6(2), 6-3 win at the 2025 Miami Open on hard courts. He’s undefeated against Sonego on hard courts (3-0), with all wins in straight sets, giving him a clear edge. Sonego’s two victories came on clay.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Fritz -625 (1.16) | Sonego +400 (5.00)
- Game Spread: Fritz -3.5 (-190/1.53) | Sonego +3.5 (+130/2.30)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-105/1.95) | Under 22.5 (-140/1.71)
Predictions for Fritz v Sonego
Fritz’s hard-court dominance and head-to-head edge make him the clear favorite at the tennis bookies, basically he’s in better form and should see this off in two sets. Sonego’s inconsistency makes him a bit unpredictable but I think he would have a better chance on a slower surface.
Prediction: Fritz wins in two sets.
Tsitsipas vs Bonzi
Stefanos Tsitsipas (World No. 29 and past Cincinnati Open finalist) is showing signs of a comeback following a tough period, beating Fabian Marozsan 7-6(3), 6-2 in the second round, hitting nine aces and winning 75% of first-serve points. His season has of course been too inconsistent, also with coaching issues, but we might see a decent run from the Greek here.
Benjamin Bonzi (World No. 63) is riding a wave of upsets, stunning No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(4) in the second round after beating Matteo Arnaldi 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4. His 17-19 season record includes an 11-9 hard-court mark, with 15 aces and 43 winners against Musetti showing his aggressive form, though five service breaks in that match raise concerns. Read more about Bonzi and his racquet.
Head-to-Head
Tsitsipas leads 3-0, with wins at 2022 Halle (7-6(1), 1-6, 6-3), 2022 Mallorca (6-4, 6-4), and 2023 Monte-Carlo (4-1, ret.), though none on hard courts.
Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Tsitsipas -222 (1.45) | Bonzi +187.5 (2.85)
- Game Spread: Tsitsipas -2.5 (-137.5/1.73) | Bonzi +2.5 (+100/2.00)
- Total Games: Over 22.5 (-130/1.77) | Under 22.5 (-102/1.98)
Predictions and Best Bet
Tsitsipas looked solid in the first match here in Cincy and even his sometimes weak backhand was much improved. He has a clear edge in their H2H and should come out the winner here. But we expect a tough match against an in-form Bonzi that is unpredictable and has a good highest-level, and will like his chances on these hard-courts.
Prediction: Tsitsipas wins in three sets.
Best Bet: Over 22.5 total games.
