Looking to bet on tennis this week? Then you’re in luck, as there’s a feast of action at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California over the coming 12 days. I break down all the latest bookmaker odds and outline my dark horses and value bets for the women’s event below.
Looking to bet on the men’s event?
BNP Paribas Open WTA odds and favorites
Most sportsbooks have released their odds for the Indian Wells WTA 1000, with the following players leading outright betting:
Women’s 2026 Indian Wells betting odds
- Aryna Sabalenka – 3.75 (+275)
- Elena Rybakina – 6.00 (+500)
- Iga Swiatek – 7.00 (+600)
- Jessica Pegula – 11.00 (+1000)
- Coco Gauff – 13.00 (+1200)
- Karolina Muchova – 17.00 (+1600)
- Amanda Anisimova – 17.00 (+1600)
- Mirra Andreeva – 19.00 (+1800)
- Victoria Mboko – 23.00 (+2200)
- Elina Svitolina – 26.00 (+2500)
By and large, I agree with the bookies’ odds for the WTA Indian Wells here. Sabalenka is the clear favorite with Rybakina her closest challenger. Swiatek is given reasonably generous odds considering her form of late, but she has won here twice, so 7.00 (+600) is fair enough.
I’d perhaps have Pegula a shade higher up the market here, with the American priced at fourth favorite by most betting sites. This is likely because of her poor record in California, rather than her recent form.
One player that does stand out to me as being over-priced is Anisimova – she’s only 7-6 in Indian Wells over her career and has lost first-round her last three times. Having her at 17.00 (+1600) level with Muchova and above the likes of Andreeva, Mboko and Svitolina feels generous.
You’ll see from my women’s Indian Wells draw preview that I’m high on Svitolina in this spot, so 26.00 (+2500) and 10th favorite is a great price for her.
Top dark horses for WTA Indian Wells 2026
Chasing some juicy returns? Here are the dark horses I’d keep in mind heading into this year’s event:
- Paula Badosa
- Emma Navarro
- Jelena Ostapenko
- Lilli Tagger
Paula Badosa @ 126.00 (+12500)
Badosa is the perfect dark horse at this year’s Indian Wells. The Spaniard is a former world No 2, former Indian Wells champion, and holds a 11-3 lifetime record in the desert. She’s still just 28 years old, so it’s not like these are some obscure stats that no longer apply either.
Thing is, she’s been struggling with injury big time in recent years. She’s only 11-11 in the last 52 weeks, and is 3-5 so far in 2026. This has made bookmakers fade her massively, pricing her at a long 126.00 (+12500).
But I believe if Badosa can remain healthy – and yes, that’s a reasonable “if”, considering she withdrew from Dubai injured last month – she’s still got the game in her to win Indian Wells 2026. As recently as last year, Badosa strung together a healthy stretch and made the Australian Open semi-finals. Looking back a little further, she went 14-3 in the 2024 North American hardcourt swing, winning Washington and making the US Open quarters.
When she can stay on court, she’s just as good as she used to be, and that’s good enough to lift this trophy.
Read more about Paula Badosa’s racquet and gear.
Emma Navarro @ 151.00 (+15000)
Speaking of a player that has been good in the past, Navarro has fallen significantly from her heyday in recent years.
The American is a woeful 26-27 over the last year and has fallen well outside the top 10 now. Still, there are elements of her game that are perfect for the Indian Wells conditions. She’s an absolute warhorse, capable of playing three-hour matches every day of the week. Rallying and grinding down her opponents is Navarro’s game, and that also happens to be the gameplan in Indian Wells.
Two years ago she evidenced this by making a quarter-final run at this event. She’s gone off the boil since, and is definitely short on confidence. Get a few wins under her belt, however, and odds of 151.00 (+15000) for the former world No 8 are looking pretty sharp.
Jelena Ostapenko @ 151.00 (+15000)
Ah yes, Ostapenko as a dark horse – a story older than time itself. The Latvian has made a career for herself being as mercurial as they come, so I’d be remiss to not include her here.
Similar to Navarro, Ostapenko has made one quarter-final run here previously, five years ago in 2021. Since then she’s been poor, losing first round the last two years. However, that’s part-and-parcel of her play style, which is ultra-aggressive, all-or-nothing tennis.
A few times a year, everything clicks for Ostapenko and she eviscerates whoever’s on the other side of the net. We saw a flash of this in Doha last month when she made the final four, but she’s still overdue a searing title run. At 151.00 (+15000), I wouldn’t bet against her.
Lilli Tagger @ 451.00 (+45000)
For those after a true dark horse, introducing Lilli Tagger. This Austrian teenager absolutely melts the ball and has been hitting her straps in recent months.
She’s currently ranked 119, but is playing well above that level (Tennis Abstract has her at an elo of No 67 in the world). This year alone she’s 12-3, having qualified for the Australian Open, won a W100 in Fujairah and made another final in Mumbai. With nine wins in her last 10 matches, she comes to Indian Wells full of confidence with nothing to lose.
Chances are she will lose, but there’s also that slim chance that this is the breakout tournament for her where she grabs the WTA Tour by the scruff of the neck. Unlikely, but bet on it at 451.00 (+45000) and you’ll be laughing all the way to the bank if it comes to fruition.
Betting tips and value bets for Women’s Indian Wells 2026:
Here are a few other value bets for those not so interested in backing a dark horse outright:
- Sabalenka vs Rybakina final @ 6.00 (+500)
Sabalenka and Rybakina are the two clear favorites to win the 2026 WTA BNP Paribas Open, both according to the bookies and my women’s draw analysis for the Indian Wells. Their last two meetings have been in finals, within the last four months as well.
There are strong arguments to be made for either of them winning the title, but with odds of 6.00 (+500) for them to meet in the final, it’s a great way of not having to choose.
- Svitolina to win fourth quarter @ 12.00 (+1100)
I’m high on Svitolina coming into Indian Wells (image on top), for three reasons. Firstly, the Ukrainian is in solid form: she leads the WTA Tour in wins this season (15), and has already collected one title in Auckland, along with a semi-final run in Melbourne and a final appearance in Dubai last month.
Secondly, she’s got plenty of experience here in Indian Wells. Her overall record is nothing to write home about – 19-11 – but last year she made the quarter-finals, and in 2019 she was a semi-finalist.
Finally, and most importantly, I love the section of the draw she’s in. I’ve got big question marks over both Swiatek and Andreeva, given the former’s mercurial form and the latter’s pressure to defend her title this fortnight. I’m tipping Svitolina to capitalize on this and win the fourth quarter.
- Sloane Stephens to beat Camila Osorio @ 3.75 (+275)
Stephens has still got game. She may well be down at No 780 currently, but she’s a Grand Slam champion and former world No 3. Her court time has been pretty limited this year, though she did do well to navigate Australian Open qualifying before falling in her opener.
Simply put, I don’t think world No 61 Osorio should be priced so short. She’s a heavy favorite off the back of some strong form in late January/early February – an ITF title and a run to the round of 16 in Doha – but I still don’t think that justifies such a distorted price.
Well rested and in front of a home crowd, I’ll take the big-hitting Stephens any day of the week at 3.75 (+275).
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Nice to see you have Tagger as a dark horse. She’s dominating Gracheva right now at IW.