The Asian swing begins its conclusion this Wednesday with the Shanghai Masters in China. The best-of-the-best on the ATP Tour – well, most of them – will fight it out over the next 12 days for the penultimate Masters 1000 crown of the season. Check out also our draw analysis for the 2025 ATP Shanghai.
With news that top seed Carlos Alcaraz has withdrawn on the eve of the tournament due to injury, the draw is rife with value betting opportunities. Read on as we breakdown the best bets to consider, with a 12.00 (+1100) on a dark horse to make the final, and a bold bet against Jannik Sinner.
ATP Shanghai Odds and Favorites
Bookies took their time getting their outright odds for the Shanghai Masters live, and for good reason. Here’s how the market sits now, after would-have-been title favorite Alcaraz’s withdrawal:
Men’s 2025 Shanghai Masters Betting Odds
- Jannik Sinner @ 1.80 (-125)
- Novak Djokovic @ 9.50 (+850)
- Alexander Zverev @ 9.50 (+850)
- Taylor Fritz @ 13.00 (+1200)
- Alex de Minaur @ 15.00 (+1400)
- Ben Shelton @ 21.00 (+2000)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 29.00 (+2800)
Sinner sits leagues ahead of the rest of the field on short odds of 1.80 (-125) to win the Shanghai Masters. Behind him, there’s a big drop before the next best contenders – Djokovic and Zverev – on 9.50 (+850). Each have their own question marks coming into this tournament, as does fourth-favorite Fritz, who picked up a thigh injury in the Tokyo final but is still priced at 13.00 (+1200). De Minaur – yet to win a Masters title – rounds out the top-five favorites, before odds lengthen even further for Shelton and Auger-Aliassime.
Top Dark Horses for ATP Shanghai 2025
With a 96-man draw, and incredibly short odds for Sinner to win, this Shanghai draw is oozing with dark horses. Here are some that we like this week:
- Alexander Bublik
- Andrey Rublev
- Gabriel Diallo
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Alexander Bublik @ 81.00 (+4000)
A week or two ago, Bublik was being priced far shorter to win tournaments. The Kazakh had picked up three titles in four events, and was the hottest thing outside of Sinner and Alcaraz on Tour.
Since then, hype around the mercurial 28-year-old has cooled off. This is in large part due to an early loss he took in Beijing to qualifier Adrian Mannarino, where he looked borderline disinterested as he won just five games.
Still, Bublik has produced some brilliance in recent months, and is the only player not named Alcaraz to beat Sinner in the past 14 months. That counts for something, and with a price of 81.00 (+8000), a bet on the year’s second-highest title winner is certainly tempting.
Andrey Rublev @ 101.00 (+10000)
Backing Rublev is a bit of a tougher ask in Shanghai, given the Russian’s form. The former world No 5 is riding a three-match losing streak dating back to the US Open, with first-match losses in both of his Asian tournaments so far.
There’s no denying Rublev’s caliber, however. He’s been a mainstay of the top-10 for much of the last decade, accrued wins over each of the Big Three and New Two, and claimed 17 titles along the way. Little is wrong with his game physically or technically, so with a price of 101.00 (+10000), there’s value to be had here.
Gabriel Diallo / Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 251.00 (+25000)
Not to lump the big servers in together, but the argument for Diallo and Mpetshi Perricard follows a similar vein of thought:
1) The DecoTurf used in Shanghai is some of the fastest on Tour.
2) There’s some bad weather expected over the next 12 days, which could see matches played under the roof.
3) Both of these players have the propensity to run hot in these conditions.
It’s a longshot, but given they already have three titles between them in the past two seasons, odds of 251.00 (+25000) may be worth a small bet.
Betting Tips and Value Bets for Shanghai Masters 2025
If any of the dark horses above don’t tickle your fancy, then here are three other sharp value bets we’ve identified at the Shanghai Masters:
- First Quarter Winner – De Minaur @ 3.25 (+225)
De Minaur is the biggest winner of Alcaraz’s withdrawal, and is now the top seed in quarter one of the Shanghai draw. However, bookies are still skeptical of his chances, and have priced him at a reasonably long 3.25 (+225) to win the quarter.
These odds are a steal, as the Aussie is in sharp form and has plenty to play for this week. He currently sits seventh in the Race to Turin. Make a deep run in Shanghai, and he’ll begin to pull away from the cluttered group of players sitting 8th through 20th.
He comes to Shanghai off the back of a semi-final run in Beijing – where he pushed Sinner to a deciding set – and a strong Laver Cup performance that saw him win both singles ties.
- Auger-Aliassime to Make the Final @ 12.00 (+1100)
We expounded the value of backing Auger-Aliassime this week in our draw analysis, and are doubling down now with a bet on him to make the final.
With no Alcaraz in the top of the draw, and Zverev/Musetti both carrying injuries, betting on an underdog to make the final is the best angle. Auger-Aliassime fits that label. He’s priced nicely, yet brings confidence from his US Open run. Plus, there’s the fact that he’s newly married, which has often led to great results soon after for others on Tour.
- Altmaier to Beat Sinner Second Round – Odds TBC
This is our crazy bet of the week, but hear us out. Sinner may be a heavy favorite to win this week. However, even the best have to take bad losses sometimes. At the height of their powers, Federer, Djokovic and Nadal still suffered upsets. Given Sinner has just lost to one player not named Alcaraz in the last 14 months, it’s just a matter of time until the Italian takes one of these losses.
Altmaier could well be the player to hand it to him. Why? Because he’s done it before. A little over two years ago, the German stunned Sinner in a second-round five-setter at Roland-Garros. A lot has changed since then, but Altmaier will bring a fragment of belief into this clash, and that may be all he needs if Sinner has an off day.
Of course, he needs to make the second round first. But if he does, the odds will be astronomical. Check them out at below sporstbooks later in the week, and take the punt if you dare.
