Musetti – Zverev
14.05.2025 20:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, Musetti defeated Virtanen in the opening round in straight sets, without facing a single breakpoint. In the third round, the Italian overcame Nakashima 6-4 6-3, allowing just one breakpoint and saving it. In today’s round of 16, Musetti prevailed over Medvedev in tight straight sets.
Alexander Zverev has also won four of his last five matches. The second seed and defending champion in Rome, Zverev claimed the title last year by beating Jarry in the final in straight sets. Today, he defeated Fils in the round of 16, also in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookmakers, Musetti enters as a slight underdog, but we see it differently. He consistently performs at a high level on clay. While Zverev has played solid tennis this week, his performances under pressure have been questionable throughout the season. We expect a similar outcome to last year’s Olympic Games, where Musetti emerged victorious.
With that in mind, Musetti winning is a value bet.
Value Bet / Best Odds: Musetti winning, at odds 2.29
Draper – Alcaraz
14.05.2025 15:00 CEST
H2H: 2-3
Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, he lost a tightly contested final against Ruud in three sets. In Rome, Draper opened with a win over Darderi and followed it up by defeating Kopriva in straight sets, saving all four breakpoints. In the round of 16, Draper came from a set down to beat Moutet in three sets. Last season in Rome, he was eliminated by Medvedev in the second round.
Carlos Alcaraz has also secured four wins in his last five matches. This is only his second appearance in Rome. He began his campaign with a 6-3 6-3 win over Lajovic, then turned around a slow start to defeat Djere in the third round. In the round of 16, Alcaraz faced his toughest test yet, battling past Khachanov in three tight sets after spending nearly three hours on court. In his previous Rome appearance, he was upset by Marozsan in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
The bookmakers list Alcaraz as the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is considered the top contender for the title and is currently the best clay-court player on the tour. While Draper has played well, his recent heavy schedule has taken a toll. He looked fatigued today against Moutet.
Considering all factors, Alcaraz winning in straight sets represents a strong value bet.
Value Bet / Best Odds: Carlos Alcaraz winning 2-0 @ 2.10
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