Only four to go at the ATP Madrid Masters and Jack Draper is currently the odds favorite to take home the title, following some impressive performances. These are our best bet recommendations and predictions for Draper vs Musetti and Cerundolo vs Ruud in the Madrid Open semifinals.
Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti
May 2, 2025 at 20:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: Draper leads 4-0
Jack Draper is enjoying a breakthrough run in Madrid, having won four of his last five matches. He started the tournament with a dominant performance over Tallon Griekspoor, not offering a single breakpoint and closing out the match in straight sets. In the third round, Draper led after the first set when Matteo Berrettini retired due to injury. The British left-hander continued his strong form in the quarterfinals by overpowering Matteo Arnaldi, again without facing a single breakpoint. His serve has been a key weapon, and he appears very comfortable on Madrid’s quicker clay courts. Find out more about Draper’s racquet setup.
Lorenzo Musetti, likewise, is riding a four-match win streak, each of those victories coming in straight sets. His route to the semifinals has been impressive, with wins over tough opponents such as Tomas Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur. In Thursdays quarterfinal, Musetti overcame a slow start against Gabriel Diallo, rallying from 2-4 down in the opening set to win convincingly.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Despite Musetti’s recent form, Jack Draper holds a significant psychological and tactical edge in this matchup. He leads the head-to-head 4-0, which includes a straight-sets win on clay. Draper’s powerful serve and aggressive baseline play have been especially effective in Madrid. Considering his form and historical dominance over Musetti, Draper is rightly favored.
Value Bet: Jack Draper to win @ 1.50, -200 or 1/2.
Francisco Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud
May 2, 2025 at 20:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: Cerundolo leads 5-3
Francisco Cerundolo has been showing strong form recently, winning four of his last five matches. His performance in Madrid this week has been particularly impressive. He began the tournament by securing two convincing victories in straight sets, displaying solid baseline control and mental composure. In the round of 16, the Argentine extended his winning streak by defeating Alexander Zverev, once again in straight sets, proving his adaptability and resilience on clay.
In today’s quarterfinals, Cerundolo faced a stern challenge from Czech rising star Jakub Mensik. After dropping the first set 3-6, Cerundolo managed to steady his game, showing great composure under pressure. He turned the match around and clinched a hard-fought victory in three tightly contested sets. With this win, Cerundolo has reached his best-ever result at the Madrid Masters, marking a significant milestone in his career.
On the other side of the net stands Casper Ruud, who also comes into the semifinal with four wins in his last five matches. The Norwegian has been in superb form all week, having not dropped a single set throughout the tournament. He began his campaign with routine wins and continued his dominance by defeating Taylor Fritz in the round of 16, 7-5, 6-4. Ruud maintained full control throughout the match and showed excellent shot selection and consistency.
In the quarterfinals, Ruud faced world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev and delivered one of his most composed performances of the season. He claimed victory in straight sets and, notably, saved both breakpoints he faced, underlining his calmness and strategic approach under pressure. Compared to last season, when he exited in the fourth round in Madrid, Ruud has clearly taken a step forward in terms of confidence and court craft.
Best Bet Recommendation:
Although the bookmakers have set this matchup as an even contest, we believe there is clear value in backing Casper Ruud. Cerundolo had to battle for more than two hours today, and he appeared to struggle at times with unforced errors. In contrast, Ruud has been dominant and efficient, winning all four of his matches in straight sets. Furthermore, Ruud has prevailed in the last two clay-court meetings against Cerundolo without dropping a set. Based on recent form and historical performance on this surface, Ruud should have the upper hand.
Value Bet: Casper Ruud to win @ 1.80, -125 or 4/5.
