Indian Wells 2025 Draw, Best Odds, Favorites and Predictions

The first Masters event of the 2025 season takes place this week, with both tennis tours flocking to Indian Wells for 12 days of action. It might just be the most popular Masters-level tournament, and is often called the fifth Grand Slam event. Like every year, it will feature the best players in the world.

It’s also one of the last hard court events until the late summer, so those that want to make a big splash in these conditions get one of the final chances in a while. Another thing that makes it unique is the slowness of the courts, which at the very least ensures a Daniil Medvedev rant to let’s see how this one might go.

ATP Indian Wells Odds and Favorites

A total of 96 men will compete in Indian Wells, but only one can lift the trophy. Who will it be? For context, here’s what the latest bookmaker odds and the tournament’s seeding has to say.

Men’s Indian Wells Open Betting Odds

Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.40 (+240)

Novak Djokovic @ 7.00 (+600)

Alexander Zverev @ 8.00 (+700)

Daniil Medvedev @ 12.00 (+1100)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 17.00 (+1600)

Taylor Fritz @ 19.00 (+1800)

To the surprise of nobody, Carlos Alcaraz is the bookmaker’s favorite to defend his Indian Wells title, paying 3.40 (+240). The Spaniard has won this event back-to-back, and sits head and shoulders above the rest of the field in these conditions.

Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic are seen as the world No 3’s only real competition over the next fortnight, with the pair sitting on the second line of betting. Behind these two are former finalist Daniil Medvedev, recent Dubai winner Tsitsipas and home hope Taylor Fritz (at 19 times the money) to round out the top five betting favorites.

Top Men’s Seeds in Indian Wells

Alexander Zverev
Carlos Alcaraz
Taylor Fritz
Casper Ruud
Daniil Medvedev
Novak Djokovic
Andrey Rublev
Stefanos Tsitsipas

This year’s seeds list of the event is a rather interesting one, as in the absence of Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev is the top seed. The German is ahead of Alcaraz, who is the defending champion and second seed. Former champion Taylor Fritz is the third seed, while Casper Ruud is somewhat surprisingly, seed number four.

Last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev is the fifth seed with Novak Djokovic only coming in at number six. Rublev is number seven, with Tsitsipas being the eighth seed. It’s a very interesting list and quite different from the bookies’ odds, implying that seedings don’t always reflect what is expected to happen.

Seeding is based on the ranking, which is a cumulative metric representing what these players did in the months leading up to this. The odds are calculated based on many factors including current form and previous results, and it’s the metric that most accurately shows the state of affairs in tennis.

Betting Tips and Predictions for the ATP Indian Wells Masters 1000

After seeing what the bookmakers predict, here are our thoughts ahead of your Indian Wells Masters betting. It’s a somewhat tricky event to figure out because plenty of surprises happen every year – just looking at the list of past champions shows how unpredictable it can be.

Alcaraz to Win

With Sinner being out of the picture this Indian Wells, the natural conclusion is that Alcaraz will win the event. Even with the Italian here, he may well have been our pick. The Spaniard has been utterly spectacular at the event so far because the slower conditions simply allow him to dominate.

He has time to set up his forehand and the slowness also helps with his defensive capabilities. Overall, it’s just a court on which he literally flies and very few players have the ability to trouble him. Sinner is one of them, and with him gone, the field barely has a chance if Alcaraz shows up with his best level.

There is always a chance that he doesn’t, but with the way he’s played here in the past, it’s unlikely that he’ll feel anything but comfortable and he should be well rested as well. Slow hard courts have been his forte as he has won in Rotterdam this year and in Beijing last year.

Djokovic to Lose in Quarters

With the way the draw went, Djokovic will face Alcaraz in the quarter-final. With our predictions above, it’s pretty clear what that means for the Serbian. It simply means a loss, even though Djokovic bested Alcaraz in the last match they played this year and in a few before that.

The conditions simply here are very favorable for Alcaraz and Djokovic lacks the power to really hit through Alcaraz. That’s not a problem for Alcaraz, so if he plays his tennis here and attacks relentlessly, he should be able to wear down Djokovic enough to beat him. That is if Djokovic even makes it to the quarter-final, which is a question mark as well.

We predict the former No 1 will manage to navigate a challenging first few rounds to make the last eight. With Andy Murray at his side, it’s clear that Djokovic won’t be taking Indian Wells lightly: he’s here to play, and that usually means a deep run.

Medvedev to Not Make Final

Medvedev has made two finals in a row here, losing both to Alcaraz easily. While he’s gone on record loathing the conditions here, it’s kind of worked out for him. He simply can sit back 15 meters behind the baseline and bounce the ball back, waiting for the opponent to make a mistake.

The only reason to counter that is to hit through him, which very few players can on these slow courts. Massive power is needed, and outside of Alcaraz, few players in the draw have it. Even so, we don’t think he’ll make the final simply because he hasn’t played that well for some time now.

The Russian has lost some really winnable matchups this year, and we think it’s likely going to happen again. His frustration level is through the roof these days, and it’s really hurting his focus.