The final day of round-robin action in the Jimmy Connors Group at the Nitto ATP Finals should deliver drama, with all four players still in contention for the two semi-final spots. In fact, there are 10 different qualification scenarios for the semifinals. Thursday’s matches – Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti – will determine who advances in Turin.
Afternoon Session: Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Minaur
- Head-to-Head: Tied at 5-5.
This afternoon’s clash is a win-and-in scenario for Taylor Fritz, while Alex de Minaur faces a much tougher road to qualification. Both players are coming off tough three-set defeats on Tuesday.
The 2024 finalist, Fritz, enters the match knowing a victory of any kind will send him straight into the semi-finals. Even a three-set loss may be enough, depending on the Alcaraz/Musetti result, but the American will be focused on a definitive win.
The American opened with a strong straight-sets win over Musetti but let a one-set lead slip against Alcaraz in a really good battle. His power and dominant serve are well-suited to the indoor hard court, and he will look to take command against the fast-moving Australian.
Fritz has won the last two indoor meetings between the two, including a three-set victory in the round-robin stage of last year’s ATP Finals.
Alex de Minaur
De Minaur finds himself in the most precarious position. After two tough losses, including squandering a 5-3 third-set lead against Musetti, his mind and body will be tested.
The Australian has played excellent tennis in spells but has failed to close out matches, something we’ve seen before, especially against top ranked players. To keep his hopes alive, De Minaur must win this match in straight sets. He would then need Carlos Alcaraz to defeat Lorenzo Musetti later in the day.
De Minaur will need his signature speed and strong defense to force errors from Fritz, but he must also find a way to be more aggressive and convert opportunities.
Predictions for Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur
Fritz is currently the better player and big favorite among the betting sites, at odds around 1.36 (-275). However, de Minaur has managed quite well in their previous matches and he can’t keep on losing vs top 10 opponents. The offensive game of Fritz vs de Minaurs defensive skills should be interesting. De Minaur needs a straight-sets win here which will be tough but he might be able to cover the handicap line.
Our bet: Game Handicap, de Minaur (4.5)
Evening Session: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
- Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 6-1.
The night match features the Group’s leader against the home favorite in what is arguably the most consequential match of the round-robin stage. For Carlitos, a semi-final spot and the year-end World No. 1 ranking are on the line. For Musetti, it’s a chance to cap off his dream debut with a spot in the final four in front of the Italian crowd.
Alcaraz has been very solid this week, especially in his come-from-behind victory over Fritz. The Spaniard can secure first place in the group and the World No. 1 ranking by winning this match. Even winning one set will guarantee him a semi-final spot.
Despite his dominant 6-1 head-to-head, Alcaraz faces a local hero playing with nothing to lose. The Spaniard will need to be sharp from the start this time, especially after his long battle on Tuesday.
Musetti has ridden a wave of home support to keep his qualification hopes alive, managing a brilliant comeback to defeat Alex de Minaur on Tuesday night.
Musetti’s situation is depending on the afternoon result. A win over Alcaraz would guarantee his spot in the semi-finals. If he loses, he will be eliminated, or his fate will depend on the Fritz/De Minaur result and a complex calculation of sets and games won/lost.
He has only beaten Alcaraz once, back in 2022 which was followed by 6 straight defeats and it doesn’t look much easier today.
Predictions for Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Alcaraz has steadily improved by each match and he looks fully motivated here in Turin as much is at stake. Musetti will have the crowd with him but it won’t be enough this time, as he must also feel some fatigue following a lot of tough matches recently. I can see a tight first set but then a clearer win for the world no 1.
Our bet: Alcaraz in two sets, at odds 1.47 (-225)
