In tennis, unexpected changes are part of the game. Players withdraw, qualifying matches finish, schedules move around, and occasionally, someone who thought their tournament was over gets another chance.
This is the lucky loser.
A lucky loser is a player who loses in qualifying but subsequently enters the main draw after a vacancy opens, usually because of a withdrawal. The exact process varies depending on the tournament and timing of the withdrawal, but at ATP Tour level, lucky losers are generally drawn from players who lost in qualifying, with the order determined by the tournament’s rules and rankings.
For bettors, these situations are interesting because the usual pre-match assumptions can suddenly become less reliable.
That doesn’t automatically make a lucky loser a good bet. But it can create a match that deserves a closer look.
For sportsbooks, like the 5Gringos online sportsbook and similar platforms, a late withdrawal can create a particularly tricky pricing situation. The original odds were built around a specific matchup, and replacing one player with a lucky loser can change the dynamics of the match almost instantly.
The market has to reassess a new player, a new tactical matchup and potentially different physical and preparation factors, often with limited time before the match begins. That doesn’t necessarily mean the sportsbook has made a mistake, but it can create a short window where the available price may not yet fully reflect everything that has changed.
The “Nothing to Lose” Theory
One of the most appealing ideas surrounding lucky losers is psychological.
A player can spend several days fighting through qualifying, lose the final qualifying match and begin thinking about their next tournament. Then, sometimes hours later, they receive the call that they are back in the main draw.
There is an obvious psychological narrative here: I’ve already lost, so anything that happens now is a bonus.
Players themselves have occasionally described the experience in similar terms. When Soonwoo Kwon won the 2023 Adelaide International 2 title as a lucky loser, he explained that after losing in qualifying he felt he had “nothing to lose” and subsequently went all the way to the title.
But it’s important not to turn that into a universal rule.
A lucky loser can also be tired, disappointed, surprised by the opportunity or underprepared for a new opponent. Some may feel enormous pressure precisely because they have suddenly been handed another chance.
So rather than assuming that every lucky loser is playing with “zero pressure,” it’s probably better to view motivation and mental state as variables worth considering.
The Physical Question May Matter More
The more concrete question is often what happened in qualifying.
Imagine two players who both lose in the final round of qualifying.
One loses 6-2, 6-1 in 55 minutes.
The other loses 7-6 in the third set after three hours in brutal conditions.
On paper, they are both lucky losers. Physically, they may be in completely different situations.
That’s why the qualifying match itself can provide useful context.
Look at:
- Match duration
- Number of sets played
- Previous matches during qualifying
- Conditions on the day
- Whether the player has had sufficient recovery time
- Whether the player was dealing with an injury or physical issue
Of course, a quick qualifying loss doesn’t guarantee freshness either. A player could have been carrying an injury or simply be struggling with form.
The point is that the label “lucky loser” tells you very little about the player’s physical condition by itself.
The Preparation Factor
There is another interesting element: preparation.
A player preparing for a scheduled opponent may suddenly discover that the opponent has withdrawn and been replaced by a lucky loser.
That can happen relatively close to match time, depending on when the withdrawal occurs.
The tactical preparation therefore changes. Instead of facing the player they studied and expected, they may have to adapt to a completely different game.
This can be particularly interesting when the replacement has a very different style.
A big server replacing a counterpuncher? A left-hander replacing a right-hander? A player who attacks the net replacing someone who plays several metres behind the baseline?
These changes don’t automatically favour the lucky loser. But they can create uncertainty that wasn’t present when the original matchup was announced.
And uncertainty is exactly the kind of thing that makes a match worth examining more closely.
The Lucky Loser Examples
There are some spectacular examples of lucky losers making the most of their second chance.
The most famous recent example is probably Jan-Lennard Struff at the 2023 Madrid Open.
Struff lost to Aslan Karatsev in the final round of qualifying, but subsequently entered the main draw as a lucky loser. He went on an extraordinary run, defeating players including Lorenzo Sonego and Stefanos Tsitsipas before beating Karatsev in the semi-finals, the same player who had eliminated him in qualifying.
Struff ultimately reached the final, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. He became the first lucky loser to reach an ATP Masters 1000 final. And Struff wasn’t an isolated case.
In 2023, Soonwoo Kwon went from losing in Adelaide qualifying to winning the ATP 250 title. He defeated his qualifying conqueror Tomas Machac in the first round and eventually beat Roberto Bautista Agut in the final.
There have also been other tour-level lucky-loser champions, including Andrey Rublev, Marco Cecchinato and several players from earlier eras.
These stories are great reminders that losing in qualifying doesn’t necessarily mean a player’s level is far below that of the main-draw field.
But they shouldn’t be interpreted as proof that lucky losers are automatically profitable betting opportunities.
Exceptional runs are memorable precisely because they are exceptional.
What About the Betting Market?
This is where things get more interesting, and where a late substitution can give bettors another angle to consider.
When a lucky loser replaces a player shortly before a match, the available odds are now based on a new matchup. The original market was built around a different opponent, so the substitution can change the factors that bettors need to evaluate before deciding whether a price is attractive.
Rather than assuming that sportsbooks have mispriced the situation, it is more useful to look at how the new matchup changes the overall picture.
For example, consider:
1. How did the lucky loser qualify?
Was the player pushed to the limit over several days, or did they spend relatively little time on court?
2. How much rest have they had?
The timing of the withdrawal matters. A player receiving the call shortly before a match may have very different circumstances from one who gets several hours to recover and prepare.
3. What is the matchup?
Don’t simply look at rankings. A tall, aggressive server may present a completely different challenge from the player originally scheduled to compete. The replacement’s return ability, movement, preferred rally patterns and handedness can all matter.
4. Has the favourite actually played yet?
A player who has already competed at the tournament may have valuable information about the conditions.
This is where the “court familiarity” theory becomes relevant. A qualifier may have spent several days playing on the tournament’s courts, while an opponent entering the tournament for the first time may still be adjusting to the speed, bounce and conditions.
Again, though, this is a factor, not a guaranteed advantage.
5. What does the price say?
This is arguably the most important part. A late substitution does not automatically mean the odds are favourable to either player. The key is to assess the new matchup and determine whether the available price fairly reflects the probability you assign to the outcome.
In other words, the arrival of a lucky loser can create a new betting angle rather than an automatic betting opportunity. The most useful approach is to treat the substitution as a reason to reassess the matchup from scratch, rather than relying too heavily on the assumptions that shaped the original market.
So, Should You Bet Lucky Losers?
Not automatically. The useful lesson is that a lucky-loser situation should prompt more investigation, not an automatic bet.
Before considering a wager, look at the qualifying match, recovery time, surface, conditions, playing styles, opponent preparation and – most importantly – the price.
A lucky loser can be physically fresh and tactically well suited to the opponent.
They can also be exhausted, disappointed and suddenly asked to play a completely different match from the one they had prepared for.
