Sundays anticipated final at the Rome Masters features probably the two best players in the world right now: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. This will be their 11th meeting on tour, with Alcaraz holding a narrow 6-4 edge in the head-to-head.
Date & Time: May 18, 2025 – 12:00 CEST
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 6-4
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz enters the final on a five-match winning streak, showing strong form throughout the tournament. This is only his second appearance in the Italian capital and he began his campaign with a solid 6-3, 6-3 win over Dusan Lajovic. In the third round, he was briefly tested by Laslo Djere, falling behind 1-3 in the first set before recovering to take control.
His most demanding match came in the round of 16 against Karen Khachanov. In a grueling battle that lasted nearly three hours, Alcaraz prevailed in three sets. He followed that up with a straight-sets win over Jack Draper in the quarterfinals, again rallying from a 2-4 deficit in the first set.
In the semifinals, Alcaraz faced Lorenzo Musetti. He looked sharp under pressure once again, winning 6-3, 7-6 in two hours, overcoming another mid-set deficit. His performances have consistently demonstrated both mental toughness and physical endurance. It’s worth noting that last year, Alcaraz lost in the third round in his Rome debut, but this year he has looked far more composed and focused.
Jannik Sinner, meanwhile, is riding an incredible 29-match winning streak and has been the standout player of the 2025 season. He returned to action in Rome after his doping suspension and has immediately re-established himself as a force.
Sinner cruised through his early matches, defeating Mariano Navone and Jesper de Jong in straight sets. While de Jong managed to break Sinner’s serve twice, the Italian remained largely in control. In the round of 16, Francisco Cerundolo pushed him, but Sinner still prevailed in two sets.
His most dominant showing came in the quarterfinals, where he dismantled Casper Ruud 6-0, 6-1, facing no break points and serving with clinical precision. However, his semifinal clash with Tommy Paul presented a true test. After losing the first set 1-6, Sinner stormed back to win 6-0, 6-3.
Best Bet to Make
Despite Sinner’s undefeated streak, bookmakers have made Alcaraz a slight underdog. However, we see value in backing the Spaniard. While Sinner has been dominant overall, he has shown some inconsistency on serve. Alcaraz, by contrast, has gained momentum with each round and has proven his ability to thrive under pressure.
Given his form and past success against Sinner on clay, a strong case can be made for Alcaraz to at least cover the games handicap.
Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 games handicap (-110, 1.91 or 10/11)
Head over to our betting section if you want to place a wager on the final.
