It’s round three at Flushing Meadows, and we’re starting to see some upsets here and there. Today we’ll look at two interesting matches, Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Rinderknech, with our predictions and best bets.
Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov
Ben Shelton, the 8th seed, has needed four sets in both of his matches so far, most recently grinding past Hubert Hurkacz 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 7-5. It’s now the fourth straight year he’s reached the third round in New York, where he was a semifinalist back in 2023. Ben is looking more and more like a real contender for the title here on home soil.
Shapovalov has had an up-and-down season overall, but he looked sharp in round two, cruising past Luca Van Assche 6-0, 6-4, 7-6(7).
Shelton holds a commanding 4-0 head-to-head lead, 2-0 on outdoor hard courts.
Predictions and best bets
The head-to-head is about as one-sided as it gets between two players of this caliber, and I think Shelton’s game is a bad matchup for the Canadian. I’d expect Shapovalov to get his chances given his own explosive ceiling, but he still shows inconsistencies and Shelton should have enough answers.
My bet: Shelton to win in three sets.
Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech
Medvedev has shown efficiency so far, needing no more than three sets in either match and beating Sebastian Gorzny 6-1, 6-3, 7-5 in round two without ever having his own serve broken. Is he setting up for one of his famous deep runs again?
Rinderknech has been in career-best form over the last twelve months, climbing from outside the top 80 to a career-high No. 24, and he showed real fight to close out Jaume Munar 7-6(4), 6-2, 7-5.
Their head-to-head is tied 1-1: Medvedev won their first meeting at the 2022 US Open, before Rinderknech got his revenge in last year’s Shanghai semifinal, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Predictions and best bets
Medvedev’s counterpunching and return game are a tough matchup for a big server like Rinderknech, and he’s looked great on serve himself so far this week. Two players that are hard to predict at times but I’d lean toward Medvedev’s greater big-match experience here. When he has a good start in Slams, he usually goes far.
