It’s title day at the 2026 Rolex Shanghai Masters, and it’s not the pairing most would have thought. It it looks very interesting though and we have two Spanish players in great form facing off. Here’s a preview for today’s Shanghai final, Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with our predictions and best bet.
Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
It’s an all-Spanish final in Shanghai, and a guaranteed first Spanish men’s singles champion in the event’s history, with neither finalist having won a Masters 1000 title before.
Jodar, 20, is the youngest finalist in Shanghai Masters history, and the story of his week has been the comeback: he lost the opening set in each of his first four wins, against Tirante, Lehecka, van de Zandschulp and Ruud, the last of them 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the quarterfinals. Then he got the job done in a much cleaner fashion against Medvedev, a former champion, winning 6-3, 6-4 in 1 hour 44 minutes in the semifinals.
Jodar started the year at No. 168 and is now No. 13, and after this tournament he’s heading into the top 10 for the first time and up to sixth in the Race to Turin. What a season.
Davidovich Fokina has done it the hard way too. He saved a match point against Tiafoe in the third round, came back from 1-6 down against Hurkacz, and got a lucky break when Gea retired in the quarterfinals after just 22 minutes, before beating top seed Zverev 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals.
Zverev, serving at 2-5 in the third, saved two match points before being broken again and losing the match. It’s the first win over a top-five opponent this year for the Spaniard, and his ninth in a row in China, a streak that includes the Chengdu title two weeks ago.
It’s also his second Masters 1000 final, with his first being a loss to Tsitsipas in Monte-Carlo in 2022, and he’s ranked No. 26, though he’s projected to be back inside the top 20 on Monday.
H2H
This is a first meeting between the two.
Predictions and best bets – Jodar vs Davidovich Fokina
Both players have been grinding for a week, so freshness is one question of course. This will be a real battle for the Shanghai title.
We now know the level and consistency of Jodar after this season, and he’s only 20 years old… He will surely both a lot of pressure on his opponent today from both wings as we’re used to.
Davidovich Fokina has played 11 matches on the Asian swing and just came through a three-set semifinal with Zverev, while Jodar’s semifinal was straightforward and he’s shown he will usually raise his level as a tournament goes on.
Davidovich Fokina has been in superb form and his serves are one of the best on tour recently. He also has the experience of a previous Masters final and the recent winning habit, so I wouldn’t be surprised by an “upset” here. He was long knows as one of the best players to never win a title but now he’s got two and I think he won’t stop there.
My bet: I think we will see three sets and I’m going for Davidovich Fokina at +2.5 Game Handicap, at odds around 1.70 or -143.
