It’s day three at the National Bank Open, here’s a preview for two of today’s second-round matches in Montreal, Frances Tiafoe vs. Marin Cilic and Gabriel Diallo vs. Luciano Darderi, with our betting picks and best bets.
Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic
The 15th seed gets going in Montreal off the back of a first-round bye, and Tiafoe will be the favorite here. He’s currently No. 20 in the world and enjoying a solid season, with a career win rate close to 71% in 2026. Following a great grass swing, he surprisingly went out in the first round in DC (against Atmane) and needs a solid win here to get his hard-court swing started.
Cilic, meanwhile, is deep into his comeback season and now down at no 85 in the world. The former US Open champion and one-time world no 3 managed a 7-6(2), 6-1 win over Sho Shimabukuro in the first round, but he arrives on the back of a rough stretch, with early exits at both Queen’s and Wimbledon before that.
Cilic leads their head-to-head 2-0, but they haven’t met in quite some time, last meeting was back in 2018 so we have a completely different situation now.
Predictions and best bets
Cilic still has the serve and the flat, heavy groundstrokes to trouble anyone on a good day, but he’s been dropping first sets regularly of late and Tiafoe has the fresher legs after his bye. The Croatian does not cover the court as well as he used to to and I think Tiafoe will try to dictate play from the start today.
My bet: Tiafoe to win in straight sets, at odds around 2.38 (+137.5).
Gabriel Diallo vs Luciano Darderi
One of the home favorites, Diallo, gets a rare moment in the spotlight after grinding past Kyrian Jacquet 6-7(1), 6-3, 6-2 in the first round on Sunday. It’s been a tough season for the Canadian, who came in having lost 8 of his last 11 matches and is now ranked 108 in the world, so that win in front of his own crowd should be a real confidence boost.
Darderi, the 19th seed, is coming off a retirement in Los Cabos last week with an arm issue, but he told Italian media the follow-up scan came back clean and that he expects to be fine to play. Still, going from a forced withdrawal straight into a Masters 1000 against a motivated home player on a quick hard court is not the easiest reset, especially with his best results this year having come on clay.
This is a first meeting between the two, so no history to lean on here.
Predictions and best bets
Diallo has never gotten past the first round in Montreal in his career, but he’ll have the crowd firmly behind him and has the bigger game to trouble Darderi on a fast surface, IF his serve is working the way it did for most games against Jacquet.
This could be an entertaining match, Darderi’s fitness is the swing factor. His overall form this year and consistency from the back of the court could give him an edge, but this is clearly not his favorite surface.
My bet: Diallo to edge out a win in three sets, at odds around 4.00 (+300)
